Thursday, August 19, 2004

August 19 Daily Philippine Stock Market Review: Locals Dictate Tempo

August 19 Daily Philippine Stock Market Review: Locals Dictate Tempo

Local buying spurred the Phisix higher by 1.09% or 16.9 points on a lean volume of P 412.311 million (US$ 7.363 million).

Even as foreign net capital flows registered a net inflow of P 24.730 million the nub of today’s buying interest was directed at Ayala Corp (+3.7%) which comprised two-thirds of the firm’s output and about a third of the cumulative net buying. Among the Phisix heavyweights and the broader market, foreign money was mostly bearish, as more issues posted outflows against inflows (6-3 for the heavyweights, 18-8 on the broad market). Aside foreign money constituted only 43.96% of today’s turnover.

Market breadth was obviously bullish despite the thin volume, gainers beat losers by 38 to 27 while industry subindices were all positive led by oil and property issues. Index heavyweights were mostly up led by foreign propelled Ayala Corp., Ayala Land (+3.8%), SM Primeholdings (+1.79%), Bank of the Philippine Islands (+1.23%), San Miguel A (+.86%), PLDT (+.8%) and Globe Telecoms (+.56%) while San Miguel B and Metrobank were unchanged.

Compared to the previous sessions, today’s rally was practically in line with the positive outlook seen in the rest of the Asian region where, as of this writing, 12 of the 15 bourses are up, reflecting yesterday’s robust gains in Wall Street. However, the locals being today’s market driver generated a less than convincing upside performance given the scanty volume. Foreign investors, on the other hand, had reversed their positive stance during the past two days leading to the steep fall of the Phisix while today’s activities still mirrors the cautious and selective posture in terms of accumulations, at the same time reducing their portfolio positions in the broader market. In other words, the locals are bullish and providing the cushion to the market while the foreigners are still slightly bearish. Unless we see a tandem of bullishness from both local and domestic investors, the Phisix is likely to trade in a tight range.

In technical terms, the Phisix bounced off its major support trend line, which was tested yesterday, and thus far had been a healthy manifestation of its year long uptrend.



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