Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Pavlovian Markets Rise on Hopes of the Bernanke Put

More bad news is good news.

Asian equity markets rises on HOPES that Ben Bernanke will (tonight) deliver the much sought after opiate.

From Bloomberg,

Asian stocks advanced for a third day, oil climbed and the Japanese yen weakened as an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales stoked speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will hint at further stimulus today. Corn rose toward a record as U.S. crop conditions worsened…

Bernanke will deliver his semiannual report on the economy and monetary policy before Congress today, after a report yesterday showing a contraction in June retail sales kindled speculation the Fed will introduce more measures to support the world’s largest economy. Corn has risen 55 percent since June 15 as further evidence of damage from the worst U.S. drought in a generation stoked concern yields will drop, hurting output in the biggest exporter and lifting global food costs.

“There is market positioning for Bernanke to deliver something today,” said Joseph Capurso, a strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest lender. “There is a high risk of more policy easing before the end of this year.”

A third monthly drop in U.S. retail sales showed limited employment gains are taking a toll on the biggest part of the economy. The IMF lowered its 2013 forecast for global economic growth yesterday to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent as Europe’s debt crisis prolongs Spain’s recession and slows expansions in emerging markets from China to India.

Will hope become reality or will the Bernanke led FOMC give in to the yearnings of the steroid addicted markets?

What happens if the FOMC spurns the markets’ slabbering for more stimulants?

Until when will hope be able to forestall reality?

No comments: