tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post5360369667337666701..comments2023-10-20T20:56:21.432+08:00Comments on prudent investor newsletters: A Philippine Shopping Mall Bubble?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-54495145847139745612013-05-31T01:46:15.610+08:002013-05-31T01:46:15.610+08:00Totally agree with you guys.Totally agree with you guys.Jenefer @ PriceMe Philippineshttp://www.priceme.com.ph/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-45336187103423999372013-01-10T09:42:43.490+08:002013-01-10T09:42:43.490+08:00John
I may add. On mango bubble. If the world ...John <br /><br />I may add. On mango bubble. If the world mango production does go up consistently 20% per annum, while demand grows say 3-5% per annum eventually there will be an excess supply. This applies to anything scarce and has economic value. Econ 101<br /><br />Benson<br />benson_tehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17567135828529262502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-54005500984862310452013-01-10T09:02:36.381+08:002013-01-10T09:02:36.381+08:00John,
you say, Could we not also say that mango p...John,<br /><br />you say, Could we not also say that mango production is up 20% and therefore there is a mango bubble? <br /><br />While Mango is a domestic commodity, its market is global. Malls, on the other hand, depends mostly on local spending. yest there is a tourism factor, but this is small. So this is really an apples to orange comparison.<br /><br />Vacancy rates today may not be the same in the future.<br /><br />Hope this helps,<br /><br />Benson benson_tehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17567135828529262502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-49479482489933959052013-01-10T06:37:15.209+08:002013-01-10T06:37:15.209+08:00Yes I agree with you on those points. I am just no...Yes I agree with you on those points. I am just not sure that the growth rate of the number of malls or GLA can be compared to GDP growth. Could we not also say that mango production is up 20% and therefore there is a mango bubble? Possibly, as then mango prices would go down. Therefore, I would say a more accurate way to measure a 'mall bubble' would be to look vacancy rates at the malls which might be considered a free market price measure of supply and demand. I wonder if that data is available any place? Cheers my friend.john mangunhttp://mangunonmarkets.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-56810286839250267762013-01-09T10:31:10.180+08:002013-01-09T10:31:10.180+08:00John
Thanks for your comments.
You say
"As...John<br /><br />Thanks for your comments.<br /><br />You say<br /><br />"As long as there is enough biz at the malls to pay to keep those gathering places open, there is not a bubble"<br /><br />Here is what I said, <br /><br />"The current shopping mall boom will not only depend on a sustained low interest rate environment but will likewise depend on the greater rate of growth of income—via economic output from both formal and informal economy and from remittance transfers—relative to rate of growth of supply of malls. Debt will temporary augment spending, but has its limits.<br /><br />'Once supply of malls grows faster than the consumer’s capacity to spend (income and debt), then trouble lies ahead."<br /><br />Let me make this clear<br /><br />If the malls grow 15% per annum and the economy (formal including remittances+ informal) grows 7%, how will there be enough biz for these malls to sustain their existence? Via debt? And up to what extent?<br /><br />In my view, these are the conditions or the questions that need to be satisfied. And not mere conclusions based on biases.<br /><br />Benson<br /><br /><br />benson_tehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17567135828529262502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7405358.post-9561682986684431122013-01-09T06:32:05.226+08:002013-01-09T06:32:05.226+08:00Benson, malls are not just shopping places. Partic...Benson, malls are not just shopping places. Particularly in PHL, malls are social gathering places like the town square and also a substitute for parks and the like. That is true for the US, not so much for EU. As long as there is enough biz at the malls to pay to keep those gathering places open, there is not a bubble. Everything has an economic component but not every component is economic.john mangunhttp://mangunonmarkets.comnoreply@blogger.com