The Parallels Of The Philippine Con Ass And The Honduran Political Crisis

In a recent post on Philippine politics, particularly, the brouhaha over the CON ASS we wrote, ``We must remember, in politics, those in power will always work or attempt to preserve their political privileges, while those in the periphery will always work or attempt to usurp such privileges. Such is the vicious cycle of politics.’ [See Philippine Politics: "Con Ass" Much Ado About Nothing?]

Well, the ongoing political crisis in Honduras could be interpreted as a seeming parallel to the local Con Ass situation. Basically, it's about an attempt by the incumbent political leader to extend his stay in power.

Honduran President Jose Manual Zelaya wanted to force a referendum on his people to approve a new constitution to achieve this goal.

Sounds familiar?

This from Cato’s Juan Hidalgo,

``Zelaya, a close ally of Hugo Chávez, is barred from pursuing a second term in the general elections in November.

``Unfortunately for Zelaya, he doesn’t have the backing of his own party, much less any other major political group. So he has moved unilaterally to call for a referendum on the need for a new constitution. The vote, which is scheduled for this Sunday, has been declared illegal by the Supreme Court and the Electoral Tribunal, and condemned by the Honduran Congress and attorney general (whose office is not part of the cabinet in Honduras).

``Despite the widespread institutional opposition to his plans, Zelaya is pushing for the vote. On Wednesday he ordered the Honduran armed forces to start distributing the ballots and other electoral materials throughout the country. The army chief, complying with the Supreme Court ruling, refused to obey the order. Zelaya sacked him, which prompted the resignation of all other leading army officers and the defense minister.”

``The attorney general is asking Congress to impeach Zelaya for violating the institutional order and abusing his powers. Last night, the Congress discussed removing Zelaya from his office. The president is defiant and has accused the Congress of attempting a coup.``The attorney general is asking Congress to impeach Zelaya for violating the institutional order and abusing his powers. Last night, the Congress discussed removing Zelaya from his office. The president is defiant and has accused the Congress of attempting a coup.”

But events unfolded quite hastily out of desperation.

It didn’t take long for the Honduras military to mount a coup and successfully oust President Zelaya which sent him into exile in Costa Rica (CNN Blog).

The Honduran Congress swiftly responded by legally stripping Pres. Zelaya of the Presidency and appointed a provisional president in Roberto Micheletti (CNN Blog)

Meanwhile Zelaya’s ally Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez has threatened to intervene militarily-by invasion (guardian).

As of this writing, the Honduran political crisis still remains unresolved.

As in the earlier post, I think PGMA understands that the Honduran Crisis could be the most probable outcome if her followers insist to let her remain in office.

Given her unpopularity, its almost a no win probability for her if she adamantly opts for this route. And this is why I think, the Con Ass controversy, seems more of a diversionary tactic than an outright attempt to grab power.

Nonetheless all these reeks of what Lord Acton once warned of, ``Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely”

Philippine Politics: "Con Ass" Much Ado About Nothing?

I have not been following the controversy over the so called Constitutional Assembly (Con-Ass) or an attempt by adherents of the present administration to railroad a modification on the Philippine constitution purportedly for extending the tenure of incumbent officials.

It's because my interpretation of the furor has been more of a "noise" than of a genuine concern.

From an intuitive layman's point of view I would require answers to these questions:

1. Is there a legal basis to amend the Philippine constitution with only one house of the bicameral legislative branch in support of such action?

2. Assuming there is, since any amendment would require a people's referendum or plebiscite, would there be a legal framework for a CON ASS referendum to supersede next year's scheduled national elections?

3. And would there be enough resources and time earmarked to do so?

In my view, a NO answer to any of these 3 questions would likely torpedo these efforts to advance the CON ASS agenda.

Notwithstanding, considering the unpopularity of the present administration, legal hurdles can be utilized by the political opposition to derail such agenda. This would essentially constrict the window for a referendum, in lieu of or prior to next year's national elections.

In short, such actions doesn't look feasible even from the start.

Then why does it seem that the administration has been adamant to play this card?

We offer two guesses here:

One, it could be a diversionary tactic to lure the political opposition into concentrating their efforts over such useless issue while the administration, behind their backs, works to strengthen its logistics and networks in preparation for the upcoming national election.

Two, it could also be a trial balloon to gauge on the "winnability" of PGMA's "anointed" bets via her popularity going into next year's election.

It is political season in the Philippines hence most sensationalist events disseminated by media, including the Halili Kho scandal, are likely to be instruments for political agenda.

As I responded to a colleague at a recent social function:

We must remember, in politics, those in power will always work or attempt to preserve their political privileges, while those in the periphery will always work or attempt to usurp such privileges. Such is the vicious cycle of politics.

Why? Because political privileges are usually products of an interventionist welfare state. Where, to quote Richard Eberling, ``The political process is the mechanism that these individuals and groups use to get that money via regulation, protections, and redistribution."

Politics is hardly about social "weal" or the "people" as much as it has been bruited about, it's mostly about privileges.