Mexico’s Government Declares War on Cash

The war on cash transactions has been gaining traction among governments. Crisis stricken European countries as Italy, Spain and Greece have earlier initiated the curtailment in the use of cash. 

The Mexican government has joined this bandwagon by announcing a ban on “large” cash transactions supposedly to stem money laundering, most likely emanating from the drug war.

From the Washington Post 

Mexican President Felipe Calderon has signed into law a ban on large cash transactions as part of an effort to fight money laundering that experts estimate may amount to around $10 billion per year in Mexico.

The bill forbids buyers and sellers from giving or accepting cash payments of more than a half million pesos ($38,750) for real-estate purchases. It also forbids cash purchases of more than 200,000 pesos ($15,500) for automobiles or items like jewelry and lottery tickets.

It is kindda odd for governments to pin the blame on the public in the knowledge that for the top 10 lists of most corrupt government officials, many of them have been known to launder pelf acquired during their morally tainted regimes. 

In the financial world they are known as Politically Exposed Person (PEP), which according to Wikipedia.org, “describes a person who has been entrusted with a prominent public function, or an individual who is closely related to such a person” 

The Wikipedia.org also notes of the relationship between corruption and money laundering… (bold mine)

By virtue of their position and the influence that they may hold, a PEP generally presents a higher risk for potential involvement in bribery and corruption. Most financial institutions view such clients as potential compliance risks and perform enhanced monitoring of accounts that fall within this category….

PEP-specific compliance legislation underlines the link between corrupt politicians, money laundering and the financing of terrorism. Since September 11, 2001, more than 100 countries have changed their laws related to financial services regulation, with the fight against political corruption playing a fundamental role. Despite attempts at regulation, certain political leaders like Muammar Gaddafi and Hosni Mubarak have made news for having frozen assets located in US banks that did not follow these processes for these individuals.

So by virtue of the connection of corruption and laundering then Mexico cash ban should also implicate politicians. But this isn’t likely the real score.

In the understanding the politicians typically use noble sounding justifications to camouflage the genuine design to impose social controls, cash bans have mostly been about governments wanting to take control of the public’s savings in order to finance their profligacy.

Except for the quirk this 2012 in terms of government budget as % of GDP—perhaps due to initial reporting, but as of September Mexico’s debt will equal to 42.9% of GDP—generally speaking, Mexico’s fiscal position (mostly supported by oil revenues) has been in marked deterioration. (chart from tradingeconomics.com) 

With oil production falling from declining reserves, and where oil revenues account for 40% of Mexico's national budget…

…we now get a better picture or understanding of the seeming desperation exhibited by the Mexican government which impels them to corral public’s savings through currency restrictions.

Of course ban on cash would do little to control supposed “money laundering” which in reality represents an offshoot to corrupt arbitrary laws.

In the US, the war on drugs, for instance, has prompted drug trades to migrate to other marketable commodities as the Tide liquid detergents as means of payment. Instead of dealing with failure of the war on drugs, governments typically resort to attacking symptoms. This has been no less than political showmanship or the pretense of doing something. 

Economic and financial restrictions or blockade against Iran by the US has prompted Iran to use gold as money. So essentially, the US government has taken steps to underwrite the decline of the US dollar standard by incentivizing emerging markets to trade using other mediums as gold. 

As I previously wrote, 

As governments stifle people’s social and commercial activities through tyrannical laws, expect the use of more cash, local currencies or commodities (such as Tide) as alternative medium of exchanges, as the informal or shadow economies grow. 

Most importantly, real assets will become more valuable and may become an integral part of money, as sustained policies of inflationism, as Voltaire once said, will bring fiat money back to its intrinsic value—zero. 

The Mexican government’s war on cash will do little to help what truly has been the problem of political greed.

Use Cash for Freedom

I had a gruesome first hand experience on how governments disdains the use of cash.

Sadly this has not been an isolated experience, but a deepening troublesome political trend around the world, particularly in developed economies.

Governments would like to confiscate more of the public’s resources to finance their lavish ways. So the compulsion to transact through their institutional accomplices, the politically endowed banking system.

Through stricter unilateral regulations or immoral laws, governments through the banking system place the public’s hard earned savings under intense scrutiny, and criminalize the actions of the innocent, whom have been uninformed by the rapid pace of changes in manifold regulations covering a wide swath of social activities through the banking system.

Private transactions which does not conform with the goals and the interests of the political authorities risks confiscation. Worst is the trauma of being labeled a criminal. Increasingly desperate governments have wantonly been in violation of the property rights of their citizenry.

A vote against government is to use cash transactions, that’s because cash, according to Charles Goyette at the LewRockwell.com, represents freedom

Mr. Goyette writes, (bold emphasis mine)

Governments hate that cash gives you anonymity. And they are often very anxious to track it and to control your use of it. They often attempt to criminalize the use of cash or at least criminalize having too much of it around.

Right now, 7% of the U.S. economy is cash-based. Across the Eurozone, it's a little bit higher, 9%, but in Sweden cash transactions are falling by the wayside. You can't use cash for buses there. A growing number of businesses are going entirely cashless. In fact, only 3% of all purchases in Sweden are transacted in cash. And some people think that 3% is too much.

Now, there are things you give up when you go cashless, and privacy is only one of them. Because you also give up a piece of every transaction to the facilitating financial institution, a state-approved financial institution that is going to take a cut one way or another of every purchase that it processes. And that cut will be paid by you.

In the United States, the government has implemented increasingly punitive and burdensome measures for those who use cash. Banks, for example, are required to file reports on the use of cash in certain circumstances, including suspicious persons reports for some cash activities. In fact, if you seem to be trying to transact in cash below the reporting threshold, that alone can trigger a suspicious persons report on you. Like a lot of the states' heavy-handed measures, this was all targeted at getting those drug dealers.

As earlier pointed out, governments has used all sorts of "noble" excuses like money laundering, tax evasion, the war on drugs and etc… to justify their confiscatory actions which in reality represents no more than financial repression.

And as governments tighten the noose on the public, people will intuitively look for ingenious alternatives to outflank such oppressive policies.

In the US, the liquid detergent Tide appears to have emerged even as an alternative to cash.

Writes Professor Joseph Salerno at the Mises Institute.

As has been widely reported recently, an unlikely crime wave has rapidly spread throughout the United States and has taken local law-enforcement officials by surprise. The theft of Tide liquid laundry detergent is pandemic throughout cities in the United States. One individual alone stole $25,000 worth of Tide detergent during a 15-month crime spree, and large retailers are taking special security measures to protect their inventories of Tide. For example, CVS is locking down Tide alongside commonly stolen items like flu medications. Liquid Tide retails for $10–$20 per bottle and sells on the black market for $5–$10. Individual bottles of Tide bear no serial numbers, making them impossible to track. So some enterprising thieves operate as arbitrageurs buying at the black-market price and reselling to the stores, presumably at the wholesale price. Even more puzzling is the fact that no other brand of detergent has been targeted.

What gives here? This is just another confirmation of Menger's insight that the market responds to the absence of sound money by monetizing highly salable commodities. It is clear that Tide has emerged as a subsidiary local currency for black-market, especially drug, transactions — but for legal transactions in low-income areas as well. Indeed police report that Tide is being exchanged for heroin and methamphetamine and that drug dealers possess inventories of the commodity that they are also willing to sell.

As governments stifle people’s social and commercial activities through tyrannical laws, expect the use of more cash, local currencies or commodities (such as Tide) as alternative medium of exchanges, as the informal or shadow economies grow.

Most importantly, real assets will become more valuable and may become an integral part of money, as sustained policies of inflationism, as Voltaire once said, will bring fiat money back to its intrinsic value—zero.

Money which emerges from the markets will be emblematic of freedom.

Italian Government Restricts the Use of Cash

My wretched airport experience last year has a link to what’s going on in Italy.

Basically global governments have used money laundering as an excuse or as a front to compel the public to migrate their transactions into the politically privileged banking system so that these transactions can be monitored and subsequently bankrolled to finance the governments. I think this represents part of the financial repression.

From Bloomberg (hat tip Bob Wenzel) [bold emphasis mine]

Prime Minister Mario Monti, in office just over a month, wants landlords, plumbers, electricians and small businesses to stop conducting large transactions in cash, which critics say helps them evade taxes. The government on Dec. 4 reduced the maximum allowed cash payment to 1,000 euros from 2,500 euros.

“If they force us to use credit cards, prices will go up,” said d’Andrea, noting that many retailers offer discounts to customers who pay in cash and don’t demand a receipt, in effect splitting with them the savings from evading the country’s 21 percent sales tax. She may curtail future purchases if she’s unable to use cash, d’Andrea said.

Italy loses more than 120 billion euros in unpaid taxes every year, according to the Equitalia tax collection agency. The country spends another 10 billion euros annually on security and labor for processing cash transactions, according to banking association ABI.

Debt Crisis

Monti is focusing on curtailing evasion as one way to reduce Italy’s 1.9 trillion-euro debt, which is bigger than Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal’s combined. Investor concern that Italy remains at risk of being overwhelmed by the region’s debt crisis pushed the country’s borrowing costs to euro-era records last month.

In Europe, Italy has a large shadow or informal economy (chart from the Economist) which implies that transactions are not being taxed and are usually done on cash basis and outside the banking system, thus the so-called “evasion”.

Yet in reality informal or shadow economies are symptomatic of the markets circumventing burdensome and stifling regulations, tax payments and social welfare contributions as previously discussed.

So essentially debt strapped governments like Italy has launched a war against their informal economy.

Such dynamic can be seen from the succeeding portion of the same article (bold emphasis mine)

The reform pits the government against some Italians who prefer to pay for everything from wedding receptions to home renovations with cash, allowing merchants to underreport or not declare the revenue, and gaining a discount in exchange. Many small companies pay salaries in cash, allowing employees to report less income, the Finance Ministry said last year.

“Businesses make us accomplices, because nobody wants to pay extra on a large transaction,” said Adele Costantini, a professor of medicine in the southern region of Abruzzo, who had to argue to get a receipt from a house painter. “I want them to pay the tax, not unload it on me.”

Italians are the euro region’s least-indebted consumers and among its biggest savers, according to data from the European Union’s statistics office, Eurostat. Their frugality may be at least partly linked to a distrust of paying with anything other than cash. Italian credit-card holders use their cards on average only 26 times per year, or five times less than in the U.K., according to the Bank of Italy.

‘Culture of Cash’

“The culture of cash is strongly ingrained in Italians, even those that don’t evade,” Deputy Finance Minister Vittorio Grilli said at a Dec. 5 press conference in Rome. The government initially wanted to set a 300-euro or 500-euro cash limit but decided against it, Grilli said, reasoning that citizens needed time to adapt to new rules.

These are manifestations of the welfare state-central banking-banking cartel facing continuing tremendous pressures to preserve the current unsustainable system.

Yet impositions like the above which goes against culture will naturally meet stiff resistance. And unintended consequences will likely be the ensuing order—perhaps the informal economy might resort to trading based on foreign cash currencies or local community currencies could emerge (like in some parts of the US) or even trading could be done in metallic coins or that such laws will simply be ignored or not complied with or that corruption will only swell. There are many variations that could arise in response to such repressive law.

Changing Dynamics In Central Bank Management, Quasi Boom Policies

``With the economic improvement and steepening yield curve that our US team expects, commercial banks may find it a good risk/return decision to move these funds into the real economy rather than simply earn an interest rate in the neighborhood of the risk-free IOR. The risk therefore is that these methods of draining reserves simply postpone the macro problem of burgeoning excess reserves.”-Manoj Pradhan ER, RR, IOR and RRR

It’s a simple fact that the world constantly changes.

Even the management of central banks given today’s monetary conditions has been exhibiting such changes. Traditional tools don’t seem to have the same measured ‘efficacy’ due to the drastic stimulus-response feedback loop mechanism applied by authorities in response to the rapidly changing environment. I would posit that the past successes had not been out of bureaucratic skills but out of happenstance; the emergence of globalization had engendered the era of the “great moderation”.

For instance, in an effort to curb the incidences of bank failures during the latest crisis, central banks have rapidly deployed the unorthodox (nuclear option) means of providing emergency loans against ‘dubious’ forms of collateral and importantly the purchasing of specific types of bubble ‘tainted’ assets directly from the market.

The proceeds from the central bank loans or sales have led to the intensive ballooning of excess reserves (ER) of banks, which until today, has been warehoused in the central bank. Considering the extent of balance sheet impairments of the US banking system, the temporary measures have not yet adequately resolved the chronic woes, nor has these excess reserves been converted into end user or consumer loans. Not yet anyway.

Hence, the huge buildup of excess reserves has apparently altered the scalability of the tools required to deal with balance sheet management of the central bank.

Morgan Stanley’s Manoj Pradhan describes the transition, ``The traditional way of draining reserves was to sell T-Bills to commercial banks. This would mean that commercial banks would replace cash on the asset side of their balance sheet with the T-Bill of an equivalent quantity. However, ER held by the Fed now stand at US$1.1 trillion and the size makes it difficult for reserves to be drained in the traditional way.” (emphasis mine)

In other words, the change in the discount rates or possibly even the Fed Fund rate may seem more symbolic than functional. And perhaps this may be one reason why the markets appear to have discounted the recent actions by the Federal Reserve.

The Federal Reserve has thus been tinkering with experimental tools such as reverse repo, term deposit facilities and interest rates on reserves.

So while the Fed desires to see ample liquidity in the system, withdrawing the huge stack of bank reserves underlines the apparently emerging distinct objectives- the task of liquidity and interest rate management.

Reviving The Credit Process By Fueling Bubbles

On our part, we understand the fact the Fed is dabbling with generally untested tools relative to the new circumstances it is faced with brings about greater risks than what the mainstream expects.

For one, it is becoming clearer that credit demand hasn’t been the underlying problem as alleged by many, instead it looks more likely to be a ‘supply’ problem, where tight lending from banks have stifled the credit process.

As proof, many in the US, have turned to local ‘scrip’ currencies in the face of money shortages to conduct business or trade [see Emerging Local Currencies In The US Disproves The 'Liquidity Trap']. There are as many as 100 local currencies operating in the US today.

Next, banks that have benefited from government’s bailout have reportedly been averse at lending to small business.

According to CNN Small Business,

``Small business loans continue to dry up at the nation's biggest banks. Eleven top TARP recipients -- including Wells Fargo, by far the nation's largest lender to small companies -- cut their collective small business loan balance by more than $2.3 billion in December, according to a Treasury report released late Tuesday.

``The drop marked the eighth consecutive month of declines for the 11 banks. In that time, their total loan balance has fallen 7%, to $169.4 billion. Seven of the reporting banks have cut their small business loan balance every single month.

``"Credit is still tight for many small businesses," the Treasury acknowledged in a Feb. 10 report.

Another, government interventions in the housing market through a recent tax credit subsidy program compounded by low interest rates could spark the process of inflating yet another property bubble.

But this time bubble signs appear to have surfaced in homebuilder lots, according to Doug French of the Mises Institute, (bold highlights mine)

``Last November, President Obama signed the Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009, which, as many people know, extended unemployment benefits and the first-time-homebuyer tax-credit program. But quietly included in this legislative lasagna was a provision allowing big businesses to offset the losses of 2008 and 2009 against profits made as far back as 2004. This provision will generate corporate tax refunds of $33 billion, the New York Times reports. Previously, only small companies could offset losses against past years' profits.

``Big home builders are the prime beneficiaries. After racking up monster profits during the housing boom, the industry has booked huge losses in the bust, accentuated by write-downs of their land positions totaling $28.5 billion for the 14 largest publically traded homebuilders. Now these large homebuilders are recapturing some of what Uncle Sam took away during the boom years. According to the Times, Pulte Homes has a refund of $450 million coming, Hovnanian Enterprises will get back $250–275 million, while Standard Pacific and Beazer Homes will recoup $80 million and $50 million of their profits respectively.

``And while returning taxes to businesses is a wonderful thing, home builders are reading the distorted economic tea leaves. These seem to say that low interest rates and tax credits will eventually bring buyers back to their subdivisions, while many of the big builders' smaller competitors were washed away for good by the housing tsunami — so ramp up the higher-stage and durable-production process by investing capital in building lots…

While it is true that there are still enormous housing inventories to reckon with as to successfully reignite a bubble, improving trends in the sales of homebuilder lots could signify as important clues to a brewing bubble.

Adds Mr. French, ``The lot-buying homebuilders may be irrational, but they aren't yet exuberant. The National Association of Home Builders' housing-market index rose just 2 points to 17 in February — far below the bullish readings of 50 that haven't been seen since April 2006. But the 528 residential developers surveyed say that the tax credits being offered along with low mortgage rates are spurring some demand.” (bold highlights mine)

This seem to reconcile with our view that if we are correct, the record steepness in the yield curve will likely generate belated credit traction 2-3 after a recession [see What’s The Yield Curve Saying About Asia And The Bubble Cycle?]. We may probably see some signs of revitalization in the credit process of the US by the end of the year.

And what else could stoke the credit process than a new bubble!

Remember considering that homebuilder losses have been allowed to be offset via tax refunds, essentially, the carryover losses has been borne by the US government.

So there lies the issue of the moral hazard problem. What should stop these economic agents from resuming reckless and imprudent risks, when they know that Big Brother would backstop their activities?

Moreover, these homebuilders are only responding to the incentives set by the government: Government gives them money from which they employ based on inherent familiarity, and government provides the conditions-low interest rates and the moral hazard issue/risk free environment- for them to take a stab at new risks. Besides, government subsidies tend to immunize economic agents from the sentience of profits and losses.

So the US government’s approach to gradually disengage itself from the housing market appears to be to stir up a new bubble.

The US government is simply fundamentally following the dogma of sustaining the perpetuity of a quasi boom.

From John Maynard Keynes, ``The right remedy for the trade cycle is not to be found in abolishing booms and thus keeping us permanently in a semi-slump; but in abolishing slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi-boom.” A quasi boom kept as permanent policy would lead to a prolonged depression and a reduction of the nation’s living standard.

Also this should put into rigorous tests the effectiveness of the new set of tools, strategies or the new doctrines for the Federal Reserve to deal with its humongous excess reserves.

Where to bet our money? Against the success of the Federal Reserve, of course.

Emerging Local Currencies In The US Disproves The 'Liquidity Trap'

Deflation exponents tell us that deleveraging from overindebtedness will restrict demand for credit and cause a fall in consumption which leads to falling prices.

Further they allege that monetary policies will be ineffective to arrest this phenomenon which leads to a Keynesian "liquidity trap".

We say this is garbage.

Why? Empirical proof from the emergence of local currencies, which reportedly numbers nearly 100, is a manifestation that there hasn't been a fall in demand for goods or services or consumption.

This from Fox News, (all bold highlights mine)

``Today, there are close to 100 types of local currencies operating in the United States.

``While some currencies are true to their name and are backed by federal dollars, others are simply a record of hours worked by contributing “time bank” members. “Whenever you have a shortage of money, people look to invent their own medium of exchange,” said David Boyle, fellow of the New Economics Foundation and Author of "Money Matters."

``The earliest local payment system on record began in the 1930’s, which isn't surprising; historically, local currencies have been most popular during times of economic crisis, and the U.S. then was in the midst of the Great Depression."

``Today, the Community Exchange hours system has 450 members, though similar systems work with just 50 or more members. When one member does something for another, they get credit for the amount of time spent helping. Each member’s time is worth the same, whether they’re giving tax advice or cooking dinner.

``Because there is no set standard for what a local currency should be, many times the grassroots effort to start a program doesn’t gain the momentum it needs. The average success rate for local currency is around 20%, according to a study done by Professor Ed Collom at the University of Southern Maine, which looked at 82 such currencies.

So local currencies operate like an improved version of the barter system but is limited to the locality.

More from MSNBC, (all bold highlights mine)

``In most cases, these communities are simply looking to boost local commerce. The currency has to be spent in town, obviously, because it's worthless anywhere else. But a growing distrust of the U.S. dollar is also at work.

``When the Treasury prints billions to bail out banks and automakers, people look for alternatives. These folks may look nutty now, goes the quip, but wait till the dollar goes the way of the Argentine peso. Then you'll be exchanging a wheelbarrow of cash for a bay buck, local currency boosters say...

``At central Vermont's Onion River Exchange, services recently offered included basics such as haircuts but mostly oddities like puppet shows, trips to the dump and left-handed knitting. Among the service requests were a call for rawhide goat skins and a plea from someone named Pam, who "flushed a hair-catch thingy down the toilet and needs help getting it out."

Here's a list of community local currencies in the US.

So "shortage of money", "a growing distrust of the U.S. dollar" and "boost local commerce" hardly are signs of falling consumption, instead they reflect on the malaise plaguing the banking system.

GMU's Charles Rowley argues on the absurdity of the liquidity trap (hat tip: Cafe Hayek) [bold emphasis mine, italics his]

``The concept of the liquidity trap, as outlined by Keynes, and developed by his early disciples, is one aspect of the theory of liquidity preference. Liquidity preference is a theory of the demand for money. Individuals have a certain transactions and a certain precautionary preference for holding money over bonds, because of money’s property of liquidity. They have a speculative preference for holding money over bonds when their expectations are that interest rates are likely to rise, bringing down upon the holders of bonds significant reductions in the value of their bond portfolios.

``If this speculative fear is sufficiently high, the demand for money becomes infinite. In such circumstances, the monetary authority cannot lower interest rates on bonds by selling money in exchange for bonds on the open market. If this liquidity trap occurs under conditions of recession, the monetary authorities cannot stimulate the demand for investment by lowering bond rates of interest. In such circumstances, increasing government expenditures appears to be an attractive mechanism for returning the economy to full employment equilibrium. As Keynes emphasized, he knew of no such situation ever having occurred in the real world."

So has there been an extraordinary demand for money?

Again from Mr. Rowley,

``There is no evidence whatsoever that the demand for investment at current interest rates (incidentally Treasury notes with more than three years to maturity are nearer to 4 per cent than to zero in nominal terms, Mr. Krugman) is inadequate to move the economy to full employment equilibrium.

``Evidence suggests that small firms are desperate for loans from the banks at current interest rates, but cannot obtain them because the big banks will not lend. The big banks will not lend, not because they are are short of high-powered money (Bad Ben Bernanke has drenched the economy in high-powered money), but because their balance sheets are rock-bottom rotten and they are trying to use Bernanke money to bring their financial ratios back from insanely low levels."

Well, the reported shortages of money that has spurred the emergence of local community currencies seem to validate or corroborate this perspective. Moreover, inflationism could be another factor why people have indeed been looking for alternatives.

Local Currencies Are Back In Fashion In The US

In the US, local currencies have been making a comeback- after its last appearance during the Great Depression.

They come in many names: In North Carolina Plenty, it is the Plenty. In Detroit, the Cheer. In Arizona, it is the Mesa Bucks and in Massachusetts, the Berkshare.

Read the rest from the LA Times here

From Paper Money to Food Backed Money?

Since last year's market crash we noted of the reemergence of barter as way of conducting trade among nations. Essentially the difficulties or gridlock in the US banking sector has prompted many nations to administer direct bilateral exchange.

Now in some areas of the US, we read of accounts where local trade have been conducted with "local" currency units. But in contrast to merely paper money, the local currency called "Mendo Credits" reportedly is backed by "Food".
This interesting article from Jason Bradford at the Oil Drum

``Mendo Credits is a new food-backed local currency project partly funded by a grant from the California Endowment...

``Mendo Credits are backed by a tangible asset. In other words, Mendo Credits are a “reserve currency” as opposed to a “fiat currency” like Federal Reserve dollars. Many people are familiar with money backed by gold, which was once the case with U.S. dollars, but Mendo Credits are backed by reserves of stored food. Our reserve currency has a number of desirable properties at this time in history.

``The asset value of Mendo Credits remains stable over a significant time period because we lock in an exchange rate for specific quantities of food for one year from the date of issue. Whereas gold and silver are inedible, Mendo Credits can be redeemed for the sustenance of life. When you hold a Mendo Credit note, you know it represents the quantity of food printed on its face and, if you want or need to, you can actually get that food..

``Mendo Credits are just beginning to circulate in the town of Willits, CA and we hope this spreads around our region. Four central downtown businesses are serving as sales outlets for the new currency: The Bank of Willits, Mendonesia Café, The Book Juggler, and Leaves of Grass Bookstore. NCO also sells them at the Willits Farmers’ Market."

Read the rest here