Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: More NATO-Russia Encounters, Military Balance in Asia, Blowback on Canada’s Interventions

Updates on the geopolitical risk theater:

1  Financial Times Nato fighter jets intercept Russian military aircraft October 29

An excerpt 

More than two dozen Russian military aircraft, including six nuclear bombers, have conducted “significant military manoeuvres” on the edges of Nato and European airspace in the past 24 hours, causing jets to be scrambled from eight countries as well as Nato’s own Baltic air policing force.

The incidents – three of which occurred on Wednesday and one on Tuesday – followed last week’s violation of Nato airspace by a Russian spy plane, the first since the end of the cold war. Taken together they constitute the most serious air provocation mounted by the Kremlin against the alliance this year, if not in more than a decade, according to Nato officials…

“These sizeable Russian flights represent an unusual level of air activity over European airspace,” Nato said in a detailed statement issued from its headquarters in Belgium…

The most significant intercept on Wednesday occurred in the North Sea. A force of eight Russian aircraft, including four Tu-95 long-range strategic nuclear bombers and four refuelling aircraft, were detected flying in formation at about 3am central European time flying from mainland Russia over the Norwegian Sea.

Six aircraft turned back, but two bombers continued southwards, close to the Norwegian coast and followed by F16s sent to intercept them by the Royal Norwegian air force. When the Russian aircraft then turned over the North Sea, RAF Typhoons were scrambled to intercept as they approached UK airspace. Portuguese fighters were later deployed as they came near the Iberian peninsula.

The aircraft did not file flight plans, had turned off their transponders and did not respond to any radio calls from civilian or military controllers.

2 TheAviationist.com German Typhoons have intercepted 7 Russian Air Force combat planes over the Baltic Sea today October 28

3 Vietnamese government blows hot and cold on China

a. Wall Street Journal Frontiers, Vietnam and China Agree to Better Manage Sea Disputes October 28

b. Economic Times, India to supply Vietnam with naval vessels amid China disputes October 28

4 Telegraph Mystery submarine sighting gives clue to Russia's Arctic ambitions October 28

5 RT.com France to hand over first Mistral helicopter carrier on Nov 14 – Russia October 29

6 Telegraph Seven reasons why Russia is spying on its neighbours October 29

7 RT.com Russian nuclear sub test-fires Bulava strategic missile October 30

8 RT.com Contract soldiers outnumber conscripts in Russian military – Defense Minister October 29

9 Al-Arabiya News ISIS fighters seen with advanced antiaircraft missiles October 28

Images from a video released by ISIS captured a fighter firing Chinese-made surface-to-air missile FN6 – and blowing an Iraqi army MI-35M during a battle in the oil-rich town of Baiji, north of Baghdad, according to the New York Times. Two crew members were reportedly killed as a result.

10 Al-Arabiya News ISIS militants execute more than 40 tribesmen in Iraq’s Anbar October 29

11 Spiegel Bound for Syria: German Kurds Join Fight against Islamic State October 29

12 Thomson Reuter’s Knowledge Effect: Military Balance in Asia Oct 27

13 ForeignAffairs.com Don't Mistake Russia for Iran Why the Same Sanctions Strategy Won't Work October 20

Given that Russia has reached out to many Chinese companies to help mitigate the pain caused by U.S. and EU sanctions, the United States would likely be risking dramatically more diplomatic tension with the Chinese by imposing such sanctions again. And that could complicate other issues in the U.S.–China relationship.

There’s another reason why potential new Russia sanctions that set East Asian banks and companies in U.S. sights might not be as effective as policymakers hope. Unlike Iran, Russia has a large, globally-integrated economy. It is more than five times the size of the Iranian economy and is an attractive investment opportunity. For many companies -- big banks in particular -- their business with Iran was not worth losing access to U.S. financial markets. However some firms, particularly in China, may conclude that their strategic interests and financial future lie with Russia. If they make this decision, there is very little the United States can do to get them to cooperate again

14 Laurence Vance The Newest Problem in the Military Lew Rockwell Blog October 28

Whether to call your commanding officer “sir” or “ma’am.” According to the William Institute, a think tank at UCLA that addresses lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender issues: “About 15,500 transgender people are serving in the military.” Service members are not permitted to take hormones to change their gender, but some have done so anyway. Things are getting pretty comical right now, especially regarding the use of restrooms, as this article shows. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has indicated that he is open to studying the transgender ban in the military. I predict that the military will lift the ban and be flooded with people who want to change their genders—at taxpayer expense of course.

Is this what it will take for Christians to end their love affair with the military? Too bad that the military bombing and killing people all over the world is not enough.

15 Ron Paul Once-Peaceful Canada Turns Militaristic; Blowback Follows, October 26

How the world has changed. Canada’s wise caution about military adventurism even at the height of the Cold War has given way to a Canada of the 21st century literally joined at Washington’s hip and eager to participate in any bombing mission initiated by the D.C. interventionists.

Considering Canada’s peaceful past, the interventionist Canada that has emerged at the end of the Cold War is a genuine disappointment. Who would doubt that today’s Canada would, should a draft be re-instated in the US, send each and every American resister back home to face prison and worse?

…

That is the danger of intervention in other people’s wars thousands of miles away. Those at the other end of foreign bombs – and their surviving family members or anyone who sympathizes with them – have great incentive to seek revenge. This feeling should not be that difficult to understand.

Seeking to understand the motivation of a criminal does not mean that the crime is justified, however. We can still condemn and be appalled by the attacks while realizing that we need to understand the causation and motivation. This is common sense in other criminal matters, but it seems to not apply to attacks such as we saw in Canada last week. Few dare to point out the obvious: Canada’s aggressive foreign policy is creating enemies abroad that are making the country more vulnerable to attack rather than safer.

My comments

Increasing tensions in the global military arena not only heightens risks of a world war, they also increase domestic societal frictions via the degradation of the community’s moral fiber. 

In the economic context, excessive military build up leads to the incremental impoverishment of the population as more resources are being diverted to non-productive and importantly towards socially destructive activities. Divisive geopolitics leads to protectionism which aggravates tensions.

In addition, military spending serves as an invisible transfer of wealth to the politically connected defense suppliers and contractors and affiliates and the bureaucracy.

In the political context, militarization leads to less civil liberties. Worst, deepening militarization has the tendency for society to evolve towards a police state.

Geopolitical Risk Theater Watch: Article Links October 28

From now on, I will be occasionally posting links on articles covering geopolitical risk theater. This should give us an idea of the evolving risks developments. I'll start with 12 articles

1 Jane.com NATO completes largest naval exercise in five years October 26

2 Aseanbriefing.com ASEAN Update: Understanding the Geopolitics of the South China Sea Dispute – October 27

A quote:

During the 2012 ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh, four member nations – Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Brunei – all declared there were conflicting territorial claims with China in the South China Sea. This did not include ongoing disputes with Taiwan, whose claims are generally excluded from ASEAN dialogue. Yet, the ASEAN states were unable to agree on an appropriate response. Internal squabbling reached new heights when, for the first time in the group’s 45-year history, they were not even able to agree on a language for the summit’s concluding communiqué.

Aside from creating antagonism internally, ASEAN’s response – or lack thereof – clearly signaled to China the alliance’s key shortcoming: the incompatibility of individual interests with regional loyalty. Indeed, in addition to diluting US influence, China’s insistence on bilateral resolution of the South China Sea disputes deliberately takes advantage of this vulnerability.

3 FreeBeacon.com China's Alarming Military Buildup Is Shifting The Balance Of Power In Asia October 13

An excerpt

On China’s strategic nuclear buildup, the report identifies China’s large-scale buildup of both conventional and nuclear-armed missiles as a serious threat.

China’s has as many as 1,895 ballistic and cruise missiles, including up to 1,200 short-range missiles, up to 100 medium-range missiles, up to 20 intermediate-range missiles, up to 75 intercontinental missiles, and up to 500 ground-launched land attack cruise missiles.

The Pentagon after 2010 halted releasing annual assessments of Chinese missile forces that one expert said undercuts the Obama administration’s policy of seeking a more open Chinese military by “indirectly assisting Chinese secrecy.”

For short-range missiles, China currently is developing five new systems with ranges between 94 and 174 miles. The new missiles will have greater accuracy and lethality.

For targeting US forces in Japan and South Korea, China has deployed DF-21C theater-range missiles with ranges of about 1,240 miles and appears to have developed a second system, the DF-16.

Its new intermediate-range missile, to be deployed in the next five years, will be able to hit US forces on Guam, Northern Australia, Alaska, and US forces in the Middle East and Indian Ocean.

A variant of the DF-21D is a unique anti-ship ballistic missile that has been deployed in two brigades in southeastern and northeast China.

China’s nuclear strike forces remain couched in secrecy, the report said. “China’s official statements about its nuclear forces and nuclear capabilities are rare and vague in order to maintain ‘strategic ambiguity,’” the report says.

4 Moscow Times Russia Inches Toward Permanent Naval Presence in Mediterranean October 16

5 Inquisitr.com Russian Spy Plane Violates NATO Airspace, Estonia Alarmed October 23

Fighters scrambled to intercept a Russian spy plane in Estonia’s airspace and escort it back to Russia in what’s being considered the most serious violation of NATO airspace since the Cold War…

For the year 2014, the deployment of NATO fighters for interceptions like this one are up by around 300 percent from 2013. It’s not clear if there will be any lasting consequence for the Russian spy plane, except one: Baltic states will continue to be worried.

6 RT.com Poland to move thousands of troops to border with Ukraine October 27

7 Businessinsider.com Sweden's Epic Hunt For A 'Russian' Sub Shows Europe Is Terrified Of Putin October 24

8 Inquisitr.com Russian Jets Invading Japan Airspace In Record Numbers Over Past Year, Japan Wants To Know Why October 19

Russian jets flying perilously close to Japan airspace forced Japanese fighters to take to the skies 533 times over the past six months — a number up from 308 in the same time period a year earlier. Now Japan is trying to figure out why the Russian military jets have made Japan a target

9 BBC.co.uk Why is the US Navy practising for war with China? October 15

10 Wall Street Journal As China Deploys Nuclear Submarines, U.S. P-8 Poseidon Jets Snoop on Them October 24

The P-8s’ operations can bring them into confrontation with Chinese forces. In August, the Pentagon said a Chinese jet fighter had flown dangerously close to a U.S. P-8 during an interception near Hainan island, site of one of China’s submarine bases. China’s defense ministry publicly said its pilot flew safely and demanded that the U.S. cease surveillance operations near its base.

11 Wall Street Journal  China’s Submarines Add Nuclear-Strike Capability, Altering Strategic Balance October 24

The message was clear: China had fulfilled its four-decade quest to join the elite club of countries with nuclear subs that can ply the high seas. The defense ministry summoned attachés again to disclose another Chinese deployment to the Indian Ocean in September—this time a diesel-powered sub, which stopped off in Sri Lanka…

China’s nuclear attack subs, in particular, are integral to what Washington sees as an emerging strategy to prevent the U.S. from intervening in a conflict over Taiwan, or with Japan and the Philippines—both U.S. allies locked in territorial disputes with Beijing…

China's nuclear-sub deployments, some naval experts say, may become the opening gambits of an undersea contest in Asia that echoes the cat-and-mouse game between U.S. and Soviet subs during the Cold War—a history popularized by Tom Clancy's 1984 novel "The Hunt for Red October."

Chinese officials say their subs don’t threaten other countries and are part of a program to protect China’s territory and expanding global interests. Chinese defense officials told foreign attachés that the subs entering the Indian Ocean would assist antipiracy patrols off Somalia, say people briefed on the meetings.

12 Paul Craig Roberts: Vladimir Putin Is The Leader Of the Moral World lewrockwell.com October 27, 2014

Excerpts from Mr. Putin's speech:

On Western Foreign policies:

A unilateral diktat and imposing one’s own models produces the opposite result. Instead of settling conflicts it leads to their escalation, instead of sovereign and stable states we see the growing spread of chaos, and instead of democracy there is support for a very dubious public ranging from open neo-fascists to Islamic radicals…

On brinkmanship politics:

Joint economic projects and mutual investment objectively bring countries closer together and help to smooth out current problems in relations between states. But today, the global business community faces unprecedented pressure from Western governments. What business, economic expediency and pragmatism can we speak of when we hear slogans such as “the homeland is in danger”, “the free world is under threat”, and “democracy is in jeopardy”? And so everyone needs to mobilise. That is what a real mobilisation policy looks like.

Sanctions are already undermining the foundations of world trade, the WTO rules and the principle of inviolability of private property. They are dealing a blow to liberal model of globalisation based on markets, freedom and competition, which, let me note, is a model that has primarily benefited precisely the Western countries. And now they risk losing trust as the leaders of globalisation. We have to ask ourselves, why was this necessary? After all, the United States’ prosperity rests in large part on the trust of investors and foreign holders of dollars and US securities. This trust is clearly being undermined and signs of disappointment in the fruits of globalisation are visible now in many countries.   The well-known Cyprus precedent and the politically motivated sanctions have only strengthened the trend towards seeking to bolster economic and financial sovereignty and countries’ or their regional groups’ desire to find ways of protecting themselves from the risks of outside pressure. We already see that more and more countries are looking for ways to become less dependent on the dollar and are setting up alternative financial and payments systems and reserve currencies. I think that our American friends are quite simply cutting the branch they are sitting on. You cannot mix politics and the economy, but this is what is happening now. I have always thought and still think today that politically motivated sanctions were a mistake that will harm everyone, but I am sure that we will come back to this subject later.

We know how these decisions were taken and who was applying the pressure. But let me stress that Russia is not going to get all worked up, get offended or come begging at anyone’s door. Russia is a self-sufficient country. We will work within the foreign economic environment that has taken shape, develop domestic production and technology and act more decisively to carry out transformation. Pressure from outside, as has been the case on past occasions, will only consolidate our society, keep us alert and make us concentrate on our main development goals.

Of course the sanctions are a hindrance. They are trying to hurt us through these sanctions, block our development and push us into political, economic and cultural isolation, force us into backwardness in other words. But let me say yet again that the world is a very different place today. We have no intention of shutting ourselves off from anyone and choosing some kind of closed development road, trying to live in autarky. We are always open to dialogue, including on normalising our economic and political relations. We are counting here on the pragmatic approach and position of business communities in the leading countries…

On the growing risks of nuclear war:

From here emanates the next real threat of destroying the current system of arms control agreements. And this dangerous process was launched by the United States of America when it unilaterally withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, and then set about and continues today to actively pursue the creation of its global missile defence system.

Colleagues, friends, I want to point out that we did not start this. Once again, we are sliding into the times when, instead of the balance of interests and mutual guarantees, it is fear and the balance of mutual destruction that prevent nations from engaging in direct conflict. In absence of legal and political instruments, arms are once again becoming the focal point of the global agenda; they are used wherever and however, without any UN Security Council sanctions. And if the Security Council refuses to produce such decisions, then it is immediately declared to be an outdated and ineffective instrument.

Many states do not see any other ways of ensuring their sovereignty but to obtain their own bombs. This is extremely dangerous. We insist on continuing talks; we are not only in favour of talks, but insist on continuing talks to reduce nuclear arsenals. The less nuclear weapons we have in the world, the better. And we are ready for the most serious, concrete discussions on nuclear disarmament – but only serious discussions without any double standards.

What do I mean? Today, many types of high-precision weaponry are already close to mass-destruction weapons in terms of their capabilities, and in the event of full renunciation of nuclear weapons or radical reduction of nuclear potential, nations that are leaders in creating and producing high-precision systems will have a clear military advantage. Strategic parity will be disrupted, and this is likely to bring destabilization. The use of a so-called first global pre-emptive strike may become tempting. In short, the risks do not decrease, but intensify.

Have a nice day.

China's Strategic Resource Accumulation Continues

China's insatiable appetite for strategic resource accumulations runs unabated.

The latest buyout activities as reported by the Wall Street Journal (all bold emphasis mine)

``China National Petroleum Corp. and Cnooc Ltd. have proposed paying at least $17 billion for all of Repsol YPF SA's stake in YPF, its Argentine unit, two people close to the talks said.

``The potential deal, which could be the biggest overseas investment by China, highlights the country's growing thirst for energy resources globally and its willingness to offer big money for access. It also underlines the ambition of CNPC to build its presence in South America and elsewhere.

``A deal would be another example of how Chinese companies are now working together to buy foreign energy assets after years of working alone.

``But the potential acquisition faces significant hurdles. A deal could be politically sensitive in Argentina, where YPF is the country's leader in both upstream operations -- the exploration for and production of oil -- and downstream operations involving oil refining and marketing...

``China's resource majors have snapped up foreign oil and other assets recently, as the country seeks to lock in energy supplies.

``China Petrochemical Corp., the Chinese state-owned oil company known as Sinopec, in June acquired Switzerland-based oil explorer Addax Petroleum Corp. for $7.2 billion. In April, CNPC purchased Kazakh oil producer MangistauMunaiGas jointly with Kazakhstan's state-owned KazMunaiGas for $3.3 billion.

``China's state energy companies are also showing more teamwork in chasing foreign deals than previously. This year Sinopec and Cnooc have together struck deals for oil and natural-gas assets in Angola and the Caribbean. In July they agreed to buy jointly a 20% stake held by U.S. oil producer Marathon Oil Corp. in an oil block off Angola for $1.3 billion.

``Chinese oil companies have also signed oil-for-loans agreements with Russia and Brazil.

``But not all of China's efforts have been successful. In June, a $19.5 billion bid by Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, to raise its stake in Anglo-Australian mining-giant Rio Tinto collapsed amid shareholder and political concerns. An earlier, successful deal by Chinalco, in which it paid $14 billion for an initial 9% stake in Rio in February 2008, is China's largest foreign investment in the resources sector.

Read the rest here

My take.

China's aggressive resource accumulation has the following implications:

1. Economic-it has been amassing resources for its industrialization and rapidly progressing middle class.

2. Political-it has been using their immense foreign reserves as leverage to expand its geopolitical influence overseas, which could have some possible bearing on its desire to become a military and economic powerhouse.

This could be manifested by its thrust to elevate the yuan as an eligible international reserve currency and as possible candidate to the replacement of the embattled US dollar.

3. Security-it has been insuring itself from US government's policy to debase the US dollar.

Moreover, by expanding access to resources coupled with a build up in military and commercial logistics and expanding her sphere of global political influence, all these could also be interpreted as an insurance policy against future military conflict.

The apparent transition of the geopolitical order from unipolar to a multipolar framework cannot be guaranteed as orderly and peaceful.