I’m a Forbes columnist and economic analyst who is a fan of your newsletter/blog.I thought you may be interested in a report that I wrote about the Philippines’ economic bubble…I linked to your piece about the Philippines’ mall bubble in my report.
I am reluctant to write about the Philippines’ economic bubble after the devastation that the country has endured due to the recent typhoon. My heart goes out to all of the victims and their families. Please visit this page to learn how you can donate and help the victims of typhoon Haiyan. I have been writing a series of reports about bubbles in Southeast Asia, and the Philippines is one of the economies that I have been warning about even before the typhoon. My goal is to warn about economic bubbles to prevent humanitarian crises that result when bubbles pop.The archipelago nation of the Philippines is part of the overall emerging markets bubble that has been inflating since 2009 after China launched a $586 billion economic stimulus plan to counter the negative effects of the global financial crisis on their economy. China’s stimulus plan called for an aggressive credit-driven infrastructure and residential real estate-based economic growth strategy that resulted in the building of scores of cities and other projects – many of which are still empty or unused – across the entire country. The stimulus plan succeeded in temporarily boosting economic growth, and drove a global raw materials boom (and bubble) that benefited commodities exporters such as Australia and emerging market nations. Very soon, investors the world over were clamoring into emerging market investments to diversify away from investments in troubled Western economies.Record-low interest rates in the West and Japan, along with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing or QE programs led to an epic $4 trillion surge of speculative “hot money” into emerging market investments from 2009 to 2013. A global carry trade developed in which traders borrowed large amounts of capital at cheap interest rates from the U.S. and Japan, and reinvesting the proceeds into high-yielding assets in emerging markets for the purpose of earning the “spread” or favorable interest rate differential. The explosion of demand for emerging market investments helped to inflate bubbles in those countries’ assets, particularly in bonds, which resulted in incredibly low borrowing costs for EM governments and corporations. Ultra-low interest rates have enabled government-driven infrastructure booms, as well as dangerous credit and property bubbles across the emerging world.
One of the sharpest macroeconomic analysts I know is Benson Te, who writes at prudentinvestornewsletters.blogspot.com. This Maundy Thursday morning, he wrote that the rating upgrade “only reveals the deepening of the manic phase of Philippine asset bubbles.” He argues that the recent stock-market rise should have been factored into the prices. Instead, the market explodes on the news and ignored the common “buy the rumor, sell the news” idea.
Some of my articles have recently been cross-posted at the Finance section of Before It’s News, a people powered syndication platform.
Although Before It’s News (via Sean Melehan) wrote me on this about a year ago, only recently have I noticed that many of articles got published and linked on their site.
You can visit the finance section of Before It’s News here.
Anyway thanks to Before It’s News (and to Sean Melehan)
I was surprised to see this…
![clip_image002[4]](http://lh5.ggpht.com/-kVyo-elLs2Q/Toa8PfldyfI/AAAAAAAAHcs/Iu35hvxEioI/clip_image002%25255B4%25255D_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800 "clip_image002[4]")
My article featured in the Onespot section of the Wall Street Journal; click on the image to go to the link or this link.
Another shameless self-promotion for the Prudent Investor Newsletters
Businessmirror’s prolific financial columnist John Mangun tweets last August 10th,
I hardly open my twitter, but had to discover this from another reader. Thus my late reaction.
Anyway, my profuse thanks, John.
Follow John Mangun's twitter address here
On my linkedin profile page, long time reader, Wharton grad, highly successful investment banker and corporate finance advisor and currently Managing Director, Corporate Finance & Consulting at the Center for Global Best Practices, Mr. Tony Herbosa posted this recommendation...
For anyone serious about investing in the Philippines, Benson's Prudent Investor Newsletters are a must read on a continual basis. I must say that the PI newsletters have helped me anticipate major turning points in the market.
My profuse thanks, Tony.
Incidentally, I found that one of my articles had been referenced in an article by a Mises.org contributor and author published at the top libertarian website (based on Alexas), Lew Rockwell.com.
Nothing to crow about, but such surprising discovery had been a delight for me, since I frequent the site.
Stock Market Pilipinas has willfully opened a (discussion) thread on their forum for my articles on the domestic and global stock markets.
So aside from my insights, anyone interested in investing in the Philippine Stock Exchange may find this forum as a rich and valuable source of info and a good venue to exchange ideas.
Proceed to Stock Market Pilipinas here (registration required)
Thanks Ollie.
Here is a little self-promotion.
A UK based financial website Money.com.uk wrote me to say that my article had been referenced for their 2010 year end review.
Click on the site here or on the truncated picture from their website below.
Press the May 2nd heading “Greece and Package Settled Upon”.
And press “read more” at the right column which redirects the link to my site.
Ms. Sophie Lamble of Money.co.uk writes,
Of all the articles covering that particular event, we found yours to be the most concise and well-written – for this, I’d like to express my appreciation and sincere hope that the great work continues on Prudent Investor Newsletters. I’m sure our readers will agree and find the extra information useful.
Thanks Sophie and the Money.co.uk.
