Martin Spring: Best Ways to Profit in Shares

Martin Spring, who runs an independent financial market outlook, is one of my favorite analysts. This week, Mr. Spring gives us some tips on how to outperform the market, quoting Mr. Spring (emphasis mine):

``If the history of the past century is precedent for the future, the best investment strategies are these:

• Invest in shares with high dividend yields. According to a study of Britain’s 100 largest companies by ABN-Amro’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook (GIRY), over the 1900-2004 period high-yielders outperformed low-yielders by an average of 3.3 per cent a year. That may not sound much, but because of the wonder of compound interest, it would have meant £1 invested in high-yielders would have grown to £69,208 over the period – compared to just £2,963 for the low-yielders.
• Reinvest dividends, using other sources if you need income. According to the same study, such reinvestment would have boosted total return in US equities over the same period from 5.1 to 9.8 per cent a year, turning $1 into $17,545, compared to a mere $194 if dividends were not reinvested.
• Avoid the “blue chips” and invest in the smallest listed companies. In the UK, over the period 1955-2004, investment in small-caps (those in the lowest tenth by market capitalization), with dividends reinvested, would have outperformed the whole-market average by three times; investment in micro-caps (those in the lowest 1 per cent by market cap.) would have grown to a figure more than five times larger than for the small-caps.
• Invest in equities rather than bonds – but only if you have the endurance to stay invested through the bear markets. Over the past century, according to the ABN-Amro study, the global real return from equities averaged 5.7 per cent a year, compared to only 1.7 per cent for bonds. But “even in a lower volatility market such as the UK, losses (in equities) can be huge,” it warns. In the 1973-74 bear market, shares lost 71 per cent of their value in real terms.
• Focus your investment on resource-rich countries, while avoiding those that could be involved in armed conflict on their territory. Over the 1900-2004 period, the countries that delivered the best real returns from equities were Australia and Sweden (both averaging 7.6 per cent a year in real terms), South Africa (7 per cent), the US (6.6 per cent) and Canada (6.1 per cent).

Commodity Price Cycles, Katrina’s Inflationary Risks and Rising Gold Prices

The chart above courtesy of the BHP Billiton shows that in 200 years, the ebbs and flows of commodity price cycle comes in at least a decade with the shortest upswing cycle (inflation adjusted) coming off from the late 60’s to the early 1980’s.

Also noteworthy in the above chart is that today’s newfound uptrend is coming off from a very low base, even as commodity prices may seem to be higher than during the last 5 years.

Economist Julian Simon in his thought provoking book, The Ultimate Resource, showed that commodity prices decreases over the long run mainly due to increased supplies propagated by technological advancement. He made a controversial bet with environmentalist Paul Ehrlich in 1980, predicting that commodity prices (5 of Mr. Ehrlich’s choice) would decline in a decade and won. The chart above affirms Mr. Simon’s argument where commodity prices over the last century were apparently headed lower.

However, Mr. Simon’s theory does not preclude the cyclicality of the commodity price cycle where today’s demand-driven markets have been due to more people gaining access to markets, whereby increasing their standards of living which adds to the collective demand for commodities. While on the supply side, the years of underinvestment has restricted production supplies which has been unable to keep up with surging demand.

Further, to quote analyst Doug Casey of the International Speculator, ``While inflationary policies and wasteful government programs dissipate wealth, they also tend to increase returns on commodities. While the U.S. government is busily manipulating the money supply, my guess is that inflation is not as far below the levels seen in the ‘70s—the highest inflation figures of the last half-century and a trigger for the commodities spikes of 1980—as the Bureau of Labors statistics would have us believe.”

Relative to oil, according to Pierre Lemieux economist at Université du Québec in Outaouais, ``The relative price of oil (in terms of other goods) has fallen by perhaps as much as two-thirds between the 1860s and today. During the same period, the price of oil in terms of salaries has decreased by more than 90%.” Yet if one were to subscribe to Mr. Simon’s and Mr. Lemieux’s arguments of technological advances which leads to abundant supply, why is it the that world appears to be hostaged to or heavily dependent on fossil fuel as to be suffering from the stagflationary effects of exploding oil and energy prices today all over again?

Distortion of market forces by collective governments could be the key answer, namely, inflationary policies, nationalization of oil supplies, the non-transparency of actual reserves and excessive regulations and exploratory restrictions that has obscured investment allocation programs by investors’ public and private alike.

Referring to inflationary policies, Hurricane Katrina’s aftermath has resulted to extraneous and internal pressures on the US Federal Reserve to pause from its tightening policies. The OECD and several US lawmakers have requested the US Federal Reserve to forgo raising rates until a clearer view of the impacts of Katrina could be assessed. Chairman Greenspan could be pressured to accommodate on these politically prompted requests.

However, by doing so the specter of inflationary risks emerges, according to Northern Trust Chief Economist Paul Kasriel, ``But if the Fed does pause in its short-term interest rate increases, then a large part of this increased demand for credit will be accommodated through the commercial banking system with the Fed providing the “seed money.” Again, this would increase aggregate demand, not aggregate supply. Therefore, a Fed rate-hike pause in the face of increased hurricane-related credit demand would impart an upward bias on inflation.” This means government “counterfeiters” would be cranking up the printing press machines anew, according to CNN Money, ``Congress passed a $10.5 billion relief bill last week. The $51.8 billion first sought by the Bush administration Thursday covers five weeks and amounts to roughly $1.4 billion a day.” $62.3 billion of money ‘created from thin air’ and additional budgetary woes for both the state and federal government for the US!

As inflation concerns heat up amidst the interest rate debate, we see the gold prices creep higher nearing their 16 year record highs at $449!

As can be seen from the above chart courtesy of stockcharts.com gold prices in US Dollars (red candlestick) and the Euro (gold line) have moved at the higher end of the price channel threatening to breakout from its recent set 16-year record highs. Gold prices in Yen have also shadowed the moves of its major currency counterparts. Yet, this comes in the face of declining oil and copper prices!

Incidentally worldwide demand for gold has been strong up by 14% year on year according to World Gold Council as reported by Reuters while global Jewelry offtake zoomed by 15%. If the momentum persists we could see a new high for gold in the coming weeks or so!

Tucson Weekly: Censored Stories

This article from tucksonweekly delves on the several issues ignored or deliberately downplayed by the mainstream press for one reason or another, mostly political. Quoting the entire article...

Censored Stories

Project Censored presents the 10 stories the mainstream media ignored over the past year

By CAMILLE T. TAIARA

Just four days before the 2004 presidential election, a prestigious British medical journal published the results of a rigorous study by Dr. Les Roberts, a widely respected researcher. Roberts concluded that close to 100,000 people had died in the invasion and occupation of Iraq.

Most were noncombatant civilians. Many were children.

But that news didn't make the front pages of the major newspapers. It wasn't on the network news. So most voters knew little or nothing about the brutal civilian impact of President George W. Bush's war when they went to the polls.

That's just one of the big stories the mainstream news media ignored, blacked out or underreported during the past year, according to Project Censored, a media watchdog group based at California's Sonoma State University.

Every year, project researchers scour the media looking for news that never really made the news, publishing the results in a book, this year titled Censored 2006. Of course, as Project Censored staffers painstakingly explain every year, their "censored" stories aren't literally censored, per se. Most can be found on the Internet if you know where to look. And some have even received some ink in the mainstream press. "Censorship," explains project director Peter Phillips, "is any interference with the free flow of information in society." The stories highlighted by Project Censored simply haven't received the kind of attention they warrant, and therefore haven't made it into the greater public consciousness.

"If there were a real democratic press, these are the kind of stories they would do," says Sut Jhally, professor of communications at the University of Massachusetts and executive director of the Media Education Foundation.

The stories the researchers identify involve corporate misdeeds and governmental abuses that have been underreported if not altogether ignored, says Jhally, who helped judge Project Censored's top picks. For the most part, he adds, "stories that affect the powerful don't get reported by the corporate media."

Can a story really be "censored" in the Internet age, when information from millions of sources whips around the world in a matter of seconds? When a single obscure journal article can be distributed and discussed on hundreds of blogs and Web sites? When partisans from all sides dissect the mainstream media on the Web every day? Absolutely, says Jhally.

"The Internet is a great place to go if you already know that the mainstream media is heavily biased" and you actively search out sites on the outer limits of the Web, he notes. "Otherwise, it's just another place where they try to sell you stuff. The challenge for a democratic society is how to get vital information not only at the margins but at the center of our culture."

This list should not be taken as gospel; not every article or source Project Censored has cited over the years is completely credible; at least one this year is pretty shaky (see sidebar).

But most of the stories that made the project's Top 10 were published by more reliable sources and included only verifiable information. And Project Censored's overall findings provide valuable insights into the kinds of issues the mainstream media should be paying closer attention to.

1. Bush Administration Moves to Eliminate Open Government

While the Bush administration has expanded its ability to keep tabs on civilians, it's been working to make sure the public--and even Congress--can't find out what the government is doing.

One year ago, Rep. Henry A. Waxman, D-Calif., released an 81-page analysis of how the administration has administered the country's major open government laws. His report found that the feds consistently "narrowed the scope and application" of the Freedom of Information Act, the Presidential Records Act and other key public-information legislation, while expanding laws blocking access to certain records--even creating new categories of "protected" information and exempting entire departments from public scrutiny.

When those methods haven't been enough, the Bush administration has simply refused to release records--even when the requester was a congressional subcommittee or the Government Accountability Office, the study found. A few of the potentially incriminating documents Bush and co. have refused to hand over to their colleagues on Capitol Hill include records of contacts between large energy companies and Vice President Dick Cheney's energy task force; White House memos pertaining to Saddam Hussein's, shall we say, "elusive" weapons of mass destruction; and reports describing torture at Abu Ghraib

The report's findings were so dramatic as to indicate "an unprecedented assault on the laws that make our government open and accountable," Waxman said at a Sept. 14, 2004, press conference announcing the report's release.

Given the news media's intrinsic interest in safeguarding open-government laws, one would think it would be plenty motivated to publicize such findings far and wide. However, most Americans remain oblivious to just how much more secretive--and autocratic--our leaders in the White House have become.

Source: "New Report Details Bush Administration Secrecy" press release, Karen Lightfoot, Government Reform Minority Office, posted on www.commondreams.org, Sept. 14, 2004.

2. Media Coverage Fails on Iraq: Fallujah and the Civilian Death Toll

Decades from now, the civilized world may well look back on the assaults on Fallujah in April and November 2004 and point to them as examples of the United States' and Britain's utter disregard for the most basic wartime rules of engagement.

Not long after the "coalition" had embarked on its second offensive, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour called for an investigation into whether the Americans and their allies had engaged in "the deliberate targeting of civilians, indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks, the killing of injured persons, and the use of human shields," among other possible "grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions ... considered war crimes" under federal law.

More than 83 percent of Fallujah's 300,000 residents fled the city, Mary Trotochaud and Rick McDowell, staffers with the American Friends Service Committee, reported in AFSC's Peacework magazine. Men between the ages of 15 and 45 were refused safe passage, and all who remained--about 50,000--were treated as enemy combatants, according to the article.

Numerous sources reported that coalition forces cut off water and electricity, seized the main hospital, shot at anyone who ventured out into the open, executed families waving white flags while trying to swim across the Euphrates or otherwise flee the city, shot at ambulances, raided homes and killed people who didn't understand English, rolled over injured people with tanks, and allowed corpses to rot in the streets and be eaten by dogs.

Medical staff and others reported seeing people, dead and alive, with melted faces and limbs, injuries consistent with the use of phosphorous bombs.

But you wouldn't know any of this unless you'd come across a rare report by one of an even rarer number of independent journalists--or known which obscure Web site to log onto for real information.

Of course, the media blackout extends far beyond Fallujah.

The U.S. military's refusal to keep an Iraqi death count has been mirrored by the mainstream media, which systematically dodges the question of how many Iraqi civilians have been killed.

Les Roberts, an investigator with the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, conducted a rigorous inquiry into pre- and post-invasion mortality in Iraq, sneaking into Iraq by lying flat on the bed of an SUV and training observers on the scene. The results were published in the Lancet, a prestigious peer-reviewed British medical journal, on Oct. 29, 2004--just four days prior to the U.S. presidential elections. Roberts and his team (including researchers from Columbia University and from Al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad) concluded that "the death toll associated with the invasion and occupation of Iraq is probably about 100,000 people, and may be much higher."

The vast majority of those deaths resulted from violence--particularly aerial bombardments--and more than half of the fatalities were women or children, they found.

The State Department had relied heavily on studies by Roberts in the past. And when Roberts, using similar techniques, calculated in 2000 that about 1.7 million had died in the Congo as the result of almost two years of armed conflict, the news media picked up the story; the United Nations more than doubled its request for aid for the Congo, and the United States pledged an additional $10 million.

This time, silence--interrupted only by the occasional critique dismissing Roberts's report. The major television news shows, Project Censored found, never mentioned it.

Sources: "The Invasion of Fallujah: A Study in the Subversion of Truth," Mary Trotochaud and Rick McDowell, Peacework, Dec. 2004-Jan. 2005; "US Media Applauds Destruction of Fallujah," David Walsh, www.wsws.org (World Socialist Web site), Nov. 17, 2004; "Fallujah Refugees Tell of Life and Death in the Kill Zone," Dahr Jamail, New Standard, Dec. 3, 2004; "Mortality before and after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq," Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi and Gilbert Burnham, Lancet, Oct. 29, 2004; "The War in Iraq: Civilian Casualties, Political Responsibilities," Richard Horton, Lancet, Oct. 29, 2004; "Lost Count," Lila Guterman, Chronicle of Higher Education, Feb. 4, 2005; "CNN to Al Jazeera: Why Report Civilian Deaths?," Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, April 15, 2004, and Asheville Global Report, April 22-28, 2004.

3. Another Year of Distorted Election Coverage

Last year, Project Censored foretold the potential for electoral wrongdoing in the 2004 presidential campaign: The "sale of electoral politics" made No. 6 in the list of 2003-04's most underreported stories. The mainstream media had largely ignored the evidence that electronic voting machines were susceptible to tampering, as well as political alliances between the machines' manufacturers and the Republican Party.

Then came Nov. 2, 2004.

Bush prevailed by 3 million votes--despite exit polls that clearly projected John Kerry winning by a margin of 5 million.

"Exit polls are highly accurate," Steve Freeman, professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Center for Organizational Dynamics, and Temple University statistician Josh Mitteldorf wrote in In These Times. "They remove most of the sources of potential polling error by identifying actual voters and asking them immediately afterward who they had voted for."

The 8-million-vote discrepancy was well beyond the poll's recognized, less-than-1-percent margin of error. And when Freeman and Mitteldorf analyzed the data collected by the two companies that conducted the polls, they found concrete evidence of potential fraud in the official count.

"Only in precincts that used old-fashioned, hand-counted paper ballots did the official count and the exit polls fall within the normal sampling margin of error," they wrote. And "the discrepancy between the exit polls and the official count was considerably greater in the critical swing states."

Inconsistencies were so much more marked in African-American communities as to renew calls for racial equity in our voting system. "It is now time to make counting that vote a right, not just casting it, before Jim Crow rides again in the next election," wrote Rev. Jesse Jackson and Greg Palast in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Sources: "A Corrupt Election," Steve Freeman and Josh Mitteldorf, In These Times, Feb. 15, 2005; "Jim Crow Returns to the Voting Booth, Greg Palast and Rev. Jesse Jackson, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Jan. 26, 2005; "How a Republican Election Supervisor Manipulated the 2004 Central Ohio Vote," Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman, www.freepress.org, Nov. 23, 2004.

4. Surveillance Society Quietly Moves In

It's a well-known dirty trick in the halls of government: If you want to pass unpopular legislation that you know won't stand up to scrutiny, just wait until the public isn't looking. That's precisely what the Bush administration did Dec. 13, 2003, the day American troops captured Saddam Hussein.

Bush celebrated the occasion by privately signing into law the Intelligence Authorization Act--a controversial expansion of the PATRIOT Act that included items culled from the "Domestic Security Enhancement Act of 2003," a draft proposal that had been shelved due to a public outcry after being leaked.

Specifically, the IAA allows the government to obtain an individual's financial records without a court order. The law also makes it illegal for institutions to inform anyone that the government has requested those records, or that information has been shared with the authorities.

"The law also broadens the definition of 'financial institution' to include insurance companies, travel and real estate agencies, stockbrokers, the U.S. Postal Service, jewelry stores, casinos, airlines, car dealerships, and any other business 'whose cash transactions have a high degree of usefulness in criminal, tax or regulatory matters'" warned Nikki Swartz in the Information Management Journal. According to Swartz, the definition is now so broad that it could plausibly be used to access even school transcripts or medical records.

"In one fell swoop, this act has decimated our rights to privacy, due process, and freedom of speech," wrote Anna Samson Miranda in an article for LiP magazine titled "Grave New World" that documented the ways in which the government already employs high tech, private industry, and everyday citizens as part of a vast web of surveillance.

Miranda warned, "If we are too busy, distracted, or apathetic to fight government and corporate surveillance and data collection, we will find ourselves unable to go anywhere--whether down the street for a cup of coffee or across the country for a protest--without being watched."

Sources: "PATRIOT Act's Reach Expanded Despite Part Being Struck Down," Nikki Swartz, Information Management Journal, March/April 2004; "Grave New World," Anna Samson Miranda, LiP, Winter 2004; "Where Big Brother Snoops on Americans 24/7," Teresa Hampton and Doug Thompson, www.capitolhillblue.com, June 7, 2004.

5. U.S. Uses Tsunami to Military Advantage in Southeast Asia

The American people reacted to the tsunami that hit the Indian Ocean last December with an outpouring of compassion and private donations. Across the nation, neighbors got together to collect food, clothing, medicine and financial contributions. Schoolchildren completed class projects to help the cause.

Unfortunately, the U.S. government didn't reflect the same level of altruism.

President Bush initially offered an embarrassingly low $15 million in aid. More important, Project Censored found that the U.S. government exploited the catastrophe to its own strategic advantage.

Establishing a stronger military presence in the area could help the United States keep closer tabs on China--which, thanks to its burgeoning economic and military muscle, has emerged as one of this country's greatest potential rivals.

It could also fortify an important military launching ground and help consolidate control over potentially lucrative trade routes. The United States currently operates a base out of Diego Garcia--a former British mandate in the Chagos Archipelago (about halfway between Africa and Indonesia), but the lease runs out in 2016. The isle is also "remote and Washington is desperate for an alternative," wrote veteran Indian journalist Rahul Bedi.

"Consequently, in the name of relief, the U.S. revived the Utapao military base in Thailand it had used during the Vietnam War (and) reactivated its military cooperation agreements with Thailand and the Visiting Forces Agreement with the Philippines," Bedi reported.

Last February, the State Department mended broken ties with the notoriously vicious and corrupt Indonesian military--although human rights observers charged the military with withholding "food and other relief from civilians suspected of supporting the secessionist insurgency, the Free Aceh Movement," Jim Lobe reported for the Inter Press Service.

Sources: "US Turns Tsunami into Military Strategy," Jane's Foreign Report, Feb. 15, 2005; "US Has Used Tsunami to Boost Aims in Stricken Area," Rahul Bedi, Irish Times, Feb. 8, 2005; "Bush Uses Tsunami Aid to Regain Foothold in Indonesia," Jim Lobe, Inter Press Service, Jan. 18, 2005.

6. The Real Oil-for-Food Scam

Last year, right-wingers in Congress began kicking up a fuss about how the United Nations had allegedly allowed Saddam Hussein to rake in $10 billion in illegal cash through the Oil for Food program. Headlines screamed scandal. New York Times' columnist William Safire referred to the alleged U.N. con game as "the richest rip-off in world history."

But those who knew how the program had been set up and run--and under whose watch--were not swayed.

The initial accusations were based on a General Accounting Office report released in April 2004 and were later bolstered by a more detailed report commissioned by the CIA.

According to the GAO, Hussein smuggled $6 billion worth of oil out of Iraq--most of it through the Persian Gulf. Yet the U.N. fleet charged with intercepting any such smugglers was under direct command of American officers, and consisted overwhelmingly of U.S. Navy ships. In 2001, for example, 90 of its vessels belonged to the United States, while Britain contributed only four, Joy Gordon wrote in a December article for Harper's magazine.

Most of the oil that left Iraq by land did so through Jordan and Turkey--with the approval of the United States. The first Bush administration informally exempted Jordan from the ban on purchasing Iraqi oil--an arrangement that provided Hussein with $4.4 billion over 10 years, according to the CIA's own findings. The United States later allowed Iraq to leak another $710 million worth of oil through Turkey--"all while U.S. planes enforcing no-fly zones flew overhead," Gordon wrote.

Scott Ritter, a U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq during the first six years of economic sanctions against the country, unearthed yet another scam: The United States allegedly allowed an oil company run by Russian foreign minister Yevgeny Primakov's sister to purchase cheap oil from Iraq and resell it to U.S. companies at market value--purportedly earning Hussein "hundreds of millions" more.

"It has been estimated that 80 percent of the oil illegally smuggled out of Iraq under 'oil for food' ended up in the United States," Ritter wrote in the U.K. Independent.

Sources: "The UN Is Us: Exposing Saddam Hussein's Silent Partner," Joy Gordon, Harper's, December 2004; "The Oil for Food 'Scandal' Is a Cynical Smokescreen," Scott Ritter, UK Independent, Dec. 12, 2004.

7. Journalists Face Unprecedented Dangers to Life and Livelihood

Last year was the deadliest year for reporters since the International Federation of Journalists began keeping tabs in 1984. A total of 129 media workers lost their lives, and 49 of them--more than a third--were killed in Iraq.

In short, nonembedded journalists have now become familiar victims of U.S. military actions abroad.

"As far as anyone has yet proved, no commanding officer ever ordered a subordinate to fire on journalists as such," wrote Steve Weissman in an update for Censored 2006. But what can be shown is a pattern of tacit complicity, side by side with a heavy-handed campaign to curb journalists' right to roam freely.

The Pentagon has refused to implement basic safeguards to protect journalists who aren't embedded with coalition forces, despite repeated requests by Reuters and media-advocacy organizations.

The U.S. military exonerated the Army of any wrongdoing in its now-infamous attack on the Palestine Hotel--which, as the Pentagon knew, functioned as headquarters for about 100 media workers--when coalition forces rolled into Baghdad on April 8, 2003.

To date, U.S. authorities have not disciplined a single officer or soldier involved in the killing of a journalist, according to Project Censored.

Meanwhile, the interim government the United States installed in Iraq raided and closed down Al-Jazeera's Baghdad offices almost as soon as it took power and banned the network from doing any reporting in the country. In November, the interim government ordered news organizations to "stick to the government line on the U.S.-led offensive in Fallujah or face legal action," in an official command sent out on interim prime minister Eyad Allawi's letterhead and quoted in a November report by independent reporter Dahr Jamail.

And both American and interim government forces detained numerous journalists in and around Fallujah that month, holding them for days.

Sources: "Dead Messengers: How the US Military Threatens Journalists," Steve Weissman, www.truthout.org, Feb. 28, 2005; "Media Repression in 'Liberated' Land," Dahr Jamail, Inter Press Service, Nov. 18, 2004.

8. Iraqi Farmers Threatened by Bremer's Mandates

Historians believe it was in the "fertile crescent" of Mesopotamia, where Iraq now lies, that humans first learned to farm. "It is here, in around 8500 or 8000 B.C., that mankind first domesticated wheat, here that agriculture was born," wrote Jeremy Smith in the Ecologist. This entire time, "Iraqi farmers have been naturally selecting wheat varieties that work best with their climate ... and cross-pollinated them with others with different strengths.

"The U.S., however, has decided that, despite 10,000 years practice, Iraqis don't know what wheat works best in their own conditions."

Smith was referring to Order 81, one of 100 directives penned by L. Paul Bremer III, the U.S. administrator in Iraq, and left as a legacy by the American government when it transferred operations to interim Iraqi authorities. The regulation sets criteria for the patenting of seeds that can only be met by multinational companies like Monsanto or Syngenta, and it grants the patent holder exclusive rights over every aspect of all plant products yielded by those seeds. Because of naturally occurring cross-pollination, the new scheme effectively launches a process whereby Iraqi farmers will soon have to purchase their seeds rather than using seeds saved from their own crops or bought at the local market.

Native varieties will be replaced by foreign--and genetically engineered--seeds, and Iraqi agriculture will become more vulnerable to disease as biological diversity is lost.

Texas A&M University, which brags that its agriculture program is a "world leader" in the use of biotechnology, has already embarked on a $107 million project to "re-educate" Iraqi farmers to grow industrial-sized harvests, for export, using American seeds. And anyone who's ever paid attention to how this has worked elsewhere in the global South knows what comes next: Farmers will lose their lands, and the country will lose its ability to feed itself, engendering poverty and dependency.

On TomPaine.com, Greg Palast identified Order 81 as one of several authored by Bremer that fit nicely into the outlines of a U.S. "Economy Plan," a 101-page blueprint for the economic makeover of Iraq, formulated with ample help from corporate lobbyists. Palast reported that someone inside the State Department leaked the plan to him a month prior to the invasion.

Smith put it simply: "The people whose forefathers first mastered the domestication of wheat will now have to pay for the privilege of growing it for someone else. And with that, the world's oldest farming heritage will become just another subsidiary link in the vast American supply chain."

Sources: "Iraq's New Patent Law: A Declaration of War Against Farmers," Focus on the Global South and Grain, Grain, October 2004; "Adventure Capitalism," Greg Palast, www.tompaine.com, Oct. 26, 2004; "US Seeking to Totally Re-Engineer Iraqi Traditional Farming System into a US Style Corporate Agribusiness," Jeremy Smith, Ecologist, Feb. 4, 2005.

9. Iran's New Oil Trade System Challenges U.S. Currency

The Bush administration has been paying a lot more attention to Iran recently. Part of that interest is clearly in Iran's nuclear program--but there may be more to the story. One bit of news that hasn't received the public vetting it merits is Iran's declared intent to open an international oil exchange market, or "bourse."

Not only would the new entity compete against the New York Mercantile Exchange and London's International Petroleum Exchange (both owned by American corporations), but it would also ignite international oil trading in euros.

"A shift away from U.S. dollars to euros in the oil market would cause the demand for petrodollars to drop, perhaps causing the value of the dollar to plummet," Brian Miller and Celeste Vogler of Project Censored wrote in Censored 2006.

"Russia, Venezuela and some members of OPEC have expressed interest in moving towards a petroeuro system," he said. And it isn't entirely implausible that China, which is "the world's second largest holder of U.S. currency reserves," might eventually follow suit.

Although China, as a major exporter of goods to the United States, has a vested interest in helping shore up the American economy and has even linked its own currency, the yuan, to the dollar, it has also become increasingly dependent on Iranian oil and gas.

"Barring a U.S. attack, it appears imminent that Iran's euro-dominated oil bourse will open in March 2006," Miller and Vogler continued. "Logically, the most appropriate U.S. strategy is compromise with the EU and OPEC towards a dual-currency system for international oil trades."

But you won't hear any discussion of that alternative on the 6 o'clock news.

Source: "Iran Next US Target," William Clark, www.globalresearch.ca, Oct. 27, 2004.

10. Mountaintop Removal Threatens Ecosystem and Economy

On Aug. 15, environmental activists created a human blockade by locking themselves to drilling equipment, obstructing the National Coal Corp.'s access to a strip mine in the Appalachian Mountains 40 miles north of Knoxville, Tenn. It was just the latest in a protracted campaign that environmentalists say has national implications, but that's been ignored by the media outside the immediate area.

Under contention is a technique wherein entire mountaintops are removed using explosives to access the coal underneath--a practice that is nothing short of devastating for the local ecosystem, but which could become much more widespread.

As it stands, 93 new coal plants are in the works nationwide, according to Project Censored's findings. "Areas incredibly rich in biodiversity are being turned into the biological equivalent of parking lots," wrote John Conner of the Katúah branch of Earth First!--which has been throwing all its energies into direct action campaigns to block the project--in Censored 2006. "It is the final solution for 200-million-year-old mountains."

Source: "See You in the Mountains: Katúah Earth First! Confronts Mountaintop Removal," John Conner, Earth First!, November-December 2004.

Follies of Military Intervention, Strange Bedfellows and Unholy Alliances

``The government consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can't get and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time is made good by looting A to satisfy B. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods." -- H.L. Mencken Henry Louis Mencken (1880–1956), better known as "H.L. Mencken," 20th century journalist, social critic, a true cynic and freethinker, known as the "Sage of Baltimore."

I am disinclined towards making local political views, analysis or projections, however, when politics becomes a predominant factor in the directional flows of the market, it would be best for us to ruminate on the possible ramifications of the present developments.

The closure of the impeachment proceedings in the House of Congress has left as the only option the extra-constitutional measures to address the legitimacy concerns of the incumbent President. This had been seen with the present calls for military intervention by no less than Former Defense Secretary Renato De Villa, Senator Biazon, Senator Magsaysay and dismayingly my alma mater’s Br. Armin Luistro, FSC, president of the De La Salle University System.

While I am sympathetic to the cause (see July 4 to July 8^th, ``Denouement of the Political Tele-Novela?”), I see the thrust to involve the military in politics as fraught with unintended consequences. I would rather argue on the merits of a regime change via the parliamentary method than a military led junta. Nonetheless it is rather odd, if not callow, to see those opposed to the parliamentary model as advocating for the unelected military regime paragon.

The fundamental problem with this approach is that these unwitting conjurers of regime change via military intervention anticipate that once men in uniform or the ‘intervenors’ move, these political mouthpieces would be the recipient of the wrested power, as had been the case in EDSA I and EDSA II. No one amongst them has ever thought of what would happen if the military decides to usurp power UPON THEMSELVES and/or if the military happens to confront its own shadows...violently!

Like most investors who are glued to the recent past events in gauging the possible outcome or the ``rear view mirror syndrome”, the politicians and their klutz followers believe or hastily presume that a peaceful transition would automatically be the end result of any military led upheaval. In short they are guilty of oversimplifying the causalities of a possible military adventurism.

However, if there are any clues to the mindsets of those aspiring to institute a `new order’, the recent call by a clandestine group or the Young Officers Union of the new generation (YOUng) should serve as a stern warning!

The covert group allegedly would end ‘elite rule and punish all corrupt and cheating officials in government. (So this unelected and unaccountable group will arbitrarily determine who is corrupt and elite by their own measure as the prosecutor, judge and the executioner?!)

According to a published statement, covered by the Philippine Daily Inquirer, by a certain officer whose pseudonym is Lieutenant Colonenl Arsenio Alcantara, ``The new system shall be a total overhaul and encourage genuine nationalists and not the blabbering politicians whose unprincipled and shifting loyalties, like the opportunists ilustrados and traitors in the past, make our present political set-up unstable; a system that shall prevent political dynasties who behave like kings and queens in their own local kingdoms and treat their constituents as their slaves."

Are we so desperate as to be willing to sacrifice ourselves and our families to sanctimonious and messianic totalitarian/fascists regimes which eventually would end up being another `cure worse than the disease’? (Think Myanmar or Kim Sung Il of North Korea!)

Has anyone ever thought of what would be the chances that military interventions would NOT end up in a violent or chaotic struggle such as a civil war? It appears that our collective memories have run very short (Think December 1989-Makati Coup)! And that emotion has gotten the better over alot of us! Would our ‘military intervention’ advocates bear the responsibility of any attendant bloodshed once these fulminations turn into reality? Will they lay claim to blood spilled over their bare hands and knuckles? And over what principles as to justify such actions? Morality? On whose definition of morality; the communists or the facists or some ‘holier than thou’ preachers in between? Or for governments that continually does nothing but extort its constituents as HL Mencken describes above but fails to deliver its due services? (Think New Orleans!)

As Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggins wrote in their book, Financial Day Reckoning (emphasis mine), ``In markets and in politics, he is a fool as often as not –driven by whatever emotion that has taken hold at that moment –fear, greed, wanton confidence, disgust, the desire for revenge, bonhomie...But markets and politics are even more subject to delirium because they involve large groups of people....The madness of crowds has two important features. First, crowds can only know things in their crudest, most dumbed-down form. Since truth is infinitely complex, it follows that what a crowd thinks is almost reduced to a point where it is more lie than truth. Second, though the same emotions beset individuals as well as crowds, a man on his own rarely causes much trouble. He is restrained by family, friends and the physical circumstances. A crowd on the other hand, so magnifies his emotions and so corrupts his ideas that soon the whole society is on the way to hell.”

Talking about the whole society on its way to hell (remember the proverbial saying ‘road to hell is paved with good intentions’), the recent pro-impeachment rally typifies what unholy alliances, clashing ideologues and sleeping with the enemy is all about. Former President Cory Aquino (to recall the same futile public march against the Senate’s Magnificent 12 against the US bases in September 1991), alongside with Susan Roces (widow of deceased presidential aspirant and famed actor FPJ), Senator Panfilo Lacson, communists and leftist advocates Crispin Beltran and Satur Ocampo smacks of these conflicting ideals and temporary yet brittle alliances. To aptly quote economist/TV host Winnie Monsod in her article `Strange bedfellows’ (emphasis mine), ``only the naive can hold the belief that the ouster of Ms Arroyo through people power would make the country better off. Getting into bed with a strange bedfellow in politics may lead to similar results as getting into bed with a strange bedfellow for sex: It may have fatal consequences.”

Finally, it is noteworthy to remark that the recent horse trading as a result of the impeachment proceedings may have reduced the odds of a political upheaval via PGMA’s possible surreptitious deals with former first Lady Imelda Marcos and former President Estrada.

While the former President Estrada representatives have denied it (6 were reported to have been absent during the impeachment proceedings while the wife of former Estrada stalwart and spokesman, Cong. Dilangalen voting an ABSTAIN (?!)), Congresswoman Imee Marcoses’ absence in the impeachment proceedings has this to say ``Don’t blame me for the failure of the opposition in this noble undertaking. I can no longer contribute anything more aside from my signing the [impeachment] complaint despite the tension that has existed between myself and my mother.” According to a report from the Philippine Daily Inquirer, ``Marcos added that it was common knowledge that former First Lady Imelda Marcos had long been supportive of Ms Arroyo.” Talk about political baggage and heavily compromised leadership.

Which leaves the ‘strange bedfellows’ alliance and some inexorable pharisaical, gullible and meddlesome members of the clergy and lay ministers and their halfwit supporters advocating and praying over for military adventurers to attain their warped versions of Utopia.

UGH.

``Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana, "The Life of Reason" (1905)

Russia, China might consider replacing dollar in bilateral trade - expert

Russia, China might consider replacing dollar in bilateral trade - expert

MOSCOW, August 28 (RIA Novosti, Yelena Fedorova) - Russia and China might consider replacing dollar in bilateral trade, a senior banking expert said on the eve of the Third Russian-Chinese Banking Forum opening Monday.

Garegin Torsunyan, president of the Association of Russian Banks (ARB), said, "There are many ways to establish direct currency exchange and appropriate exchange rates with our Chinese partners."

A certain step in this direction has already been made when Russian and Chinese banks were allowed to open mutual corresponding accounts, he added.

At the same time, Torsunyan said it was difficult to establish direct currency exchange considering that the Russian currency was not convertible abroad.

The use of the dollar in servicing Russian-Chinese trade is the result of Russia's monetary policy, the expert said.

"The fact that we have been using the dollar in our trade with a neighboring country for many years while having a more stable and undervalued domestic currency is the result of our monetary and economic policy," he said.

"The value of the Russian national currency is much higher than we have currently set," he added. "Foreign countries evaluate the Russian currency on the basis of our own evaluation."

According to the expert, such under-evaluation is the result of "inferiority complex" and lack of self-respect in economic sphere.

In mid-term perspective, there is a necessity to form a "base currency" in South East Asia, he added. The Euro program was developed in the 1960s to counter the expansion of the dollar. Therefore, it is logical to form the third and the fourth global currencies, Torsunyan said.

"Until recently we believed it would be the yen, although at present this prospect is doubtful," the banking expert said.

He does not discard the possibility that the yuan or the unified currency of China and South Korea could be chosen as a "base currency" in the future.

What are the Saudis, Americans and the Chinese Afraid of?

Just as the US and European governments were offering to extend their surplus oil reserves to the hurricane blighted ‘thin-as-a-drum-supply margins’ of the US oil industry, now comes a report in the New York Stock Exchange that publicly listed Rowan Companies , an international and domestic contract drilling services company, announced that ``it has been awarded a term drilling contract by the Saudi Arabian Oil Company ("Saudi ARAMCO") for five Class 116-C jack-up drilling rigs to begin operating offshore Saudi Arabia in early 2006...The contract is for a three-year term and contains options for one additional year. Each rig is currently under contract in the Gulf of Mexico. The relocation of rigs to the Middle East will begin late in the fourth quarter of this year and should be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2006.” reports the yahoo biz news.

The contract according to Businessweek magazine was about 30% to 50% higher than a year ago which means that Saudi Aramco practically outbid the other energy companies from which the rigs are currently located at the Gulf of Mexico.

The $64 billion dollar question is, WHY would Saudi Aramco operate or invest in FIVE OFFSHORE or underwater oil projects in 2006-2009 and NOT ONSHORE rigs when they publicly claimed to have more than sufficient onshore supplies? Would they not prefer to operate on their cheaper oil first? Or are they running out of cheap oil that impelled them go offshore? Hmmm. This development more than meets the eye!

While admittedly Saudi Officials say that ``the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will be unable to meet projected western demand in 10 to 15 years.” notes the Financial Times, it appears that the OFFSHORE drilling projects are portentous of LESSER oil supplies relative to demand rather than the oil bear’s claims of growing supplies.

And to consider today’s rig rental rates have surged to $400,000 a day(!!) for the first time according to Bloomberg’s Bruce Blythe for the prized rigs that ``can drill in waters as deep as 10,000 feet (3,048 meters)”. There are only about 20 rigs around the world that has the capacity to drill the deepest waters. For rigs that are designed for waters 5,000 feet (1,524 meters) ``averaged $210,000 (!!) a day during the second quarter, up 57% for a year earlier according to ODS-Petrodata.”

Source: Energy Information Administration

The chart above courtesy of the Elliott Gue’s The Energy letter, shows that drilling activities have scaled to almost 20 year highs! While Oil drilling activities may foreshadow more supplies hence a bearish oil market, coupled with recent data showing US oil supplies above 5 year average, paradoxically, oil prices have continually spiked to fresh record highs. Why? According to Elliott Gue, ``The reason that high inventories and massive drilling activity aren’t pushing prices lower is simple: Demand growth is extraordinarily strong and oil companies are having a very hard time developing new supplies.”

Aside from the global demand which I previously discussed in my previous newsletters, here is another eye opener; the US and the Chinese governments have commenced on stockpiling of more oil!!

According to the recently enacted bill, the Energy Policy Bill of 2005, which President George W. Bush signed last August 8, 2005, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) would be increased to 1 billion barrels of oil from the present 700.6 million barrels!

In addition, China’s government is in the process of building its own version of the strategic petroleum reserves, according to Larry Edelson of Safe Money Report, ``China is building its first-ever strategic oil reserves. Indeed, China has already acknowledged it will start pumping the oil into the tanks right away — starting September 1...Just four sites — in Zhenhai, Daishan, Xingang and Huangdao — have the capacity for a total of 100 million barrels. And oil should start flowing into these tanks in just a few days.”

If we are to piece the puzzles together, we find the following interesting developments:

First, Saudi Arabia is diversifying out of its traditional reserves which could well be an impending sign of depletion from its current oil reserves.

Second, despite the tremendous increases in the daily lease rates for oil rigs to record levels, oil companies have shown no let up in the search for oil and energy alternatives. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia bidded up by about 30% to 50% more in contract prices to secure 5 offshore oil rigs which could again be construed as a sign of desperation??!!

Third, the recently enacted US Energy Policy Act of 2005 signed by President George W. Bush last month signifies the US government’s plan to underwrite additional reserves to the Strategic Petroleum Reserves from 700.6 million barrels to 1 billion barrels or by additional 43%.

Lastly, China has been in the rush to build its strategic petroleum reserves in 4 locations with a capacity of 100 million barrels with oil flowing into these reserves beginning this month.

Question: If oil is believed to be `speculatively high’, what do these major oil players fear from to initiate drastic actions to secure supply at current levels? Hmmmm. Peak Oil Theory perhaps?

If these fundamentals serve as any indications it looks like oil prices aren’t headed any significantly lower anytime soon.

Katrina: A Man-Made Disaster & Its Economic Consequences

``I am absolutely disgusted. After the tsunami our people, even the ones who lost everything, wanted to help the others who were suffering...Not a single tourist caught in the tsunami was mugged. Now with all this happening in the U.S. we can easily see where the civilized part of the world's population is." Sajeewa Chinthaka, 36, as he watched a cricket match in Colombo, Sri Lanka, according to a Reuters report.

I would like to take this opportunity to extend my deepest empathies to those afflicted by the recent hurricane Katrina.

However, in the face of a calamity that was NOT entirely unexpected, New Orleans which was heavily devastated is a bowl shaped city below sea level and has long feared of the catastrophic consequences from a massive hurricane. In fact, the city had ample warnings from several entities as the prominent National Geographic, academic luminary as Ivor van Heerden of Louisiana State University and even analyst as Mark Thornton of the Ludwig von Mises.org. Yet despite the warnings, the city degenerated into a disaster and at worst fell into anarchy, where looting, murder, rape and other crimes prevailed, as law and order broke down, something unheard of especially in the ‘supposed’ aegis of the world’s greatest democracy.

``Mother Nature can be cruel, but even at her worst, she is no match for government. It was the glorified public sector, the one we are always told is protecting us, that is responsible for this. And though our public servants and a sycophantic media will do their darn best to present this calamity as an act of nature, it was not and is not. Katrina came and went with far less damage than anyone expected.” wrote Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. of the lewrockwell.com.

As I have argued before, despite voter’s collective expectations that the public sector ‘knows what is best’ for its constituency, governments by nature are inherently inefficient, unaccountable, irresponsive, derelict and incompetent. Why? Mr. Rockwell gives an adequate response, he says that because ``they are not real owners. There are no profits or losses at stake. They do not have to answer to risk-obsessed insurance companies who insist on premiums matching even the most remote contingencies. So long as it seems to work, they are glad to go about their business in the soporific style famous to all public sectors everywhere.”

It happened to the United States, what more to expect from unstable developing nations as ours?

The world is already faced with abruptly expanding diversified but interlocking risks in the realms of monetary/financials, economics and geopolitics yet it appears that complacency is still the order of the day. Notwithstanding, in parallel to the New Orleans debacle, governments are once again expected to deliver us from any contingencies, most notably seen with the public sectors hands underneath the Brobdingnagian currency, interest rate and credit markets worldwide.

``If you sit there and do nothing, then you have adopted the New Orleans mindset: "Let the good times roll." (Yes, that really is the state motto of Louisiana.)” warns Professor Gary North, in his Reality Sheck column. To paraphrase the illustrious Nobel Laureate Hyman Mynski, ‘Stability breeds instability’, in short, the perception of government fostered ‘stablity’ could actually be an illusion in a world of accelerating risks.

Let us not forget that what the significance of the ports of New Orleans and the Mississippi to the US economy, according to John Maudlin, ``the centrality of the port of New Orleans and the Mississippi, if the Mississippi is not opened up for shipping, and the docks and ports are not cleared for loading and unloading, it is going to be a major hit to US exports and business, especially agriculture.”

In other words, the infrastructure displacement could serve as a supply shock that could distort global trade flows over the interim. For instance, US grain prices may fall as exports are deferred (excess local supplies which were meant for exports) whereas world grain prices may rise as a result of the distortions (temporary shortages). Chemicals, steel and other items that were normally coursed through the area could also experience price dislocations arising from the temporary disequilibrium.

More importantly, as Prof North wrote, ``Because New Orleans and the gulf area are central to the American oil industry, the marginal cost of oil has risen with the shut-down. This is well-known. Whether most Americans knew this could happen a week ago is doubtful. People assume that someone is in charge, that someone will guarantee the delivery of oil. But nature cannot be hemmed in at a low price. Market pricing will help restore the system, but a loss is a loss; it must be paid for.”

Craig Stanley of resourceinvestors.com notes that, ``The Gulf of Mexico accounts for around 25% of U.S. domestic oil production and 24% of gas production.”

According to the Washington’s post September 3 report, ``Eight refineries remain shut down, though two are in the process of restarting. Nearly 89 percent of daily oil production in the Gulf of Mexico was off line. More than 72 percent of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was off line.”

Tom Doggett of Reuters reports that `` The U.S. has lost production of about 42 million gallons of gasoline a day, equal to 10 percent of its normal consumption, because Hurricane Katrina shut down oil refineries and forced others to reduce runs, according to government estimates.”

The damage arising from the Katrina has so far been incompletely assessed as several oil rigs were reportedly adrift.

Damaged Shell Mars Platform at the Gulf of Mexico

Courtesy of rigzone.com

The US government has adopted several palliatives to the oil supply uncertainties such as the release of some strategic reserves held by the US government’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), Bloomberg’s Mark Shenk, reports, ``The agency will make 60 million barrels available, with 30 million coming from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, over the next 30 days, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the biggest U.S. oil-import terminal, and pipelines have opened. The U.S. relaxed clean-air rules this week in an effort to increase fuel supplies.”

Further, regulatory standards for gasoline blends have also been eased, additional report from Mr. Shenk of Bloomberg, ``The EPA just relaxed gasoline standards, making a greater volume available,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in Houston. ``Both chemically and physically it is easier to make winter-grade gasoline...The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Aug. 31 waived federal clean air standards for all 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories through at least Sept. 15 because of supply disruptions caused by Katrina. Refiners, importers, distributors and retailers will be able to sell gasoline that meets lower standards for emissions.”

According to Caroline Jacobs of Reuters because ``the EU nations have watched in horror as the world's richest country struggles with the aftermath of Katrina. Thousands are feared dead and troops in the flooded city of New Orleans have been told to shoot-to-kill to crack down on looting....Europe will dip into its emergency reserves of gasoline to help the United States through an energy crisis that began when Hurricane Katrina smashed into Gulf coast refiners, EU governments said on Friday.”

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder told a news conference in Berlin that he ``He expected a massive two million barrels per day of oil to be shipped over the next month -- more or less offsetting lost output from the Gulf coast's battered refineries.” adds Ms. Jacobs of Reuters. It would take around 10 days before EU oil reserves reach US shores taking in consideration yet the short supply of tanker space that could further delay shipment schedules.

Oil bears have been jumping in glee citing that the recent record of $70.80 per barrel of the New York’s Sweet Crude may have served as the watermark ‘peak’, reckoning that the present supply imbalances caused by Katrina failed to spark crude oil prices significantly past its previous record high of $70.5. Maybe.

However, the bears have inadequately addressed that in spite of the constricted increase in crude oil’s prices (+1.9% week-on-week at $68.16 bbl-November delivery), the refinery capacity constraints aggravated by Hurricane Katrina have resulted to staggering record-setting one week price surges in natural gas (+19.22%!!!) to $11.691 per British thermal units after reaching a record high of $12.3 Btu (!!) last August 31^st, Unleaded gasoline (+17.82%!!!) to $2.1837 per gallon after reaching $2.55 per gallon also last August 31^st and Heating oil (+11.75%!!!) to $2.0911 per gallon.

Put differently, while nation states may have excess crude oil reserves at the margins, there is no such strategic reserves for refined petroleum products, which incidentally affects consumers directly.

In sum, Hurricane Katrina simply exposed the fecklessness and ineptness of public institutions in protecting the public weal despite voter’s collective trust in them. This concern was highly aggravated by the fact that the economic significance of the affected areas, particularly of New Orleans, to the US economy was glossed over by the government’s presumption of a nonevent.

Apparently, the law of averages caught up, leaving the world’s most powerful government struggling to restore order. The damage has been done with numerous lives and properties lost and displaced. Unexpectedly, chaos reigned. More importantly, New Orlean’s contribution to the national division of labor would have to be suspended, as the city’s infrastructure had been ravaged. At present, the afflicted city would absorb capital for reconstruction rather than supply output.

The devastation has resulted to serious distortions in the economy, possibly a supply shock and heightened inflation concerns over the short term, whereby the thin margins of energy economics had been underscored at the wake of Katrina’s umbrage.

Moreover, exogenous events may further exacerbate the energy situation. This means prolonged period of high energy prices that may further squeeze consumer spending and corporate profits. Similarly, Katrina’s havoc was reflected in the financial markets, as US treasuries soared and the US dollar caved in. The prospects of a recession now loom larger today than prior to Katrina’s rendition.

Now the major risk factors stares the US economy at the face, namely, the aftermath and the unseen consequences of Katrina, soaring energy prices and the interest conundrum. The global financial markets watch in anxiety.