September 28 Philippine Stock Market Daily Review
Locals Panic
The Phisix tumbled during the later portion of the trading session to close 14.25 points lower or down by .81%, alongside the majority of the Asia’s bourses. Bloomberg’s Michael Tsang attributes the fall to concerns of rising oil prices, “Asian stocks fell after oil surged to above $50 a barrel, raising concern higher fuel costs will stifle economic and earnings growth…Crude oil for November delivery rose as high as $50.35 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was recently at $50.32. Futures haven't been at those levels since they started trading in 1983. Oil prices climbed 36 percent this quarter.”
Well dissecting the domestic market we find that foreign money remained upbeat with local issues accumulating P 107.060 million (US$ 1.898 million) worth of assets representing about 14.2% of today’s output while they likewise accounted for a slight majority or 53% of today’s activities. In addition, overseas investors bought 10 more issues than they sold in the broader market indicative of their upbeat outlook with Philippine equity assets. Furthermore, among the blue chip issues only Ayala Corp (-3.17%) took the brunt of the foreign selling together with minor outflows seen in Globe Telecoms (-3.19%). Coincidentally, these two heavyweights weighed on the Index while the rest of the field posted inflows from overseas money and were largely unchanged (PLDT, ALI, SMCB and SMPH) except for BPI who defied the bearish sentiment and rose by 1.09%.
While the blue chips were slightly affected by the late day sell off we note that declining issues led advancing issues by 56 to 19 or almost 3 to 1. Aside, industry indices were mixed with three decliners led by the All (-1.28%) index, Commercial Industrial (-1.07%) and the Property (-.84%) Index while three recorded advances OIL (+1.88%), Financial (+.53%) and Mining (+.21%). All these shows that the locals whom were unusually cautious since last week took these negative developments (cascading peso, surging oil prices, regional decline, et. al.) as possible trigger to the profit taking activities seen today even as foreign money continued to amass on the blue chips and other select issues. And the sharp declines of the recent local punter’s favorites, namely MPC (-6.9%), Digitel (-5.68%), Filinvest Land (-5.08%), DM Consunji (-3.73%), Union Cement (-5.55%), Empire East (-8.33%) et. al., simply attest to these developments.
Relative to the technical picture, the latest failed attempt to breach the resistance barrier of the 1,770’s levels could in the interim signal a bearish top or a ‘double top’ formation which means that the Phisix could fall further in the coming sessions, although today’s activities can be hardly be seen as such yet, given its premature phase. A breakdown from the 1,693 support level would in effect be confirming this bearish formation.
So far foreign money has provided the support to our market even as the fickle local investors found their catalysts to take profits. It remains to be seen if today’s sell off would be carried over in the following sessions and if it would affect the outlook of the broad market. However, the fundamentals for foreign money (easy money landscape, global liquidity and less correlation to the US markets) to invest in emerging market remains while the market’s historical patterns, cyclical shifts, seasonal strength and technical picture still points to a year end rebound.
Locals Panic
The Phisix tumbled during the later portion of the trading session to close 14.25 points lower or down by .81%, alongside the majority of the Asia’s bourses. Bloomberg’s Michael Tsang attributes the fall to concerns of rising oil prices, “Asian stocks fell after oil surged to above $50 a barrel, raising concern higher fuel costs will stifle economic and earnings growth…Crude oil for November delivery rose as high as $50.35 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was recently at $50.32. Futures haven't been at those levels since they started trading in 1983. Oil prices climbed 36 percent this quarter.”
Well dissecting the domestic market we find that foreign money remained upbeat with local issues accumulating P 107.060 million (US$ 1.898 million) worth of assets representing about 14.2% of today’s output while they likewise accounted for a slight majority or 53% of today’s activities. In addition, overseas investors bought 10 more issues than they sold in the broader market indicative of their upbeat outlook with Philippine equity assets. Furthermore, among the blue chip issues only Ayala Corp (-3.17%) took the brunt of the foreign selling together with minor outflows seen in Globe Telecoms (-3.19%). Coincidentally, these two heavyweights weighed on the Index while the rest of the field posted inflows from overseas money and were largely unchanged (PLDT, ALI, SMCB and SMPH) except for BPI who defied the bearish sentiment and rose by 1.09%.
While the blue chips were slightly affected by the late day sell off we note that declining issues led advancing issues by 56 to 19 or almost 3 to 1. Aside, industry indices were mixed with three decliners led by the All (-1.28%) index, Commercial Industrial (-1.07%) and the Property (-.84%) Index while three recorded advances OIL (+1.88%), Financial (+.53%) and Mining (+.21%). All these shows that the locals whom were unusually cautious since last week took these negative developments (cascading peso, surging oil prices, regional decline, et. al.) as possible trigger to the profit taking activities seen today even as foreign money continued to amass on the blue chips and other select issues. And the sharp declines of the recent local punter’s favorites, namely MPC (-6.9%), Digitel (-5.68%), Filinvest Land (-5.08%), DM Consunji (-3.73%), Union Cement (-5.55%), Empire East (-8.33%) et. al., simply attest to these developments.
Relative to the technical picture, the latest failed attempt to breach the resistance barrier of the 1,770’s levels could in the interim signal a bearish top or a ‘double top’ formation which means that the Phisix could fall further in the coming sessions, although today’s activities can be hardly be seen as such yet, given its premature phase. A breakdown from the 1,693 support level would in effect be confirming this bearish formation.
So far foreign money has provided the support to our market even as the fickle local investors found their catalysts to take profits. It remains to be seen if today’s sell off would be carried over in the following sessions and if it would affect the outlook of the broad market. However, the fundamentals for foreign money (easy money landscape, global liquidity and less correlation to the US markets) to invest in emerging market remains while the market’s historical patterns, cyclical shifts, seasonal strength and technical picture still points to a year end rebound.
No comments:
Post a Comment