Industry Trends During Recessions

The common impression is that when an economy undergoes recession, the entire range of industries sinks altogether. This isn’t always true since recessions signify a mismatch between the balance of goods and services in the economy. The industries that incur the gist of the imbalances or 'malinvestments' suffer most from the market clearing adjustments.

McKinsey Quarterly shows the shift in spending patterns during the previous 2 recessions 1990-1991 and 2001-2002.

To quote McKinsey Quarterly, ``Many companies can anticipate the performance of their sectors in a recession. McKinsey research shows that during the 1990–91 and 2001–02 downturns, for example, US consumers reprioritized their spending rather than cutting it across the board. Consumer spending dropped in discretionary categories like dining out, personal care products, and charitable donations. But expenditures for groceries, reading materials, and other options that substitute for more expensive ones actually rose. So did outlays on insurance, health care, and, above all, education.”

So basically NEED based industries tend to do well (as defensive industries) while WANT based industries bear most of the brunt (as people scrimp to adjust to the new environment).

Courtesy of Bespoke Invest (as of December 22^nd)

Although if today’s stock market performance should be used as gauge of the overall activities of the economy, it would seem that in general every industry seems affected.