``America’s policy is pushing China towards developing an alternative financial system. For the past two decades China’s entry into the global economy rested on making cheap labour available to multi-nationals and pegging the renminbi to the dollar. The dollar peg allowed China to leverage the US financial system for its international needs, while domestic finance remained state-controlled to redistribute prosperity from the coast to interior provinces. This dual approach has worked remarkably well. China could have its cake and eat it too. Of course, the global credit bubble was what allowed China’s dual approach to be effective; its inefficiency was masked by bubble-generated global demand. China is aware that it must become independent from the dollar at some point. Its recent decision to turn Shanghai into a financial centre by 2020 reflects China’s anxiety over relying on the dollar system. The year 2020 seems remote, and the US will not pay attention to something so distant. However, if global stagflation takes hold, as I expect it to, it will force China to accelerate its reforms to float its currency and create a single, independent and market-based financial system. When that happens, the dollar will collapse.”- Andy Xie If China loses faith the dollar will collapse
This episode of the stock markets in a fierce rebound has brought about exhortations of “greenshoots” and “prospective” economic recovery, which we have described as the reflexivity theory at work.
And as we have repeatedly been saying, the unparalleled scale of concerted and collaborative global central bank actions will ultimately be transmitted to the currency markets which subsequently will pose as the underlying current to financial market actions.
Figure 3: stockcharts.com: Falling US Dollar And Rising Stocks, Commodities and Treasury Yields
As governments continue to distort the market pricing process by providing subsidies, guarantees, fiscal spending and other interventionist measures, the pressures accrued from the imbalances will ultimately be vented on the world’s currency market which risks a cataclysmic collapse in the present monetary system.
Let me reiterate, this grandest experiment of the unbacked paper-digital money system has been 38 years old. If one would treasure the lessons of history, ALL paper money had been extinguished out of the propensity of the rulers to inflate or destroy the currency-mostly for political survival or wars, see our previous discussion Government Guarantees And the US Dollar Standard.
So those fervently praying for governments to “print money” as a way out of the present predicament or to “avoid a Japan” have been putting undue faith on a system which had temporarily weaved “short term” magic before, but at the cost of building a riskier economic and financial structure based on the exponential growth in systemic leverage and moral hazard, which only leads to worsening cyclical bubbles or worst a collapse in the world’s monetary architecture.
Yet policies that serve to uphold the economically unsustainable borrow, speculate and spend policies will ultimately meet its comeuppance. You can dream of printing away the economic crisis similar to Zimbabwe. But that dream we know only turned into a real life nightmare.
Yet, today’s global policy directions reflect on the very essence of why paper money has failed.
The present “boom” appears to be manifesting inflation as getting some “traction”.
As figure 3 shows, the Euro-weighted US dollar index (USD) has broken below its 200-day moving averages, which signals a regression to its long term bear market.
Some will interpret today’s phenomenon as the revival of risk appetite or the reawakening of the “animal spirits” especially when seen with rising yields of the long term US treasuries (TNX).
Some others will adduce market activities especially by the performances of the global stock markets (DJW) alongside rising commodity prices (oil broke above $55 and is now $58!) to prospective global economic recovery.
We hope both of these arguments are right because this will be the ideal “goldilocks” scenario.
From our end, we understand this “goldilocks” scenario as toothfairy economics simply because of the “the marginal utility of real goods and services divided by the marginal utility (mostly for portfolio and transactions purposes) of government liabilities” or inflation as defined by Professor John Hussman in our previous discussion Expect A Different Inflationary Environment.
In short, when more paper money is produced than real goods we essentially get inflation.
But think of it, if present trends will persist and inflation is indeed gaining traction, then rising commodities will essentially squeeze purchasing power of consumers and raise the cost of production for producers.
Meanwhile, rising interest rates will jeopardize or even defeat programs instituted by governments to ease debtor angst, especially in the crisis affected nations.
Aside, rising interest will translate to higher cost of maintaining or servicing debt for the government and the private sector.
So governments seem trapped in a fix; on one hand by allowing markets to function this will translate to the much dreaded (but needed) deflation, which policymakers won’t accept.
On the other hand, policies to pump money in the system will mean more inflation which essentially will undermine most of the programs that have been put in place to mend the dislocations brought upon by the present crisis.
More proof of inflation driving the currency markets in Asia which seems being transmitted to the stock markets? See figure 4.
Figure 4: Bloomberg: Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index (yellow), MSCI AC ASIA PACIFIC (green)
When Asian Markets are on a rebound as shown by the Bloomberg’s MSCI ASIA PACIFIC [MXAP:IND-green], the Asian currency benchmark Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index [ADXY:IND-yellow] goes positive-meaning regional currencies appreciate against the US dollar.
There appears to be a strong correlation between the activities in the stock markets and the region’s currency values possibly influenced by portfolio flows, relative economic growth, relative inflation and or yield differential expectations.
But I would like to remind you that currency markets aren’t free markets (no markets are actually free) and are subjected to repeated government manipulations directly (direct market operations) or indirectly (domestic inflationary policies).
Yes, today’s fiat paper money currency standard is a monopoly supplied by governments.
This makes currencies values vulnerable to political interferences which may induce short term aberrations where arguably market prices do not manifest efficiency.
Nevertheless, while imbalances can be deferred for sometime, in due course they get to be exposed by the natural forces of the market.
And applied to the Philippine Peso, in contrast to mainstream and popular predictions, we argued in 2009: Phisix and Peso Will Advance!, that the Peso like the Phisix will defy bearish projections, which had mostly been anchored on remittances and exports, made by mainstream experts who remain afflicted with rear view looking, ivory tower ensconced-laboratory based economic theories and an obsession with self-importance.
The Philippine Peso has been marginally up on a year to date basis with Friday’s close at Php 47.25 and quite distant yet to the Php 50-52 level predicted by the consensus of “experts”.
And based on the above premises, we expect the Peso to similarly reflect gains in the Phisix. In my view, the Peso will possibly appreciate towards the Php 45-46 level or better by the yearend.
And as a final word today’s boom in contrast to the 2003-2007 cycle which basically lasted more than 4 years maybe swifter, steeper and shorter.
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