GIGAOM.com showcases the projections of “Queen of the Net” or Morgan Stanley's Internet guru Mary Meeker.
All the following quotes from GIGAOM.com
Ms. Meeker first predicts the major dynamic:
"Two overwhelming trends that will affect consumers, the hardware/infrastructure industry and the commercial potential of the web: mobile and social networking."
Next is the evolution of the technology cycle from the Desktop to Mobile.
"The Morgan Stanley analyst says that the world is currently in the midst of the fifth major technology cycle of the past half a century. The previous four were the mainframe era of the 1950s and 60s, the mini-computer era of the 1970s and the desktop Internet era of the 80s. The current cycle is the era of the mobile Internet, she says — predicting that within the next five years “more users will connect to the Internet over mobile devices than desktop PCs.”
In addition, internet take up will increasingly migrate to the mobile spectrum.
"Meeker says that mobile Internet usage is ramping up substantially faster than desktop Internet usage did, a view she and her team arrived at by comparing the adoption rates of iPhone/iPod touch to that of AOL and Netscape in the early 1990s"
And in terms of application, connectivity is now largely driven real time via social networking platforms as email is gradually being dislodged as the main instrument of communication.
"On the social networking side, Meeker’s report notes that social network use is bigger than email in terms of both aggregate numbers of users and time spent, and is still growing rapidly. Social networking passed email in terms of time spent in 2007, hitting about 100 billion"
Another feature of the rapid adaption of technology would be the "creative destruction" as toll carriers lose ground on the increasing use of data.
"But that mobile boom will take its toll on carriers, Meeker says, because mobile Internet use is all about data."
As you can see the next set of "industrial" wreckage (and job losses) is already becoming palpable, as people (consumers) speedily migrate to new technologies to 'enhance' their web 2.0 based lifestyles.
This also means business models will likewise be changing, where those attuned to these changes are likely to benefit, while those who can't cope up with the swiftly altering consumer demand are likely to perish.
This only implies a deepening transition to web based businesses as new industries are likely to be created.
"One of the implications of mobile access is a growth in ecommerce, says Meeker, featuring things such as location-based services, time-based offers, mobile coupons, push notifications, etc. In China, the success of social network Tencent proves that virtual goods can be a big business, she says — virtual goods sales accounted for $2.2 billion worth of the company’s revenue in 2009 and $24 in annual revenue per user. Online commerce and paid services made up 32 percent of mobile revenue in Japan in 2008, up from just 14 percent in 2000. Meeker’s report suggests that the rest of the world — which is still below the 14 percent-mark — could see much the same trajectory over the next 10 years.
Finally Ms. Meeker gives us where the revenue side is likely to emanate;
"Meeker says that users are more willing to pay for content on mobile devices than they are on desktops for a number of reasons, including:
* Easy-to-Use/Secure Payment Systems — embedded systems like carrier billing and iTunes allow real-time payment
* Small Price Tags -– most content and subscriptions carry sub-$5 price tags
* Walled Gardens Reduce Piracy -– content exists in proprietary environments, difficult to get pirated content onto mobile devices
* Established Store Fronts -– carrier decks and iTunes store allow easy discovery and purchase
* Personalization -– more important on mobiles than desktops
Read Ms. Meeker's presentation via GIGAOM.com
Ms. Meeker appears to be validating what we think as a massive shift in the wealth creating process, which had been predicted by Alvin and Heidi Toffler in Revolutionary Wealth,
The Tofflers: "Several forces have been converging to drive the acceleration needle of the gauge. The 1980s and '90s saw a global shift towards liberal economies and hypercompetition. Combine that with the eighteen-month doubling rate of semi-conductor chip power and you get near-instantaneous financial transactions. (Currency traders can find out about a trade within two hundred milliseconds of its completion.) Put differently, behind all these pressures is the historic move to a wealth system whose chief raw material-knowledge-can now move at nearly real-time speed. We live at a pace so hyper that the old law that "time is money" needs revision. Every interval of time is now worth more money than the last one because in principle if not practice, more wealth can be created during it."
All the following quotes from GIGAOM.com
Ms. Meeker first predicts the major dynamic:
"Two overwhelming trends that will affect consumers, the hardware/infrastructure industry and the commercial potential of the web: mobile and social networking."
Next is the evolution of the technology cycle from the Desktop to Mobile.
"The Morgan Stanley analyst says that the world is currently in the midst of the fifth major technology cycle of the past half a century. The previous four were the mainframe era of the 1950s and 60s, the mini-computer era of the 1970s and the desktop Internet era of the 80s. The current cycle is the era of the mobile Internet, she says — predicting that within the next five years “more users will connect to the Internet over mobile devices than desktop PCs.”In addition, internet take up will increasingly migrate to the mobile spectrum.
"Meeker says that mobile Internet usage is ramping up substantially faster than desktop Internet usage did, a view she and her team arrived at by comparing the adoption rates of iPhone/iPod touch to that of AOL and Netscape in the early 1990s"
And in terms of application, connectivity is now largely driven real time via social networking platforms as email is gradually being dislodged as the main instrument of communication.
"On the social networking side, Meeker’s report notes that social network use is bigger than email in terms of both aggregate numbers of users and time spent, and is still growing rapidly. Social networking passed email in terms of time spent in 2007, hitting about 100 billion"Another feature of the rapid adaption of technology would be the "creative destruction" as toll carriers lose ground on the increasing use of data.
"But that mobile boom will take its toll on carriers, Meeker says, because mobile Internet use is all about data."
As you can see the next set of "industrial" wreckage (and job losses) is already becoming palpable, as people (consumers) speedily migrate to new technologies to 'enhance' their web 2.0 based lifestyles.
This also means business models will likewise be changing, where those attuned to these changes are likely to benefit, while those who can't cope up with the swiftly altering consumer demand are likely to perish.
This only implies a deepening transition to web based businesses as new industries are likely to be created."One of the implications of mobile access is a growth in ecommerce, says Meeker, featuring things such as location-based services, time-based offers, mobile coupons, push notifications, etc. In China, the success of social network Tencent proves that virtual goods can be a big business, she says — virtual goods sales accounted for $2.2 billion worth of the company’s revenue in 2009 and $24 in annual revenue per user. Online commerce and paid services made up 32 percent of mobile revenue in Japan in 2008, up from just 14 percent in 2000. Meeker’s report suggests that the rest of the world — which is still below the 14 percent-mark — could see much the same trajectory over the next 10 years.
Finally Ms. Meeker gives us where the revenue side is likely to emanate;
"Meeker says that users are more willing to pay for content on mobile devices than they are on desktops for a number of reasons, including:
* Easy-to-Use/Secure Payment Systems — embedded systems like carrier billing and iTunes allow real-time payment
* Small Price Tags -– most content and subscriptions carry sub-$5 price tags
* Walled Gardens Reduce Piracy -– content exists in proprietary environments, difficult to get pirated content onto mobile devices
* Established Store Fronts -– carrier decks and iTunes store allow easy discovery and purchase
* Personalization -– more important on mobiles than desktops
Read Ms. Meeker's presentation via GIGAOM.com
Ms. Meeker appears to be validating what we think as a massive shift in the wealth creating process, which had been predicted by Alvin and Heidi Toffler in Revolutionary Wealth,
The Tofflers: "Several forces have been converging to drive the acceleration needle of the gauge. The 1980s and '90s saw a global shift towards liberal economies and hypercompetition. Combine that with the eighteen-month doubling rate of semi-conductor chip power and you get near-instantaneous financial transactions. (Currency traders can find out about a trade within two hundred milliseconds of its completion.) Put differently, behind all these pressures is the historic move to a wealth system whose chief raw material-knowledge-can now move at nearly real-time speed. We live at a pace so hyper that the old law that "time is money" needs revision. Every interval of time is now worth more money than the last one because in principle if not practice, more wealth can be created during it."
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