Jack Welch Echoes Mark Twain on US Jobs Data: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Statistics can be massaged with the furtive intent to promote political agenda of the incumbent.

Jack Welch formerly the CEO of General Electric stirred up the hornet’s nest when his ‘conspiracy theory’ tweet on the latest US jobs data went viral.

From Bloomberg,

A good conspiracy theory is irrefutable. A bad one usually collapses when confronted by reality.

The claim by some supporters of Republican challenger Mitt Romney that President Barack Obama’s Chicago-based campaign doctored September’s unemployment figures for political gain fall into the second category, according to members of both parties who have served in the government’s economic data system.

Jack Welch, the former chief executive officer of General Electric Co. (GE), touched off an Internet-based frenzy yesterday when he suggested on Twitter that Obama’s team lowered the country’s unemployment rate to 7.8 percent to give the president a boost. “Unbelievable jobs numbers. . . these Chicago guys will do anything. . . can’t debate so change numbers,” he wrote.

The charge then was picked up by Arizona Senator John McCain and Florida Representative Allen West, both Republicans.

Welch’s message was re-sent via Twitter 3,832 times, meaning each of those people re-broadcasted it to their groups of followers, in the first 10 hours. Rebuttals posted by journalists on Twitter, including Keith Olbermann and Politico’s Roger Simon, were re-tweeted at least 300 times combined. Representative West’s message of support was re-tweeted 592 times.

As caveat, popularity doesn’t necessarily translate to the truth. In most occasion it has been the opposite.

(from Bob Wenzel)

But it has been noteworthy that the tepid growth of the recent job data has not been broad based (see above) and which comes amidst declining labor participation rate…

This likewise reflects on the slowest job growth recovery since 1948…

(both charts from Doug Short)

Yet soaring claims on food stamps and disability benefits

(from Zero Hedge)

…could be an instrumental, if not a principal, dynamic which has contributed to the declining trend of labor participants, as previously discussed here, aside from the Baby Boomers.

As the Zero Hedge rightly observes: 

Finally, and putting it all into perspective, since December 2007, or the start of the Great Depression ver 2.0, the number of jobs lost is 4.5 million, while those added to foodstamps and disability rolls, has increased by a unprecedented 21 million. Oh and about $7 or $8 trillion in debt. Who's counting really. 

Jack Welch’s tweet essentially resonates on Mark Twain’s famous quotation on the condemnation of statistics:

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.