Possible Complications from Turkey-Syria Clash

Politicians easily indulge in war without understanding the possible complications from their actions.

Turkey’s recent border clashes with Syria risks opening open of the old wounds which could further sow fissures and destabilize the region. The skirmishes could be used as casus belli or a prelude to a broader theater of conflict which includes the US and Israel.

Historian Eric Margolis explains,  

Turkey's neighborly love-fest ended soon after Syria erupted in civil war. For reasons that still remain murky, Erdogan dropped his "love-thy-neighbor"policy and began actively supporting Syria's insurgents.

Until the Syrian uprising, Turkey had enjoyed good trade and political relations with Damascus. Syria had more or less dropped its claims to Turkish-ruled Hatay province, and told its Kurdish minority not to make trouble for the Turks. Hatay, and its strategic port of Iskenderun, were part of historic Syria (as was Lebanon and Palestine), but passed with French help to Turkish rule in the last century. If relations between Ankara and Damascus continue to worsen, this thorny issue may again heat up.

Turkey blundered into Syria's civil war soon after it erupted in March, 2011. Ankara allowed Syrian insurgent groups, funded and armed by Saudi Arabia, France, Britain, the US and Qatar, to operate from its soil. CIA established an important logistics and communications base for the insurgents at the US air base at Incirlik, Turkey. US, British and French special forces based in Turkey discreetly joined in the war to overthrow the Assad regime in Damascus – all part of Washington's undeclared but very real and intensifying multi-dimensional war against Iran, Syria's closest ally.

Each passing day of Syria's brutal civil war raises the risk that Turkey will send its armed forces into Syria, either to create so-called "civilian corridors"or no-fly zones to ground the Assad regime's air force. All-out NATO intervention led by the US could occur after American presidential elections.

Meanwhile, the besieged Assad regime in Damascus has lost control of a northern border region inhabited by 2 million ethnic Kurds who have become autonomous. Ankara, which faces a virtual independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq and its own long-simmering uprising by its Kurdish minority, is deeply alarmed by the specter of Kurdish nationalism.

The war in Syria has accentuated Turkey's serious Kurdish problem. This writer covered the Turkish – Kurdish conflict in eastern Anatolia a decade ago, in which over 40,000 had died by 1992 alone. Turkey thought it had put an end to the Kurdish PKK insurgency by capturing its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, in 1999. The PKK's main base was in Syria.

Ocalan remains in prison. But the Kurdish independence movement has sprung again to life. Syria will very likely resume aiding Kurdish PKK fighters to exact revenge on Turkey for abetting anti-regime guerillas. This is a huge problem for Turkey as Kurds make up 15-20% of its population.

By fueling Syria's civil war, Erdogan has kicked the Kurdish hornet's nest.

The conflict in Syria is pitting its minority Alawites (an offshoot of Shia Islam), who dominate the Assad regime, against the long-repressed Sunni majority. As Syria's Alawites fight for what some believe is their lives, their struggle is reverberating in Lebanon, where Shiites make up the largest religious community. Turkey's long-marginalized Alevis, who are another distant offshoot of Shia Islam and close to Syria's Alawis, and who are looked down on by the Sunni majority as heretics, are also feeling the reverberations of the Syrian conflict. Alevis may make up as much as 15% of Turkey's population of some 74 million.

Recent revelations of a massacre of Alevis in 1938 at the end of the era of Turkish strongman Ataturk has inflamed Alevi emotions in Turkey and deepened their sense of persecution and historic injustice.

So the Syrian conflict is reopening some of the deep fissures in Turkey's body politics just at a time when its zesty economy was enjoying a 7% growth rate – not far from China's – and Turkey had become the Mideast's cock of the walk.

Now, Syria bodes ill for all involved.

Read the rest here.  

If domestic political situation in Turkey deteriorates due to its present belligerent acts against Syria, then it is not that history repeats itself, but rather the impetuous acts by politicians reignites hostile relationships which had been long buried in the past.

As Prof Joseph Salernon points out, 

As a human endeavor like any other, war making is the product of reason, purpose and choice.