Chart of the Day: Careers of Political Leaders

The Economist writes, 

A POLITICIAN, a businessman, a comedian and an economist walk into a room. Unfortunately, this is not a joke—they all vie for the position of Italy's next prime minister. At an election this week the politician received the most votes, but not enough to govern. A deadlock now ensues. The career background of Italy's previous prime ministers is similarly eclectic. Between 1973 and 2010, the two main jobs held by prime ministers before they came to power were split roughly equally between lawyer, professor, and politician or civil servant. Economists featured only three times out of 23. And elsewhere, prime ministers with an economics background are also rare.

According to a paper by Mark Hallerberg of the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, and Joachim Wehner of the London School of Economics and Political Science, policymakers with "technical competence" are more likely to hold office during a crisis. The authors found that a banking crisis increases the probability of having an economist as prime minister; a professor is more likely to hold the position during stockmarket crashes or inflation crises. Italy's Mario Monti and Greece's Lucas Papademos are recent examples. Unfortunately, voters seem inclined to get rid of them at the earliest opportunity.

Let us see how such a theory applies to the Philippine setting.

The record shows that the civil servant and lawyer background played a significant role in the Philippines political system for a vast majority of Presidents.

However recent trends reveals of a change. Since 1986, the trend of Philippine presidents appears to have gone against the lawyer experience.

11th Philippine president Corazon Aquino had been a housewife to a popular politician Ninoy Aquino. Mrs Aquino rose to political prominence after the assassination of her husband, which resulted to the ouster of the Marcos dictatorship and her presidency. So this seems to go in contrast with the notion of "technical competence" holding political office due to a political economic crisis.  

Another EDSA revolution figure, Fidel V Ramos, served as the 12th Philippine president had a career as military officer before ascending to the presidency. Mr. Ramos  graduated as a civil engineer and has a Masters in Business Administration in Business Administration for his educational background.

Popular film actor and 13th Philippine president Joseph Estrada has been a product of the Asian Crisis. 

Mr. Estrada’s career has mostly been as an actor and as local government official who rose through the national political scene. Mr. Estrada was ousted in January of 2001 in a popular revolution due to charges of corruption. Ironically, despite the EDSA II revolution, Mr. Estrada placed 2nd in the 2010 presidential elections. 

The Estrada election seems as another example that defies the study of the "technical competence" as post-crisis political leader.  Instead such reveals of the populist character of Philippine democratic politics.

I would think that this idiosyncrasies in elections is a country specific rather than generalized view.

The 14th and the 15th Presidents had “economics” as educational background. 

14th Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, beneficiary of the EDSA II revolution, had been an academic economist prior to becoming a politician. She was vice president to the ousted Estrada. Ms Arroyo won the 2004 presidential elections that has been clouded by scandals.

While Arroyo’s former student, and the incumbent 15th Philippine president Benigno Aquino III graduated as Economics major, but whose career had mostly been as local official.

The economists backgrounds of two recent presidents are hardly due to political responses from post-banking crisis. I may say that the logic runs backwards. Two presidents with economic backgrounds may have increased the risks of an economic crisis by embracing bubble policies.

 

Rather, since the Philippine presidency has mostly been about the spur of the moment politics, I think that the recent non lawyer trend may have been a happenstance. 

Sidestepping the professor-economist experience, the lawyer, civil servant and celebrity career records remain a dominant force in Philippine politics.

Nonetheless the increasing role played by economists and university profession (this applies according to the study cited by the Economist) in the field of politics tell us why we should distrust mainstream experts, as their mostly statist views could have been motivated by the desire to enter politics or to obtain careers in political institutions or agencies.