Quote of the Day: Experience is a continuous exit exam

Experience is not much of a teacher; it is, rather, a continuous exit exam. For we are not very good at "learning" from events.

- You are told that experience is accumulated knowledge when it is largely a survival filter, a fitness test. Those we call "experienced" are simply those who had the traits that allowed them to survive in a given function in order to be able do it for a long time: what we call on this forum absence of fragility.

- This confusion is similar to mistaking the Lamarckian for the Darwinian. There is some direct learning (Lamarckian) in experience, but it has to coexist with a stiff selection test.

- The consequence is that "experienced" people should limit their teaching to avoidance of fragility.

- And our preferences show that we get the point (intuitively): we tend worship old people when they are successful, and despise (and neglect) them when they are ordinary. Yet both have, technically, the same "experience".

This is from my favorite iconoclast theorist, mathematician-philosopher and author Nassim Nicolas Taleb at his Facebook page

I think that this "experience is not a teacher" observation seems highly relevant to the stock market industry. 

Many (if not most) "experienced" industry participants (veterans) never really seemed to have learned from their "experience". They are often swayed by other matters, particularly social influence (status signaling) or industry interest (principal-agent problem). 

While they have "survived" the sharp vacillations of the marketplace over the years (experience), their survival "filter test" must have come or emanated from other means or source for them to disregard or become oblivious to the lessons of their previous episodes of life. In short, they lack the skin in the game.

And yes, in general, the public loves winners or the "visible" and almost completely disregards the "unseen" alternatives. That's because the survivorship bias, which aside from the innate impulse to adhere to the law of least efforts has largely been ingrained to us by media. 

Survivorship bias effuses an aura, or even a delusion of hope. Such hope feeds on the optimistic 'feel good' bias of the general public.

Unfortunately much of the optimism channeled via the survivalship bias are bereft of real circumstances. And this is why superhero themes (one or a few protagonists saving the world) have constantly been a bestseller whether in the movies or in politics. Superhero themes embodies the visible, emotive values and short term gratification.

Note: I made additions (in italics) to my original comment