Social Cycles: The Rise and Fall of Civilizations

Cycle as defined by dictionary.com is “any complete round or series of occurrences that repeats or is repeated.”

And cycles are not only evident in natural sciences (e.g. planetary, organic, physics), but most importantly in the dynamics of human social relations.

Aside from business economic cycles which occupies much of the discussion of this blog, the rise and fall of civilizations is another example of such social cycles.

There are important lessons to learn from social cycles.

As example, Sovereign Man’s Simon Black has an eloquent narrative of the rise and fall of the French empire. (bold mine)

Throughout the 18th century, for example, France was the greatest superpower in Europe, if not the world.

But they became complacent, believing that they had some sort of ‘divine right’ to reign supreme, and that they could be as fiscally irresponsible as they liked.

The French government spent money like drunken sailors; they had substantial welfare programs, free hospitals, and grand monuments.

They held vast territories overseas, engaged in constant warfare, and even had their own intrusive intelligence service that spied on King and subject alike.

Of course, they couldn’t pay for any of this.

French budget deficits were out of control, and they resorted to going heavily into debt and rapidly debasing their currency.

Stop me when this sounds familiar.

The French economy ultimately failed, bringing with it a 26-year period of hyperinflation, civil war, military conquest, and genocide.

History is full of examples, from ancient Mesopotamia to the Soviet Union, which show that whenever societies reach unsustainable levels of resource consumption and allocation, they collapse.

Mr. Black goes on to cite a recent NASA funded study which identified 32 advanced civilizations that rose and collapsed. Again Mr. Black.

A recent research paper funded by NASA highlights this same premise. According to the authors:

“Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past five thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of population and cultural decline and economic regression.”

The results of their experiments show that some of the very clear trends which exist today– unsustainable resource consumption, and economic stratification that favors the elite– can very easily result in collapse.

In fact, they write that “collapse is very difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes.”

This isn’t exactly good news.

But here’s the thing– between massive debts, deficits, money printing, war, resource depletion, etc., our modern society seems riddled with these risks.

And history certainly shows that dominant powers are always changing.

Empires rise and fall. The global monetary system is always changing. The prevailing social contract is always changing.

Social cycles are a product of the same series of human interactions that leads to parallel consequences. In short, people hardly ever learn from mistakes to keep repeating them. And such cyclical transitions are hardly ever smooth sailing.

But not everything is bad news. 

Again Mr. Black.

But there is one FAR greater trend across history that supercedes all of the rest… and that trend is the RISE of humanity.

Human beings are fundamentally tool creators. We take problems and turn them into opportunities. We find solutions. We adapt and overcome.

The world is not coming to an end. It’s going to reset. There’s a huge difference between the two.

Think about the system that we’re living under.

A tiny elite has total control of the money supply. They wield intrusive spy networks and weapons of mass destruction. The can confiscate the wealth of others in their sole discretion. They can indebt unborn generations.

Curiously, these are the same people who are so incompetent they can’t put a website together.

It’s not working. And just about everyone knows it.

We’re taught growing up that ‘We the People’ have the power to affect radical change in the voting booth. But this is another fairy tale.

Voting only changes the players. It doesn’t change the game.

Technology is one major game changer. The technology exists today to completely revolutionize the way we live and govern ourselves.

Today’s system is just a 19th century model applied to a 21st century society. I mean– a room full of men making decisions about how much money to print? It’s so antiquated it’s almost comical.

But given that the majority of Western governments borrow money just to pay interest on money they’ve already borrowed, it’s obvious the current game is almost finished.

When it ends, there will be a reset… potentially a tumultuous one.

The 19th century industrial age top-down centralized model has been running on a head on collision with the deepening of the information age characterized by decentralization. And such underlying seismic shifts causes massive societal strains as previously discussed. This is what futurist Alvin Toffler once predicted as the Third Wave. 

And when the socio-political-economic system has been routinely abused to the point that the accrued imbalances reaches a climax and a critical mass, the system eventually implodes. Nonetheless people will adjust to such changes.Thus a reset.

This quote MISattributed to British lawyer and Alexander Fraser Tytler on democracy captures some of the essence of the political-behavioral cycle (wiikiquote):

The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

-From bondage to spiritual faith; 

-From spiritual faith to great courage; 

-From courage to liberty; 

-From liberty to abundance; 

-From abundance to complacency; 

-From complacency to apathy;

-From apathy to dependence;

-From dependence back into bondage.

The reset nears.