Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: More NATO-Russia Encounters, Military Balance in Asia, Blowback on Canada’s Interventions

Updates on the geopolitical risk theater:

1  Financial Times Nato fighter jets intercept Russian military aircraft October 29

An excerpt 

More than two dozen Russian military aircraft, including six nuclear bombers, have conducted “significant military manoeuvres” on the edges of Nato and European airspace in the past 24 hours, causing jets to be scrambled from eight countries as well as Nato’s own Baltic air policing force.

The incidents – three of which occurred on Wednesday and one on Tuesday – followed last week’s violation of Nato airspace by a Russian spy plane, the first since the end of the cold war. Taken together they constitute the most serious air provocation mounted by the Kremlin against the alliance this year, if not in more than a decade, according to Nato officials…

“These sizeable Russian flights represent an unusual level of air activity over European airspace,” Nato said in a detailed statement issued from its headquarters in Belgium…

The most significant intercept on Wednesday occurred in the North Sea. A force of eight Russian aircraft, including four Tu-95 long-range strategic nuclear bombers and four refuelling aircraft, were detected flying in formation at about 3am central European time flying from mainland Russia over the Norwegian Sea.

Six aircraft turned back, but two bombers continued southwards, close to the Norwegian coast and followed by F16s sent to intercept them by the Royal Norwegian air force. When the Russian aircraft then turned over the North Sea, RAF Typhoons were scrambled to intercept as they approached UK airspace. Portuguese fighters were later deployed as they came near the Iberian peninsula.

The aircraft did not file flight plans, had turned off their transponders and did not respond to any radio calls from civilian or military controllers.

2 TheAviationist.com German Typhoons have intercepted 7 Russian Air Force combat planes over the Baltic Sea today October 28

3 Vietnamese government blows hot and cold on China

a. Wall Street Journal Frontiers, Vietnam and China Agree to Better Manage Sea Disputes October 28

b. Economic Times, India to supply Vietnam with naval vessels amid China disputes October 28

4 Telegraph Mystery submarine sighting gives clue to Russia's Arctic ambitions October 28

5 RT.com France to hand over first Mistral helicopter carrier on Nov 14 – Russia October 29

6 Telegraph Seven reasons why Russia is spying on its neighbours October 29

7 RT.com Russian nuclear sub test-fires Bulava strategic missile October 30

8 RT.com Contract soldiers outnumber conscripts in Russian military – Defense Minister October 29

9 Al-Arabiya News ISIS fighters seen with advanced antiaircraft missiles October 28

Images from a video released by ISIS captured a fighter firing Chinese-made surface-to-air missile FN6 – and blowing an Iraqi army MI-35M during a battle in the oil-rich town of Baiji, north of Baghdad, according to the New York Times. Two crew members were reportedly killed as a result.

10 Al-Arabiya News ISIS militants execute more than 40 tribesmen in Iraq’s Anbar October 29

11 Spiegel Bound for Syria: German Kurds Join Fight against Islamic State October 29

12 Thomson Reuter’s Knowledge Effect: Military Balance in Asia Oct 27

13 ForeignAffairs.com Don't Mistake Russia for Iran Why the Same Sanctions Strategy Won't Work October 20

Given that Russia has reached out to many Chinese companies to help mitigate the pain caused by U.S. and EU sanctions, the United States would likely be risking dramatically more diplomatic tension with the Chinese by imposing such sanctions again. And that could complicate other issues in the U.S.–China relationship.

There’s another reason why potential new Russia sanctions that set East Asian banks and companies in U.S. sights might not be as effective as policymakers hope. Unlike Iran, Russia has a large, globally-integrated economy. It is more than five times the size of the Iranian economy and is an attractive investment opportunity. For many companies -- big banks in particular -- their business with Iran was not worth losing access to U.S. financial markets. However some firms, particularly in China, may conclude that their strategic interests and financial future lie with Russia. If they make this decision, there is very little the United States can do to get them to cooperate again

14 Laurence Vance The Newest Problem in the Military Lew Rockwell Blog October 28

Whether to call your commanding officer “sir” or “ma’am.” According to the William Institute, a think tank at UCLA that addresses lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender issues: “About 15,500 transgender people are serving in the military.” Service members are not permitted to take hormones to change their gender, but some have done so anyway. Things are getting pretty comical right now, especially regarding the use of restrooms, as this article shows. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has indicated that he is open to studying the transgender ban in the military. I predict that the military will lift the ban and be flooded with people who want to change their genders—at taxpayer expense of course.

Is this what it will take for Christians to end their love affair with the military? Too bad that the military bombing and killing people all over the world is not enough.

15 Ron Paul Once-Peaceful Canada Turns Militaristic; Blowback Follows, October 26

How the world has changed. Canada’s wise caution about military adventurism even at the height of the Cold War has given way to a Canada of the 21st century literally joined at Washington’s hip and eager to participate in any bombing mission initiated by the D.C. interventionists.

Considering Canada’s peaceful past, the interventionist Canada that has emerged at the end of the Cold War is a genuine disappointment. Who would doubt that today’s Canada would, should a draft be re-instated in the US, send each and every American resister back home to face prison and worse?

…

That is the danger of intervention in other people’s wars thousands of miles away. Those at the other end of foreign bombs – and their surviving family members or anyone who sympathizes with them – have great incentive to seek revenge. This feeling should not be that difficult to understand.

Seeking to understand the motivation of a criminal does not mean that the crime is justified, however. We can still condemn and be appalled by the attacks while realizing that we need to understand the causation and motivation. This is common sense in other criminal matters, but it seems to not apply to attacks such as we saw in Canada last week. Few dare to point out the obvious: Canada’s aggressive foreign policy is creating enemies abroad that are making the country more vulnerable to attack rather than safer.

My comments

Increasing tensions in the global military arena not only heightens risks of a world war, they also increase domestic societal frictions via the degradation of the community’s moral fiber. 

In the economic context, excessive military build up leads to the incremental impoverishment of the population as more resources are being diverted to non-productive and importantly towards socially destructive activities. Divisive geopolitics leads to protectionism which aggravates tensions.

In addition, military spending serves as an invisible transfer of wealth to the politically connected defense suppliers and contractors and affiliates and the bureaucracy.

In the political context, militarization leads to less civil liberties. Worst, deepening militarization has the tendency for society to evolve towards a police state.