Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Russia joins Arms Race?, ISIS gets Modern Weaponry, A Russia-US arms deal? and more…

1 Russia joins Space arms race? Object 2014-28E – Space junk or Russian satellite killer? Financial Times November 7, 2014

For the past few weeks, amateur astronomers and satellite-trackers in Russia and the west have followed the unusual manoeuvres of Object 2014-28E, watching it guide itself towards other Russian space objects. The pattern appeared to culminate last weekend in a rendezvous with the remains of the rocket stage that launched it.

The object had originally been classed as space debris, propelled into orbit as part of a Russian rocket launch in May to add three Rodnik communications satellites to an existing military constellation. The US military is now tracking it under the Norad designation 39765.

Its purpose is unknown, and could be civilian: a project to hoover up space junk, for example. Or a vehicle to repair or refuel existing satellites. But interest has been piqued because Russia did not declare its launch – and by the object’s peculiar, and very active, precision movements across the skies.

2 Cold war rhetoric deepens: Merkel of Germany Issues Rebuke to Russia, Setting Caution Aside New York Times November 17, 2014

Tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats. Russian naval ships showing up as world leaders meet in Australia. Chancellor Ang ela Merkel of Germany telling Russia sternly to play by 21st-century rules — and President Vladimir V. Putin practically spitting fury over Western reaction to his annexation of Crimea.

As relations between Russia and the West increasingly resemble the bygone days of the Cold War, Ms. Merkel abandoned her traditionally cautious tone on Monday, castigating Russia for its actions in Ukraine, for intimidating sovereign states in Eastern Europe and for threatening to spread conflict more broadly across Europe.

3 Mounting risk of a nuclear standoff? The nuclear gun is back on the table Financial Times November 17, 2014

FT’s Gideon Rachman expresses his concerns: (bold mine)

Thirty years on and the nuclear peace is still holding. But I am becoming a little less secure in my belief that nukes will never be used.

There are three reasons for my anxiety. First, the spread of nuclear weapons to unstable countries such as Pakistan and North Korea. Second, the growing body of evidence about how close the world has come, at various times, to nuclear conflict. My third reason for worry is more immediate: a significant increase in threatening nuclear talk from Russia…

Mr Putin seems to adhere to what Richard Nixon called the “madman theory” of leadership. The former US president explained: “If the adversary feels that you are unpredictable, even rash, he will be deterred from pressing you too far. The odds that he will fold increase greatly.” President Putin may be right in calculating that, by putting the nuclear gun on the table, he can always out-madman Barack Obama, the coolly rational US president.

Nonetheless, even assuming that the Russian nuclear talk is a bluff, it is still dangerous – since to make the bluff intimidating, the Russians have to raise tensions and take risks. Last week, General Philip Breedlove, commander of Nato forces in Europe, said that Russia had “moved forces that are capable of being nuclear” into Crimea. As fighting in Ukraine continues, the danger of Russia and Nato misreading each other’s intentions increases.

I see the danger of brinkmanship geopolitics from one of an accident or a mis-encounter from the current provocative stunts by both parties. From here, one thing may lead to another.

4 Russia in Isolation? : Russia, Turkey Inch Toward Improved Relations usnews.com November 17, 2014

5 Emerging Markets flex their military muscles?: India-China military exercise begins in Pune Indian Express.com November 18, 2014

6 Selective perception? Shock over ISIS beheadings but silence over Saudi Arabia beheadings, Janine di Giovanni says oil prevents criticism CBA.ca November 12, 2014

7 Pawns get hurt while leaders bask in vanity: Paralyzed Iraq War Veteran Tomas Young Has Died – Here’s His Final Letter to George W. Bush and Dick Cheney LibertyBlitzkreig.com November 12, 2014

Tomas Young: 

The Iraq War is the largest strategic blunder in U.S. history. It obliterated the balance of power in the Middle East. It installed a corrupt and brutal pro-Iranian government in Baghdad, one cemented in power through the use of torture, death squads and terror. And it has left Iran as the dominant force in the region. On every level—moral, strategic, military and economic—Iraq was a failure. And it was you, Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney, who started this war. It is you who should pay the consequences.

8 The European participants of ISIS; Briton and Frenchman Tentatively Identified in Islamic State Execution Video New York Times November 17, 2014

9 Using threats to get a better deal in the coming US-Iran nuclear negotiations? : Cleric: Iran Will Use ‘Suicide Operations to Send its Message to the World’ Freebeacon November 17, 2014

10 ISIS gains more sophisticated weaponry for every advance: As ISIS Continues To Gain Ground, Here's What The Militants Have In Their Arsenal Business Insider November 17, 2014

11 A Russia-US nuclear deal? Really? How about all the posturing from both sides? Theatrics for negotiation leverage?: U.S.-Russia Nuclear Cooperation Drawing to a Close Freebeacon November 17, 2014