Hot: Reversion to the Mean? Philippine 3Q GDP Falls to 5.3%!

Didn’t I warned about this last June?

Let me add to my act as the unpopular spoiler of this boom.

In near unanimity, the public has acquiesced to the narrative that the slowdown in 1Q 2014 annualized growth rates have been an aberration as explained above.

Unfortunately for popular wisdom, there is a possible non-economic, but financial-statistical force lurking behind the shadows. This is called the regression/reversion to the mean.

I also noted that 2Q 6.4% GDP represent an interim bounce: 

And this also means that the reversion to the mean is still in play, as I earlier wrote: if the laws of the regression/reversion to the mean will be followed (even without economic interpolation) then statistical economic growth will most likely surprise the mainstream NEGATIVELY as economic growth are south bound in the coming one or two years, with probable interim bounces.

Of course it's more than just mean reversion, but this would be a topic for another post.

From Bloomberg:

Philippine growth unexpectedly slowed to the weakest pace since 2011 as government spending fell, countering gains in private consumption and industrial production. Stocks slipped.

Gross domestic product increased 5.3 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority said in Manila today, after rising 6.4 percent in the previous quarter. That is lower than all estimates of 24 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

“lower than all estimates of 24 economists”—when everyone thinks the same then no one is thinking.