Monday, January 18, 2016

Charts: Middle East Stocks Crashes Again!

At the start of 2015, I warned that the growing frequency of crashes will converge by the year end. 
The black swans have arrived. Crashes have become real time events. But so far they appear as fragmented series of events than a global systemic issue. 2015 will most likely see the spreading and acceleration of this process. 

Oil and commodities have been collapsing. Macau’s casino stocks have also been in a tailspin. Casino stocks in Singapore and even the US have also been on a meltdown. US gambling stocks have diverged from her record peers. So applies with US energy stocks which has also been cracking. Interestingly the common denominator of oil, commodities and casinos has been China
At the start of 2016, 2015's legacy of stock market crashes have indeed been spreading, converging and accelerating


Yesterday (January 17), most of the Middle East equity benchmark crashed. (table from ASMAINFO)

Let us see how yesterday's crash fits into the long term perspective of the respective Middle East Benchmarks price charts


Kuwait Stock Exchange 


Saudi Tadawul


Oman's Muscat MSM 30



Dubai Financials


Abu Dhabi Securities


Bahrain All Share (all above charts from Bloomberg)

Of course, current financial market strains haven't been limited to stocks, they are also being manifested on their currency pegs (as discussed last night)

And Middle East stocks have not just been in bear markets, but rather, crashes have been intensifying. And current market actions look very much like incipient signs of an internally developing/progressing crisis. If the crashes and currency strains continues, then pretty much soon we will likely see an official recognition (via defaults or currency peg break). 

And if so, I wonder what will happen to Philippine OFWs?

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