I’m supposed to be still in a vacation
Two major pollsters seem to have delivered their final estimates: the winning Presidential candidate will likely win by a margin double digit margin.
Curiously, both have it that the winning candidate will possibly snare 33% of the votes cast.
Although I have pointed out that election surveys can be unreliable measures of actual outcome, they occasionally hit jackpot.
So in this post, I will use their similar projections as baseline for my own back of the napkin estimates
News reports say that there are about 55 million (54.4 million) registered voters.
Given that the last two voter turnover were 74.4% (2010) and 76.34% (2004), I’ll use the high estimate of 80% of registered voters as base for my estimates
So for the winning candidate, I’ll round out the 33% to 35%. A side estimate of 40% will also be presented.
So the population of registered voters who cast their will likely be at 44 million.
On the other hand, non voting registered voters will likely number 11 million
To translate the winning vote of 35% into hard numbers we arrive at 15.4 million votes. (17.6 million at 40%)
35% will account for the second smallest winning plurality votes following Fidel Ramos’ 23.58% (in 1992). It is much lower than President Joseph Estrada whom had 39.86%, GMA 39.99% and Benigno Aquino III 42.08%
If realized, the double digit margin will be the third largest following Joseph Estrada’s rout of Jose de Venecia 39.86%-15.87% (23.99% margin) and PNoy-Erap 42.08%-26.25% (or 15.83%).
These are the margins of the other post Marcos presidential elections: FVR-Defensor Santiago 23.58%-19.72% and GMA-FPJ 39.99%-36.51%
Ironically, 2016’s winning vote of 15.4 million will be marginally higher (+1.2%) than PNoy’s 15.21 million in the face of a 7.2% growth in registered voters (from 51.292 million to 55 million; 6.05% to be exact using the 2016’s 54.4 million)
Now to the 'none of the aboves'.
Total population for the Philippines as of 2015 was 102 million.
If we apply the same 60% distribution share of the population as voting age qualified, then we get 61.2 million of voting age population.
Deduct the 61.2 million from 55 million registered voters we generate 6.2 million (non registered voters)
So add the 11 million (registered voters who didn't vote) with 6.2 million (non registered voters) we get 17.2 million votes or 1.8 million in excess of the winning votes.
Yes this means the REAL PLURALITY is with the NONE of the ABOVE votes, or the group of people whom chose NOT to vote for whatever reasons.
It will take the winning candidate a 40% share of the 80% votes cast to surpass the silent plural minority
Incidentally, population grew by 10.4% in the span of 5 years (2015-2010) while registered voters grew by only 6.05%. This comes even as the nation's fertility rate has been on a steady decline which should mean that the 60% distribution share of the population as voting age qualified could most likely be on the low side. This implies that more people appear to be opting out of the voting process
At 15.4 million, the winning candidates actual share of the voting population will account for only 25%.
The takeaway: The gross distortion of the Philippine electoral process shows that 25% of the population will impose to the 100%, an externality or unseen costs of electing a wrong leader.
Worst, should the political economic path of the elected administration veer to the left, such externalities will be vented through the peso’s downfall. The unseen ramifications of which would translate to vastly increased political, economic, legal, institutional and social stability risks.
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it—George Santayana
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