In this issue

Phisix 8,450: SY Group and Ayala Corp Deliver ONE HUNDRED Percent of Weekly Gains! Lessons from Sodom and Gomorrah

-Lessons from Sodom and Gomorrah

-Top FOUR of the Five Issues Monopolize Gains

-PSEi's Top 5: The SY Group Erodes Ayala’s Share.  Sy Group’s Increasing Capture of the Phisix

Phisix 8,450: SY Group and Ayala Corp Deliver ONE HUNDRED Percent of Weekly Gains! Lessons from Sodom and Gomorrah

Lessons from Sodom and Gomorrah

In the Old Testament, Sodom and Gomorrah were cities deeply entrenched in sins and vices. To spare these cities from destruction, Prophet Abraham negotiated with God by proving that righteous people still existed in them. God agreed and sent his angels, who disguised themselves as guests of Abraham’s nephew, Lot.

However, ingrained and habituated to the imposition of abuses, the denizens of the city fixated on Lot’s guests. To excuse these guests from harm, Lot instead offered to sacrifice his two virgin daughters. The assailants refused then shifted to violence, but the angels blinded them.

Under the instruction by angels, Lot and his family decamped the city. Lot had also been admonished not to look back to witness the devastation "look not behind thee". Sodom and Gomorrah were, thus, consumed by fire and brimstone.

However, in defiance of the angels’ behest of not looking back, Lot’s wife morphed into salt.

It was not just vice and sins that condemned Sodom and Gomorrah to perdition, the perversion of morality assimilated as a cultural and ethical norm were the principal factor. Abraham wanted to show some exceptions which he failed to do.

Top FOUR of the Five Issues Monopolize Gains

How do the lessons of Sodom and Gomorrah apply to the state of Philippine markets?

 

Philippine populist politics predicated on the “end justifies the means” reflect on the state of the financial markets. Actually, populist politics signify a byproduct of the political systematic destruction of the purchasing power of the peso. Financial markets are just part of such emission.

In the context of Philippine stocks, the mainstream will do “whatever it takes” just to bring about a RECORD.

Whether through the price-fixing process or by coordinated pumps or even by a combination thereof, such milestone would have to be forcefully attained.

And it doesn’t matter if these actions would lead to the systematic degeneration of the markets and the economy. Instant gratification has taken precedence.

Vice has now transformed and assimilated as a societal norm.

A new record was not just on the price levels, but also in the degree of consummated depravity.

FOUR stocks, particularly, the SY group + Ayala Corp delivered ALL or over 100% of the PSEi’s 1.65% gains of the week!

Proof?

Let me use the difference in the market cap weight share between the week ending October 6 and October 13 (see middle pane).

The share weight of the top 5 issues (SM, SMPH, ALI, BDO and AC) jumped to an amazing 42.8% from 41.58% or by 2.93% the highest week-on-week gain since March 4, 2016.

The top 10 issues hold 65.82% weight and the top 15 comprise 80.33%. Seen differently, the top 5 accounted for over half of the top 15’s share weighting. The last 15 have been benchwarmers.

Even more, when segregated by quintile, the group of the top 5 registered not only an average gain of 3.11% this week; it was the only group that posted growth in market cap share! All the rest of the quintile categories suffered from dilution! (lower window)

Essentially, gains to the PSEi’s market share gravitated into the top four of the five issues, which came at the cost of the broader PSEi!

Simply amazing!

Such substantial advances in market weight share had been brought about by eye-popping weekly returns of BDO (+7.5%), Ayala Corp (+5.52%), SM Prime (+5.34%) and SM (+4.5%)! Truly stunning!

Security Bank (+4.67%) and Megaworld (+3.22%) also posted considerable gains which translated to increases in their respective market weight share. However, losses by their respective group quintile members more than offset their growth.

To top it all, the PSEi 30 breadth wasn’t as ebullient as the top 4 issues. Advancing issues (16) edged out declining (14) issues by two firms. 

Moreover, the Phisix ramp was bereft of broader market participation. Decliners trounced advancers by a considerable margin of 96 from a 532-436 differential. Sellers ruled the market unanimously or in 5 out of 5 trading sessions of the week!

The obsession to power up the Phisix, at whatever costs, has been evident in the blatant disparity in the performances of the top 5 compared to the broader PSEi, as well as, the broader markets

And these combined with the mark-the-close price-fixing process, the Phisix, thus, carved a fresh 8,450.

The end justifies the means, so what else could go wrong??

PSEi's Top 5: The SY Group Erodes Ayala’s Share.  Sy Group’s Increasing Capture of the Phisix

  

And here’s more.

Of the share in the market cap weight of the top 5, Ayala’s share (AC and ALI only, BPI excluded) has consistently been eroded or taken away by the SY Group!

More evidence that the Phisix has become an alter ego of the SY group!

And this gravitation to the Sy’s has NOTHING to do with relative earnings performance. Ayala has consistently outperformed its rival.

Question is: Which group or WHO has frantically been pumping up the shares of the Sy group of companies? Another question is WHY? Why the need for interventions if the SY group of companies has sound fundamentals?

SMPH’s Php 4.9 billion worth of related party purchases could be a clue to the current meltup. [SM Prime’s Growth Model: In 1H 2017, Every Peso of Growth Was Funded By SIX Pesos of DEBT! SMPH Bought Php 4.9 Billion of Related Party Shares! August 13, 2017]  But surely that would only be part of the answer.

With the SM group yanking the PSEi market share from the Ayala Group, one would have the impression that trading activities would have mirrored the same dynamics.

To the contrary, it goes the opposite way.

The two charts above reveals of two time frames: first, daily activities during the September pre-breakout and the breakout week, and second, the daily activities of the last two weeks.

At the PSEi 8,450 level, last week’s average of Php 7.31 billion of main-board trade volume had significantly been below the breakout high of Php 10.941 billion. Main-board trading volume grew by 11% week-on-week.

And instead of the SM group generating interests, volume has been building in the Ayala Corp. That’s because AC has registered substantial foreign buying over the past two weeks. On the other hand, the SY group and Ayala Land were bought mostly by locals.

The SM group’s volume, as a share of the main board and as a share of total turnover, has materially dropped last week to pre-breakout levels. That’s even as prices of its three issues have gone parabolic!!!

I was supposed to show the charts here; however the MDR newsletter I sent earlier already incorporated these. 

When share prices rise, this translates to a decline in the purchasing peso power relative to shares. Said differently, MORE pesos are required to buy the same number of shares.

Hence, the erosion of buying power for these shares at a higher price level would be embodied by a falling volume. And this is what we have been witnessing.

And chasing prices by relentless upside bidding requires funding. Funding would be derived from either injection of new money (spare income, savings or credit) or from a rotation in asset holdings (sales or liquidations of other equity holdings or financial assets). 

The non-participation in the upside momentum of the broader market partly suggests the latter.

Moreover, these funding dynamics have been amplified by the absorption of domestic risk assets by local participants. 

What has prevented the disgorging risk assets given the steep climb of these securities?

Perhaps, the encouragement by sell-side institutions to their clients to refrain from sales could be a factor.

Collaborative support from a cabal of institutions, both from the sell-side and the buy-side, to meet head-on any significant sellers could be another factor.

 

In the past, foreign money has either provided leadership or has accompanied locals in a bidding spree which led to the twin 8,100 levels. Not anymore.

This episode has almost been exclusive for locals. Foreign inflows like in September had been inconsequential (top chart). In a way, this time would seem different.

Finally, the Phisix may be at a new record in local currency terms or in pesos alright, but not when priced in the USD.

Strength in most of Asia’s currencies has brought about a febrile jostling for yields that has powered to region’s record-breaking stocks

The Phisix-peso, as one of the region’s outlier, has departed from this paradigm.

Instead of a healthy economy, the tandem has manifested increasing strains of monetary malaise. Worst, the markets have become vastly dependent on sustained manipulations.

This third breakout run by the Phisix hardly resembles a functional market. Instead, they seem like a Sodom & Gomorrah market.