Saturday, January 27, 2018

PhiSYx/PSYei 30 Breaks 9,000; SM Delivers Over 90% of the Day’s Gains!!!!

For the establishment, the end justifies the means.

The breakthrough attained today was engineered and were consequences of immense serial end-session pumps

The Philippine Stock Exchange celebrated:

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) broke past the 9,000 mark and finished Friday's trading session at a record high of 9,041.20, up by 42.03 points or 0.5 percent from yesterday’s close.

"While the PSEi was unsuccessful in its two attempts earlier this week to break the 9,000 level, today the index finally penetrated this important mark. The journey to record territory reflects the high confidence investors have in our market," said PSE President and CEO Ramon S. Monzon.

Since the start of the year, the PSEi has broken through new record highs for a total of 8 times.

"We are hopeful that the market's level will be sustained on the back of solid macroeconomic fundamentals and on expectations of upbeat corporate earnings from our listed companies. Our market is likewise in sync with regional bourses that have reached record highs this month," Mr. Monzon added.

Year-to-date, the PSEi has gained 5.6 percent.

The PhSYx was “in sync with regional bourses that have reached record highs this month”. Therefore, the breakout in regional bourses must have been due to “solid macroeconomic fundamentals” and on expectations of upbeat corporate earnings” as well.

Begging the question aside, let me offer another perspective whereby the index has “finally penetrated this important mark”

 
SM closed the day up an astounding 3.64% and with a market cap share of 14.01%

Relative to the PSYEi 30 pie, SM’s performance for the day contributed to a shocking 90%+ of the day’s gains!

Seen in a different light, the string of records has hardly been about macro drivels but about inflating the index mostly through the SY group of companies


 
Bloomberg provides an invaluable service of showing the intraday performance of the PSEi (PSYEi) 30, SM (top) and SMPH (bottom)

With the headline index down throughout the morning session, the afternoon delight came into action right after lunch break.

The initial pump directed at SMPH succeeded to boost the PSEi but was short-lived due to sustained selling pressures. As an aside, SMPH carried a market cap weight of 8.27% at the close of the day. 

So operations shifted tactically from SMPH to SM.

SM and the PHSYX caught fire about 10 to 15 minutes before the market intervention phase. A .8% marking-the-close push sealed SM’s stunning 3.64% advance for the day!

However, because SMPH was sold down by .643% simultaneously, this partly offset SM’s end-session inflation. Hence, the mark-the-close effect on the headline index was partly sanitized

Nevertheless, contrary to popular wisdom, the Phisix is not about the price and valuations 30 largest listed firms representing different industries.


Instead, the headline index IS about the SY group of companies, which presently controls nearly 30% (29.46%) of the market cap weighted index!

Mainly because of the SY group, the top 5 issues including Ayala Land and Ayala Corp has now corraled 44% of the index!

Oh, by the way, the market-weighted PER based on 2016 eps has zoomed to 29! That’s well beyond 1997 peak!

Yes for them prices can only go higher. And they (whoever they are) made sure of it.

The end justifies the means.

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