Programming doesn’t get altered by facts; it gets altered by a change in the program. The program is a narrative. It acts on the facts presented to it in accord with the narrative with which it has been programmed. Present the same facts to two different programs and you will get two different results—Bionic Mosquito
In this issue:
Why a Vaccine-Induced Growth is an Illusion: COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaxxed Europe and South Korea Surges! A Revival of Local Infection in February 2022?
I. Why a Vaccine-Induced Growth is an Illusion: COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaxxed Europe Soars!
II. COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaxxed South Korea Surges! Durability Issues of Vaccines: Will COVID-19 Cases Strengthen by February 2022?
III. Excerpted: A Study on the Loose Correlation of Vaccines and Transmission; Countries Banning or Limiting mRNA vaccines
Why a Vaccine-Induced Growth is an Illusion: COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaxxed Europe and South Korea Surges! A Revival of Local Infection in February 2022?
I. Why a Vaccine-Induced Growth is an Illusion: COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaxxed Europe Soars!
The establishment insists on this supposed causation: "faster vaccination rollout equals higher GDP!"
This short outlook intends to update my previous thesis.
Back in June, I wrote that the vaccine as elixir represented a mass delusion.
Coronaviruses naturally mutate. If so, how effective are vaccines against the original and mutant strains? And how lasting are its antibodies? More importantly, do coronaviruses build resistance against vaccines? Or do vaccines also cause or spur mutations in coronaviruses? What are the intertemporal side effects (adverse events) of these vaccines?
In any case, COVID-19 and vaccines are like a cat-and-mouse dynamic. It would seem like the current crop of vaccines chase the old strains while new strains emerge, rendering previous vaccines less potent and permeable to new infections or reinfections. A vicious cycle emerge.
Also, Why the Vaccine’s Herd Immunity and the Bakuna Bubble Will Fail! September 13, 2021
Have vaccines stopped the virus?
As of the end of August, Europe claims to have attained a 70% vaccination rate.
From the Reuters, August 31: The European Commission said on Tuesday that 70% of the European Union's adult population had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, hitting a target it set at the beginning of the year. The announcement marks a milestone in the EU vaccination strategy after a slow start, but it also masks big differences among EU countries, with some nations exceeding the 70% goal, while others in the poorer eastern region of the bloc are far behind.
In the past, to achieve herd immunity, experts recommended a 70% vaccine rate.
From WHO's Chief Scientist, Dr Soumya Swaminathan, August 28, 2020: So, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a highly transmissible virus. We think it needs at least 60 to 70% of the population to have immunity to really break the chain of transmission.
From the Inquirer, July 21, 2011: Herd immunity will only be achieved once 70 percent of the country’s population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Department of Health (DOH) Secretary Francisco Duque III explained Thursday.
The logic is simple. If 70 vaccinated people were inside a room populated by 100, a transmission among the unvaccinated would be limited and fade or die a natural death. This theory suggests the extinguishment of COVID-19, which represents the core of the zero-covid strategy embraced by many nations.
The gist is that vaccines would do their job of stopping COVID transmissions.
But…
From Reuters, November 13: Europe has become the epicentre of the pandemic again, prompting some governments to consider re-imposing unpopular lockdowns in the run-up to Christmas and stirring debate over whether vaccines alone are enough to tame COVID-19. Europe accounts for more than half of the average 7-day infections globally and about half of latest deaths, according to a Reuters tally, the highest levels since April last year when the virus was at its initial peak in Italy.
From Yonhap News Agency, SEOUL, Nov. 14 -- South Korea's COVID-19 cases stayed above 2,000 for the fifth consecutive day Sunday amid worries over a resurgence of infections, as the country relaxed its social distancing restrictions earlier this month in line with the campaign of "living with COVID-19." Throughout the previous day, 2,419 new coronavirus cases were confirmed nationwide, raising the total caseload to 395,460, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). The daily caseload has stayed in the quadruple digits since July 7, including the record high of 3,272 cases on Sept. 25. Of the total, 2,401 were local infections. Eighteen cases came from overseas, bringing the total of such cases to 15,370, the KDCA said. The country added 20 more deaths from COVID-19, raising the death toll to 3,103. The fatality rate stood at 0.78 percent. The number of patients in critical condition reached 483 after jumping to an all-time high of 485 the previous day.
From BurlingtonFreePress.com, November 10: Positive cases have been climbing in Vermont in recent weeks despite the state's having one of the highest vaccination rates against the virus in the U.S. Cases rose last year around this time as well as people spent more time indoors, but the state still enjoyed one of the lowest case rates in the country then. Cases in Vermont have increased by about 55% over the last 14 days, according to a modeling report by Financial Regulation Commissioner Mike Pieciak. Some recent days have seen daily cases spike above 400 — the highest Vermont has seen since the beginning of the pandemic.
Figure 1
Despite the 70% vaxx rates, Europe’s daily infections have reached the non-vaxxed highs of the 4Q of 2020s!
The more stunning graphs are those of the daily infection rates of Germany and Greece.
Despite the 67% vaxx rates, daily infections in Germany have topped the 1st wave non-vaxxed highs of 2020 by about 40%!
Despite the 62.2% vaxx rates, daily infections in Greece have ALMOST DOUBLED the 1st wave non-vaxxed highs of 2020!
The daily infection rates of other countries as Finland, Austria, Norway, Netherlands, and Iceland have reached all-time highs despite the vaxx rates of 71.4%, 63.3%, 70.1%, and 81.4%, respectively.
Instead of the unvaxxed, the current wave of transmission emanates from the vaxxed population, comprising the dominant share of the population.
II. COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaxxed South Korea Surges! Durability Issues of Vaccines: Will COVID-19 Cases Strengthen by February 2022?
A similar dynamic remains visible in the City of Mandaluyong. Despite the recent plunge in infections, Covid-19 breakthrough cases dominate the transmissions. From July 29 to November 14, vaxxed (full and one-dose) constitute 66.36% of total infections.
Figure 2
In Europe, it is not just infections, although lower from the unvaxxed days, the current wave of COVID infections among the vaxxed population hasn’t stopped people from dying.
And COVID-19 transmission and deaths are raging in South Korea despite the 78% vaxxed rates!
Figure 3
In the US, Covid-19 transmissions are even worst today in Vermont, one of the highest vaxxed states than the pre-vaxxed days! Death rates have likewise reached the pre-vaxxed heights!
Aside from leaky vaccines, durability issues may have constituted part of the current explosion of transmission cases in vaxxed Europe. Or, the expiring protection period of about six months provided by vaccines may have fueled the surge.
Durability issues had been one of the key factors in the latest outbreak in Pfizer country fully vaxxed Israel. With close to 50% of the population receiving a third dose or a booster, Israel’s cases have plummeted. I’ll guess that by about 6-months or by April 2022, we might see a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
Meanwhile, authorities in Singapore have also started to deploy booster shots to the elderly. Covid-19 cases appear to have peaked and started to decline this November.
If durability issues signify a valid concern, COVID-19 cases may start to strengthen (when the 6-months protection period of the first wave of vaccination expires or substantially weakens) in the Philippines. The period for this to possibly happen is on January or February 2022.
Signs of seeding of COVID-19 cases have also surfaced in many countries in Latin America. Are they the next candidate for an outbreak?
The bottom line: When vaccines are not fulfilling their expected role, it would be a FOLLY to associate the COVID-19 vaccination rates with the economic performance.
Sources for all data used: Our World in Data, JHU CSSE COVID-19, FT Vaccine Tracker
III. Excerpted: A Study on the Loose Correlation of Vaccines and Transmission; Countries Banning or Limiting mRNA vaccines
Two more issues before I close.
The first is a quote from an article/study on the lack of correlation between increases in vaccination rates and Covid Transmission.
S.V. Subramanian and A Kumar conclude:
The sole reliance on vaccination as a primary strategy to mitigate COVID-19 and its adverse consequences needs to be re-examined, especially considering the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant and the likelihood of future variants. Other pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions may need to be put in place alongside increasing vaccination rates. Such course correction, especially with regards to the policy narrative, becomes paramount with emerging scientific evidence on real world effectiveness of the vaccines.
For instance, in a report released from the Ministry of Health in Israel, the effectiveness of 2 doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine against preventing COVID-19 infection was reported to be 39% [6], substantially lower than the trial efficacy of 96% [7]. It is also emerging that immunity derived from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine may not be as strong as immunity acquired through recovery from the COVID-19 virus [8]. A substantial decline in immunity from mRNA vaccines 6-months post immunization has also been reported [9]. Even though vaccinations offers protection to individuals against severe hospitalization and death, the CDC reported an increase from 0.01 to 9% and 0 to 15.1% (between January to May 2021) in the rates of hospitalizations and deaths, respectively, amongst the fully vaccinated [10].
In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus.
S.V. Subramanian and Akhil Kumar, Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States, European Journal of Epidemiology, Springer Link, September 30
The last one comprises select news on the safety of vaccines that barely makes it on domestic media.
From the Suburban, October 8: Finland has joined Sweden, Denmark and Norway in either banning or discouraging young adults or teens from getting the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, because of the increased risk of myocarditis — heart inflammation.
From the Forbes, November 10: Germany’s vaccine advisory board on Wednesday recommended against using Moderna’s Covid-19 shot in people under 30 due to evidence suggesting a very small risk of heart inflammation, joining France and a string of other European countries restricting the vaccine as coronavirus cases across the continent soar to record levels.
From Taiwan News, November 10: Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) head Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) said on Wednesday (Nov. 10) that a panel of experts has decided to suspend administering second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT) COVID vaccine to children 12-17 years old amid concerns it may increase the risk of myocarditis. Cases of myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) and pericarditis (inflammation of the outer lining of the heart) have been reported after BNT vaccination of children between 12 and 17 years of age. According to U.S. statistics, the risk of youths experiencing myocarditis after receiving the second BNT dose is 10 times higher than after the first dose, CNA reported.
Yours in liberty,
The Prudent Investor Newsletters
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