It is the paper money created out of thin air that creates the unfair distribution of wealth that is making the middle class fall more behind and the poor more poor. Newly created money and credit in a paper money system benefits those that can access the money first and buy capital goods and real property at one price before the new money circulates and makes all prices go up. Wages also do not keep up with inflation and that creates another squeeze on the middle class—Kenneth Gerbino
March Headline CPI Slipped to 7.6% as Core CPI Stormed to 22-Year Highs! DA Warns of Higher Rice Prices as OPEC Cuts Oil Production
While March Headline CPI slowed, Core CPI raced to a 22-year high fueled by a boom in consumer credit. The DA warns of higher rice prices while OPEC agreed to a production cut.
Headline CPI Slipped to 7.6% as Core CPI Stormed to 22-Year Highs! Credit Card and Salary Loans Soar!
Reuters/Interaksyon.Philstar, April 5: Philippine annual inflation eased for a second straight month in March but still remained above target, the statistics agency said on Wednesday, reflecting slower increases in food and transport costs. The consumer price index PHCPI=ECI rose 7.6% in March, below the 8.0% forecast in a Reuters poll, and marked the slowest pace of price increase in six months. But core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel items, accelerated to 8.0% in March from February’s 7.8%, indicating price pressures remain.
The following excerpt represents an update on my March post. My conclusion: (bold and italics original)
And yes, we may be seeing peak inflation for this second wave. The first wave was in 2015-2018. The cracks in bank lending have emerged while Treasury markets exhibit a sharp tightening.
Furthermore, both banks and the BSP have scaled down their liquidity interventions. The BSP has reversed most of the December injections.
But the coming CPI slowdown may be a transition to a more potent third wave—all of which will be anchored on the path dependency politics of deficit spending by the executive branch and the priority of maintaining and expanding liquidity by the BSP. (Prudent Investor, 2023)
Economics is thought-provoking. It is not because of statistics. Instead, the micro and macro domain exhibit part of the panorama of the complex interrelationships of human actions.
For instance, we demonstrated here how the CORE CPI resonated with the consumer credit-driven surge in the record sales of Robinsons Retail [PSE: RRHI]. (Prudent Investor, 2023)
This perspective provided a different angle from the supply-side inflation peddled by the mainstream.
Figure 1
Nonetheless, mainstream media covered it: headline inflation slowed to 7.6%, below the consensus expectations, but the Core CPI accelerated to a 22-year high! (Figure 1, top and middle windows)
Its gist: Reduced pressures on food and energy prices while consumers bought up other items last March.
Or, inflation has spread from the core (food and energy) to the periphery (all others).
Without money funding it, there can't be a sustained generalized increase in the prices of goods and services.
Sure enough, consumer credit, primarily bank credit card growth, continued with its string of record highs.
Salary loan growth also reaccelerated to a new record (in %). (Figure 1, lowest graph)
The credit card and salary loan data also suggest strong topline performance for retail chain sales in the 1Q.
Figure 2
In any case, the BSP's recent spate of rate hikes has yet to percolate into credit card growth, although the blazing growth rates (MoM and YoY) seem to be rolling over. (Figure 2, higher window)
Nonetheless, the slowing rate of total bank loan growth—from the industry—has coincided with the decline of the headline CPI. (Figure 2, lower chart) That is, lesser money chasing fewer goods.
Public Spending, BSP and Bank Net Claims and the USD Php; CORE CPI Segments
How about the other sources of inflation?
Figure 3
January 2023’s 53.3% MoM plunge in public spending could have contributed to the slowing demand. Public spending was almost unchanged (+.01% YoY) last February. (Figure 3, topmost diagram)
With the decline in public spending, direct financing of the deficit by the BSP (net claims on Central Government) also tumbled last March (-15.3% MoM, 46.3% YoY), effectively draining some liquidity from the system, thus partially resulting in the decline of the March CPI. (Figure 3, middle chart)
Nonetheless, banks continue to fund the national government via net claims on the central government. In February, net claims by banks rose by 17.44% YoY and 2.6% MoM to Php 4.48 trillion—slightly off the December record of Php 4.53 trillion. (Figure 3, lowest window)
So, banks have infused liquidity into the system in lieu of the BSP but at a slower rate.
Figure 4
The recent firming of the peso or weakening of the USD has also contributed to the fall of the headline CPI. (Figure 4, topmost graph)
Anent the CORE CPI, it is interesting to note that in the segment data of the CPI, declining oil prices have pulled the transport CPI lower, but furnishing, clothing, and personal care/Misc goods CPI accelerated last March. (Figure 4, middle and lowest charts)
Rising Rice Prices and OPEC Oil Production Cuts, the Age of Inflation 2.0 Redux
Figure 5
And though the drop in food and beverage CPI was responsible for most of the decline, the Department of Agriculture recently warned of increases in rice prices. The food and beverage segment has the largest weighting (37.75%) in the CPI basket.
Since 2H 2022 through February 2023, Vietnamese rice prices, the biggest source of Philippine rice imports, have been on an uptrend. (Figure 5, topmost chart)
A rice crisis 2.0 could be the next epicenter of the mainstream's version of inflation. (Prudent Investor, 2023)
It is as if these events have been designed to condition the public for a prolonged bout of inflation.
Further, with OPEC and Russia agreeing to a surprise 1.5 million barrels cut in crude oil production, against the interests of the US, this should either diminish the decline or put a floor in oil prices. (Figure 5, second to the highest pane)
And a rebound in global economic growth should spur higher oil prices.
Above all, should the impact of rate hikes, expressed by the falling CPI via reduced credit expansion, result in a sharp drop in the GDP, one should expect authorities to bail out the system through aggressive deficit spending and massive liquidity injections by the BSP—a template used during the pandemic. (Figure 5, second to the lowest pane)
In this context, the sliding CPI should turn the corner and build upon the next upside momentum—to mark the third wave of this inflation subcycle which commenced in 2015. (Figure 5, lowest diagram)
And this subcycle represents first among other subcycles, which may constitute the age of inflation 2.0. (Prudent Investor, 2023)
____
References
Prudent Investor Newsletters, Philippine Core CPI Forged a New 22-year High! Signs of Peak 2nd Wave Inflation: Pullback in Bank Lending and BSP Injections, March 12, 2023 Substack, Blogger
Prudent Investor Newsletters, Robinsons Retail’s Record-Breaking 2022 Performance Reveals the Shifting Nature of Inflation, April 3 2023 Substack, Blogger
Prudent Investor Newsletters, Will Rice be the Next Source of Philippine Food Inflation? January 8, 2023 Substack, Blogger
Prudent Investor Newsletters, The 56-Year Philippine Inflation Cycle, December Headline and Core CPI Reinforce the Return to the Age of Inflation, January 8, 2023 Substack, Blogger
No comments:
Post a Comment