Thursday, January 28, 2016

Breaking: Philippine GDP 4Q 6.3%, 2015 5.8%



The Philippines economy grew an annual 6.3 percent in the December quarter of 2015, accelerating from an upwardly revised 6.1 percent expansion in the previous three months and above market consensus. For full year of 2015, the GDP Growth came in at 5.8 percent. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Philippines averaged 5.14 percent from 2001 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 8.90 percent in the second quarter of 2010 and a record low of 0.50 percent in the third quarter of 2009. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Philippines is reported by the Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board
The reaction at the Phisix for the past four session have been a dead give away.

This has been the dynamic since end 2015 to date. I called this the GDP week play. The Phisix either gets pumped or dumped a few days prior to the announcement. The action at the PSEi signals whether GDP will go up or down. It's only during the August meltdown where the GDP week play had been sidelined or interrupted.

With three days of frantic pump, the industry must have gotten some hints from the insiders.

Considering the recent financial market pressures, the Philippine government and the establishment will do anything to ensure of the sustained positive headline effects. I noted of this last weekend,
But given that the government has ensured that such critical statistical number has aligned more or less with the consensus expectations for the past three quarters, there will unlikely be a substantial deviance for the coming announcement. 
So what the GDP means is that everyone should stampede into buying severely overpriced assets so as to sustain the invisible redistribution or transfers, facilitated by BSP policies, from the public to the elites and the government.

Let us see if these cosmetic statistics will prevail over reality.

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