Phisix Goes Berserk, Storms to 7,800, Comparing 2013, 2015 and Today‏

Not even Brexit or the weakening Peso or slowing volume (Php 7.6 billion) has been able stop or temper the ferocious bidding dynamics.

And each ‘correction’ has been met by even more vicious and or violent buying! And correction can’t seem to even happen within the day!

Current price actions essentially represent the deepening and intensifying convictions of the one way street for Philippine stocks by the participants.

And perhaps this could be part of the prearranged inauguration backdrop for the new administration.

As of today’s close the Philippine 30 composite issue benchmark is just 4.1% shy of April 2015 record high!

The four year chart depicts the three critical highs: May 2013, April 2015 and the ongoing panic buying process

The PSEi chart has been intended to serve as template for the top issues that make up the PSEi.

As of Friday, these issues have accounted for 81% of the market cap weight. This means that price action of these 15 issues have essentially contributed the meat of the ongoing fiery meltup.

Note:

1 All charts are nominal peso based.

2 Market cap ranking according to Friday’s weights

3 Market cap ranking has been different during comparable threshold periods

4 Respective 2013 and 2015 highs have been marked by red arrows. 

1 SM

SM has marginally surpassed 2013 and 2015 record levels. Nonetheless the forceful push to attain current conditions.

2 ALI

ALI’s chart almost resonates with the PSEi. Again note of the violent push to current levels via parabolic price actions. ALI has yet to carve a new record.

3 JGS

Like SM and ALI, third ranked JGS have currently undergone a series of scorching vertical price actions.

However, it seems that JGS has either met an exhaustion point or could just be consolidating

4 SMPH

While SM and JGS appears to have hit a wall, the load of the current gains by the Phisix has been from ALI and SMPH’s eye popping blistering meltup.

This comes in the face of slowing eps growth

5 TEL

A big factor why the PSEi has not reached 8,147 given the fantastic gains by SMPH, JGS, AC, SM and AEV has been due to TEL’s bear market. But index managers have been earnestly trying to spike TEL’s price using 4G as an excuse

6 AC

Like SM, AC has marginally breached the April 2015 record. Again such record has been from Viagra stimulated price actions

7 URC

Another reason the PSEi has yet to breach 8,127.48. URC remains significantly off the highs of 2015. URC’s lagging performance shows why it become a drag on the fervent push to 8,127.48

8 AEV

 

AEV’s awesome push to new highs. Much of its parabolic gains has emanated from ‘marking the close’.

Today stunning 2.6% surge is an example.

9 BPI

 

Banks have also weighed on the path to 8,127.48. So the belated push! Push! Push!

10 BDO

BDO too has also been a laggard. So push! Push! Push!

11 MBT

 

MBT too. MBT has a history of short term bubbles. Nonetheless without banks 8,127 will be an elusive dream, so push push push!!!!

12 GTCAP

GTCAP has experienced less drastic price action. While GTCAP recently slightly surpassed the 2015 level, it has yet to show a meaningful breakout.

13 JFC

JFC was immune to the emerging market meltdown in 2013. The food company’s share prices soared even as the rest were sold down.

However, in 2015 it peaked ahead of the pack or prior to April 10.

Presently JFC seems in a consolidation mode. It has been drifting a little above the 2015 watermark. JFC has been one of the PSEi’s most expensive stocks

14 MPI

MPI used to be under the top 15. But because of its “infrastructure” story it has managed to move in a vertical fashion. It has broken past the 2013 (and 2009) highs. But MPI has a fantastic history of mini boom bust cycles.

15 GLO

GLO was also one stock that was hardly affected by the May 2013 selloff.

GLO experienced a remarkable runup going to the April 10 PSEi 2015 highs where it belatedly peaked. Ironically GLO gave back everything when it tumbled back to its May 2013 level in December 2015 and in January of this year.

Now it is making the same pre-April 2015 push.

So there are presently EIGHT issues or more than half of the top 15 at new record or drifting at 2015 record highs.

All eight issues have been products of violent pumping and pushing.

Even for issues below April 2015 highs, there have been current attempts to frantically pump them.

Are Philippine stocks reflecting on a new earnings boom? Are they also impervious to external risk? Have they been reflecting on the silent stimulus?

Or have Philippine stocks become totally unhinged to fundamentals?