Not
even Brexit or the weakening Peso or slowing volume (Php 7.6 billion)
has been able stop or temper the ferocious bidding dynamics.
And
each ‘correction’ has been met by even more vicious and or
violent buying! And correction can’t seem to even happen within the
day!
Current
price actions essentially represent the deepening and intensifying
convictions of the one way street for Philippine stocks by the
participants.
And
perhaps this could be part of the prearranged inauguration backdrop
for the new administration.
As
of today’s close the Philippine 30 composite issue benchmark is
just 4.1% shy of April 2015 record high!
The
four year chart depicts the three critical highs: May 2013, April
2015 and the ongoing panic buying process
The
PSEi chart has been intended to serve as template for the top issues
that make up the PSEi.
As
of Friday, these issues have accounted for 81% of the market cap
weight. This means that price action of these 15 issues have
essentially contributed the meat of the ongoing fiery meltup.
Note:
1
All charts are nominal peso based.
2
Market cap ranking according to Friday’s weights
3
Market cap ranking has been different during comparable threshold
periods
4
Respective 2013 and 2015 highs have been marked by red arrows.
1
SM
SM
has marginally surpassed 2013 and 2015 record levels. Nonetheless the
forceful push to attain current conditions.
2
ALI
ALI’s
chart almost resonates with the PSEi. Again note of the violent push
to current levels via parabolic price actions. ALI has yet to carve a
new record.
3
JGS
Like
SM and ALI, third ranked JGS have currently undergone a series of
scorching vertical price actions.
However,
it seems that JGS has either met an exhaustion point or could just be
consolidating
4
SMPH
While
SM and JGS appears to have hit a wall, the load of the current gains
by the Phisix has been from ALI and SMPH’s eye popping blistering
meltup.
This
comes in the face of slowing eps growth
5
TEL
A
big factor why the PSEi has not reached 8,147 given the fantastic
gains by SMPH, JGS, AC, SM and AEV has been due to TEL’s bear
market. But index managers have been earnestly trying to spike TEL’s
price using 4G as an excuse
6
AC
Like
SM, AC has marginally breached the April 2015 record. Again such
record has been from Viagra stimulated price actions
7
URC
Another
reason the PSEi has yet to breach 8,127.48. URC remains significantly
off the highs of 2015. URC’s lagging performance shows why it
become a drag on the fervent push to 8,127.48
8
AEV
AEV’s
awesome push to new highs. Much of its parabolic gains has emanated
from ‘marking the close’.
Today
stunning 2.6% surge is an example.
9
BPI
Banks
have also weighed on the path to 8,127.48. So the belated push! Push!
Push!
10
BDO
BDO
too has also been a laggard. So push! Push! Push!
11
MBT
MBT
too. MBT has a history of short term bubbles. Nonetheless without
banks 8,127 will be an elusive dream, so push push push!!!!
12
GTCAP
GTCAP
has experienced less drastic price action. While GTCAP recently
slightly surpassed the 2015 level, it has yet to show a meaningful
breakout.
13
JFC
JFC
was immune to the emerging market meltdown in 2013. The food
company’s share prices soared even as the rest were sold down.
However,
in 2015 it peaked ahead of the pack or prior to April 10.
Presently
JFC seems in a consolidation mode. It has been drifting a little
above the 2015 watermark. JFC has been one of the PSEi’s most
expensive stocks
14
MPI
MPI
used to be under the top 15. But because of its “infrastructure”
story it has managed to move in a vertical fashion. It has broken
past the 2013 (and 2009) highs. But MPI has a fantastic history of
mini boom bust cycles.
15
GLO
GLO
was also one stock that was hardly affected by the May 2013 selloff.
GLO
experienced a remarkable runup going to the April 10 PSEi 2015 highs
where it belatedly peaked. Ironically GLO gave back everything when
it tumbled back to its May 2013 level in December 2015 and in January
of this year.
Now
it is making the same pre-April 2015 push.
So
there are presently EIGHT issues or more than half of the top 15 at
new record or drifting at 2015 record highs.
All
eight issues have been products of violent pumping and pushing.
Even
for issues below April 2015 highs, there have been current attempts
to frantically pump them.
Are
Philippine stocks reflecting on a new earnings boom? Are they also
impervious to external risk? Have they been reflecting on the silent
stimulus?
Or
have Philippine stocks become totally unhinged to fundamentals?
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