July 29 Philippine Stock Market Review
It’s kindda funny on how things are turning out, obviously events based on market internals and macro economic fundamentals has conflated to pave way for what we have detailed in numerous occasions here and in my newsletters with bizarre precision.
The softer dollar, though on a lagged effect, has engendered for renewed interest in emerging market assets by foreign capital coupled with the anticipated orderly pace of monetary policy adjustments by the US FOMC plus the sturdy psychological optimism manifestly ingrained with local investors has jumpstarted the market to test its psychological resistance at the 1,600-level.
Yesterday, we noted that the bellwether index is faced with three resistance levels and evidently, today, the Phisix has hurdled its first barrier and stopped right at the portals of the second frontier.
With foreign money goosing the index and taking the centerfield of the action while the locals bulls flanking the bears on the broader market, these circumstances are exactly the prescription we envisaged as a requirement for a successful campaign for the market to scale new heights, and heretofore are materializing right before our very eyes!
SEVEN of the EIGHT major index heavyweights accounted for Foreign Buying except for Metrobank (+1.92%) that resulted to a cumulative net acquisition of P 136.602 million the second consecutive session of more than P 100 million worth of foreign buying. Foreign money has upped its share of participation to 63.7% of the total trades as today’s volume registered a hefty improvement on the surface with P 955.013 million or US$17.06 million, although cross trades and special block sales took up 39.4% of the trades.
Again of the 9 issues that make up more than 75% of the market capitalization of the Phisix only TWO were unchanged, SM Primeholdings and San Miguel A shares, while the rest, PLDT (+.39), GLOBE (+.59%), Ayala Corp (+1.85%), Bank of the Philippine Islands (+2.4%), Ayala Land (+1.81%) and San Miguel B (+2.17%), posted gains for the day that buoyed the index.
SENTIMENT was OVERWHELMING bullish; Advancers drubbed Decliners 58 to 20 or almost 3 to 1 ratio, ALL major subindices were in the Green, and the infusion of foreign capital was broad based, this aside from cumulative net inflows for the day. Moreover, total issues traded jumped to 122 even as average Peso volume per trade surged by about 63%, meaning that locals continue to expand trading, particularly buying activities on the broader market, while the increased volume per trade connotes participation of more institutional trades compared to retail based activities.
The PHISIX, so far, as of this writing, outperforms the region’s bourses whom are mostly, 10 out of the 15, in the red. Aside from the Philippines, India, China, Australia and New Zealand are slightly on the upside and could swing either way at the end of the trading session.
Since domestic investors are wont to the speculative side of the trade, the best performers today are the third tier issues, namely Lucio Tan’s Baguio Gold (+49.25%), Jardine Davies (+48.83%), A. Brown Company (+25%), ex-BW Fairmont Holdings (+19.35%), Balabac Resources, (+19.04%), Manila Mining A (+15.38%) and B (+14.28%), iVantage Corp (+13.63%), another Lucio Tan company, Tanduay Holdings (+11.53%) and Gotesco Land B (+10%). Again the fantastic moves of these companies are based on stories fact or fiction depends on how you want to view it. These times are the best for the 'children' and NOT for the professional investors.
The floundering Asian bourses today despite Wall Street’s upbeat performance could reflect on the coming infirmities with the US market tonight. With CRUDE OIL on a record-breaking run, the recent rally in the US equity markets seems vulnerable to further slips sans a major shock that could embroil ALL global bourses. So far the Philippine market has shown limited correlation or has moved divergently from that of the US markets, as an example the Philippine market is approaching its major resistance a 3 year high while the US benchmarks are treading on either new lows (NASDAQ) or testing its major support levels (S&P 500, Dow Jones). Although the recent animated moves by the Philippine market could induce some profit taking in the interim.
As the Prudent Investor has mentioned before, barring any seismic temblors that would likely affect world bourses, the underlying confidence in the local market as seen with the improving market internals are indications that the markets are headed higher over the short to medium term consideration.
It’s kindda funny on how things are turning out, obviously events based on market internals and macro economic fundamentals has conflated to pave way for what we have detailed in numerous occasions here and in my newsletters with bizarre precision.
The softer dollar, though on a lagged effect, has engendered for renewed interest in emerging market assets by foreign capital coupled with the anticipated orderly pace of monetary policy adjustments by the US FOMC plus the sturdy psychological optimism manifestly ingrained with local investors has jumpstarted the market to test its psychological resistance at the 1,600-level.
Yesterday, we noted that the bellwether index is faced with three resistance levels and evidently, today, the Phisix has hurdled its first barrier and stopped right at the portals of the second frontier.
With foreign money goosing the index and taking the centerfield of the action while the locals bulls flanking the bears on the broader market, these circumstances are exactly the prescription we envisaged as a requirement for a successful campaign for the market to scale new heights, and heretofore are materializing right before our very eyes!
SEVEN of the EIGHT major index heavyweights accounted for Foreign Buying except for Metrobank (+1.92%) that resulted to a cumulative net acquisition of P 136.602 million the second consecutive session of more than P 100 million worth of foreign buying. Foreign money has upped its share of participation to 63.7% of the total trades as today’s volume registered a hefty improvement on the surface with P 955.013 million or US$17.06 million, although cross trades and special block sales took up 39.4% of the trades.
Again of the 9 issues that make up more than 75% of the market capitalization of the Phisix only TWO were unchanged, SM Primeholdings and San Miguel A shares, while the rest, PLDT (+.39), GLOBE (+.59%), Ayala Corp (+1.85%), Bank of the Philippine Islands (+2.4%), Ayala Land (+1.81%) and San Miguel B (+2.17%), posted gains for the day that buoyed the index.
SENTIMENT was OVERWHELMING bullish; Advancers drubbed Decliners 58 to 20 or almost 3 to 1 ratio, ALL major subindices were in the Green, and the infusion of foreign capital was broad based, this aside from cumulative net inflows for the day. Moreover, total issues traded jumped to 122 even as average Peso volume per trade surged by about 63%, meaning that locals continue to expand trading, particularly buying activities on the broader market, while the increased volume per trade connotes participation of more institutional trades compared to retail based activities.
The PHISIX, so far, as of this writing, outperforms the region’s bourses whom are mostly, 10 out of the 15, in the red. Aside from the Philippines, India, China, Australia and New Zealand are slightly on the upside and could swing either way at the end of the trading session.
Since domestic investors are wont to the speculative side of the trade, the best performers today are the third tier issues, namely Lucio Tan’s Baguio Gold (+49.25%), Jardine Davies (+48.83%), A. Brown Company (+25%), ex-BW Fairmont Holdings (+19.35%), Balabac Resources, (+19.04%), Manila Mining A (+15.38%) and B (+14.28%), iVantage Corp (+13.63%), another Lucio Tan company, Tanduay Holdings (+11.53%) and Gotesco Land B (+10%). Again the fantastic moves of these companies are based on stories fact or fiction depends on how you want to view it. These times are the best for the 'children' and NOT for the professional investors.
The floundering Asian bourses today despite Wall Street’s upbeat performance could reflect on the coming infirmities with the US market tonight. With CRUDE OIL on a record-breaking run, the recent rally in the US equity markets seems vulnerable to further slips sans a major shock that could embroil ALL global bourses. So far the Philippine market has shown limited correlation or has moved divergently from that of the US markets, as an example the Philippine market is approaching its major resistance a 3 year high while the US benchmarks are treading on either new lows (NASDAQ) or testing its major support levels (S&P 500, Dow Jones). Although the recent animated moves by the Philippine market could induce some profit taking in the interim.
As the Prudent Investor has mentioned before, barring any seismic temblors that would likely affect world bourses, the underlying confidence in the local market as seen with the improving market internals are indications that the markets are headed higher over the short to medium term consideration.
No comments:
Post a Comment