Tuesday, August 17, 2004

August 17 Philippine Stock Market Review: What do they know which we don’t?

August 17 Philippine Stock Market Review: What do they know which we don’t?

A 180-degree turnaround from yesterday, foreign investors stampeded out of the market to afflict heavy losses on the Phisix which closed lower by 28 points or 1.76%. Foreign investors sold P 60.592 million (US $1.08 million) of equity assets a reversal from yesterday’s positive inflow of P 100.161 million (US $1.789 million) selling on all the blue chips except for Ayala Corp (unchanged).

In technical jargon, the Phisix has broken on the downside of the triangle formation (bearish reversal) and currently rests on the 50-day moving average support level, which means that either we see a bounce from the important support levels or we could see the market move lower in the coming sessions as indicated by the breakdown of triangle formation. I think that the balance is tilted towards the latter.

The mostly vibrant Asian bourses are reflecting the spectacular overnight gains in Wall Street with only four bourses (Korea, Taiwan and Jakarta) out of 15 in the Red. The Philippines is the largest decliner thus far.

Again except for Ayala Corp and SM Prime whom were unchanged for the session, the major market cap heavyweights Bank of the Philippine Islands (-2.43%), and Ayala Land (-1.85%) were the largest issues sold by foreign capital, followed by Globe Telecoms (-4.37%), PLDT (-1.92%), Metrobank (1.92%), and San Miguel B (-.71%). Foreign trades accounted for a significant majority of 60.76% of total output.

Today’s bloodbath was actually an extension of yesterday’s bearish market breadth. Declining issues routed advancing issues by 5 to 1 or 69 to 13, all industry indices were in the red with the Mining sector suffering the largest loss (-4.79%), foreigners sold more issues than they bought aside from the outstanding net foreign selling.

Since the Phisix has behaved divergently against Wall Street in the past weeks, could it be that foreign money sold issues locally to shift their investments to regional issues with heavier correlation to the US as the latter has been oversold? There are no adverse domestic developments to pinpoint for today’s carnage. Neither does oil seem to be the factor since crude oil prices have eased from its recent record highs leading to the surge in bourses around the world. One could only speculate on why foreign money suddenly decided to exit from the local market. What do they know which we don’t?


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