This is a fantastic update from Bespoke Invest on the performances of global equity markets for the first quarter.
From Bespoke, (all bold highlights mine)
From Bespoke, (all bold highlights mine)``The average year-to-date performance of the 81 countries listed below is 6.94%. With a YTD gain of 5.27%, the US is just below average. Only 12 of the countries shown are down so far in 2010. Three Eastern European countries are leading the way this year with the biggest gains -- Ukraine (58.87%), Estonia (41.36%), and Romania (29.89%). Bermuda is down the most with a YTD decline of 31.39%.
``Looking at just the G-7 countries, Japan is up the most so far in 2010 with a gain of 6.62%. Japan is followed closely by Britain (+6.13%). The US ranks third out of G-7 countries, while Italy has been the worst of the group with a decline of 0.18%. Of the BRIC countries, only Russia is doing better than the US in 2010. Brazil, India, and China have all underperformed the US. China is one of the 12 countries that is down."
Additional comments:
1. Data and commentary above describes only the current conditions. This means they exclude prior actions which has significant influences in shaping the present state of the markets. Such exclusions thereby distorts the overall perspective or does not give a good representation of the big picture.
2. Bull market in global stocks is clearly undergoing a rotation. Former laggards ('crisis' affllicted nations) are now mostly in the higher echelon, while former leaders are now in reprieve or among the "median" or mediocre gainers.
3. While BRICs have lagged G7 nations, the differences have been marginal. In contrast the BRICs lead G7 by a mile in 2009. However this appears to be changing, as BRIC seem to be regaining momentum. We can expect the BRIC to close this gap or go ahead by the next quarter.
4. Different folks, different strokes.
China's underperformance has been more due to government's applied strong arm tactics on the markets to contain bubbles. Ergo, government intervention has prompted for China's lag.
In contrast, OECD or G7 nations have governments providing continued support to their markets (QE). In short, China is somewhat applying actual tightening measures while G7 nations are relegated to rhetorical actions. Obviously, the divergence of policy actions has resulted to this short term variance.
5. Philippines, despite its recent breakout, remains in the lower ranks and importantly trails her closest neighbors (Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia). This implies more room for an uptrend.
6. Venezuela, which suffers from increased socialism, as measured in increased inflation (devaluation of Bolivar), remains on the upside. My point: high inflation does not necessarily mean lower markets, this depends on the state of the inflation cycle.
7. Contra Keynesians and Fisherians: Where is deflation??!!
Additional comments:
1. Data and commentary above describes only the current conditions. This means they exclude prior actions which has significant influences in shaping the present state of the markets. Such exclusions thereby distorts the overall perspective or does not give a good representation of the big picture.
2. Bull market in global stocks is clearly undergoing a rotation. Former laggards ('crisis' affllicted nations) are now mostly in the higher echelon, while former leaders are now in reprieve or among the "median" or mediocre gainers.
3. While BRICs have lagged G7 nations, the differences have been marginal. In contrast the BRICs lead G7 by a mile in 2009. However this appears to be changing, as BRIC seem to be regaining momentum. We can expect the BRIC to close this gap or go ahead by the next quarter.
4. Different folks, different strokes.
China's underperformance has been more due to government's applied strong arm tactics on the markets to contain bubbles. Ergo, government intervention has prompted for China's lag.
In contrast, OECD or G7 nations have governments providing continued support to their markets (QE). In short, China is somewhat applying actual tightening measures while G7 nations are relegated to rhetorical actions. Obviously, the divergence of policy actions has resulted to this short term variance.
5. Philippines, despite its recent breakout, remains in the lower ranks and importantly trails her closest neighbors (Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia). This implies more room for an uptrend.
6. Venezuela, which suffers from increased socialism, as measured in increased inflation (devaluation of Bolivar), remains on the upside. My point: high inflation does not necessarily mean lower markets, this depends on the state of the inflation cycle.
7. Contra Keynesians and Fisherians: Where is deflation??!!
No comments:
Post a Comment