Friday, May 01, 2015

Fed Atlanta Estimates US GDP 2Q 2015 at .9%!

At .2% 1Q 2015 US GDP has fallen below establishment expectations, so they go on passing the blame on the alot of things like the weather, labor strikes, strong dollar and so on.



Yet, the fog on 2Q GDP hasn’t seemingly been lifted. That’s based on the real time calculations of the US Federal Reserve of Atlanta's GDPNow. 


And strikingly, Wall Street's growth estimates appear to be on opposite poles with that of the FED Atlanta. Wall Street's current GDP projections have been at above 3%, whereas only .9% for the Atlanta Fed!

Here is the US Federal Reserve of Atlanta [bold mine] (as of April 30)
The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.9 percent on April 30. Real GDP grew 0.2 percent in the first quarter, according to the "advance" estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 0.1 percentage point higher than the GDPNow model nowcast. 
Has the Fed Atlanta's nailing down of the 1Q numbers been a beginner's luck? Or will Wall Street eventually downscale on their estimates?

And if those numbers don't improve, what will be the effect to the world economy?

No worry. Stocks will always go up!

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