3Q 7.1% GDP? Just Where Have All The Jobs Been?????????

You see, GDP has been growing so much for it to engender a monumental paradox—the rejection of the G-R-O-W-T-H story of the previous administration by 16 million people. 

So, they elected a supposed anti-establishment president who has been popularly expected to deliver superhero results via short-term actions predicated on violence and repression.

But because the establishment benefits from the G-R-O-W-T-H story (via mainly access to credit), this remains the embedded theme.

Worst, we have been made to believe in statistically constructed data, even if it departs from on-the-ground events.

Here is a simple question: With all the fantastic growth numbers, just where have the jobs been??????

 

It is said that when numbers are tortured enough, they will confess to anything.

In order to project higher growth numbers, Monster.com even revised its employment index last June.

So instead of negative, growth numbers during the given (2Q) period became positive. Additionally, because they revised the current numbers, the older set had been truncated. Here is Monster.com’s September revised data.

Nevertheless, even when Monster’s numbers had been tortured enough, the confession just didn’t happen.

First, Monster’s online job numbers grew by 4.08% (that’s nominal). Understand that 3Q NGDP was 9.3% (real GDP 7.1%). So from Monster’s data perspective real jobs growth at 1.98% (adjusted for government’s 2.1% deflator), jobs severely underperformed GDP by less than half the latter’s growth rate—yes that’s 7.1 % versus 2%! That’s an ocean of a difference!

Second, despite the massaging of data, 2016 improvements were hardly substantial when compared to 2015. Yes, 2016’s slightly better than online job performance hardly even reached the diminished highs of 1H 2015.  Even with adjusted numbers, the base can be used to infer the relationship between old data and the new data.

And from here it is evident that the 2Q improvement was, unfortunately not sustained, as 3Q growth rates diminished or momentum declined (10% July, 4.26% August and NEGATIVE 2.04% September)

In short, with all so much statistical growth just where have the JOBS been??????????????????

Monster’s performance can’t be said as isolated.

That’s because another major (biggest) online job provider has resonated with Monster’s performance.

 

My own weekly Thursday 12 pm tabulation of Jobstreet’s online posting has shown an even worse performance

Online posting growth has hardly recovered, year on year they have been NEGATIVE.

Again just where have the jobs been?

Has job recruitment shifted back to the old ways (traditional media)? Or have hirings been direct? How effective has the latter two been?

The simple economic logic is that lackluster job postings have signified a symptom of inadequate investments or investments that had been made that were less labor intensive.

Either way, this is just one of the major indicators that flagrantly contradict the G-R-O-W-T-H story.

Next. Government Revenues/Fiscal Balance.