Way back in June 2016 I predicted that the government’s anti-mining program will eventually fail. [Why the War on Mining Will Fail! June 26, 2016]
Mr. Duterte’s official visit to China in October of 2016 has already partially validated my expectations.
In a speech to implore his Chinese economic and political bigwig audience to invest in the Philippines, Mr. Duterte revealed the real reason for his opposition to the industry: Americans.
I wrote then: (bold original)
So by Mr. Duterte’s logic, it has not been that mining is inherently evil or “detrimental” to the country. Instead, since the Americans are evil, and since they are engaged in mining, hence mining by Americans must be stopped.
The crux of which, mining is a RACE or NATIONALITY issue.
[The Real Cause For The War on Mining Exposed! China’s FDIs Includes Huge Mining Investments; The War on Mining Has Ended! October 24, 2016]
It is important to understand the roots of the anti-mining agenda.
The other week, scion Ms. Gina Lopez, the chief of the mining industry’s government’s regulatory agency, the Department of Natural and Environmental Resources (DENR), ordered the closure of 23 mining firms and suspended 5 others. This initially had the blessing of the leadership.
But Mr. Duterte suddenly had a U-turn. In response to the industry’s appeal to the leadership, as well as, their request for a published audit which served as the basis for the DENR’s decision, Mr. Duterte backed by other cabinet members vetoed the DENR’s orders to allegedly observe “due process”.
The embattled Ms. Lopez then turned to media to exculpate or uphold her position.
While she admitted that Mr. Duterte will have the last call, she has gone to implicitly criticize the direction of the leadership’s decision saying that the government shouldn’t side with big business. Additionally, she claimed that though the DENR, the agency which she ironically commands, has been rich in funds, it has been prone or vulnerable to corruption.
Apparently, this meant that the bureaucracy was more powerful than her to control!!!!
Unless the effects of the opioid will get into the senses of the leadership, the Duterte regime will most likely side with the miners, for some basic reasons.
One. Part of the reported $24 billion bonanza of investments Mr. Duterte garnered from Chinese investors and politicos included massive investments in the mining industry. A full-scale assault on the mining industry would either deter Chinese money from pushing through with their proposed investments, or that any preference for Chinese investments over the locals would surely fire up political “nationalist” controversies that could affect the Mr. Duterte’s popularity ratings. The latter would be a taboo for a populist president.
Additionally, considering the frail state of government finances, mining closures are likely to exacerbate the Philippine government’s balance sheet conditions which even the Department of Finance seems to recognize.
Besides, one of Mr. Duterte’s premier confidante, who holds a key position in the cabinet, used to be a miner or was connected with the mining industry. Although this has been denied in public.
Nevertheless, the political kerfuffle hasn’t been plainly about the creed of “environmentalism”, which Ms. Lopez has been ardently trying pursue, but rather about political control over the dispensation or the allocation of resources.
As a side note, though environmentalism has been a forefront, or used as justification for socialism, as vividly articulated by a UN official in 2015: “At a news conference last week in Brussels, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.'s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism”—again it’s about control over resources. [Investor.com U.N. Official Reveals Real Reason Behind Warming ScareFebruary 10, 2015]
Public control of natural resources signifies a socialist principle. And even when under total government control, the next critical issue will be about the funding to get these projects running or in operation. Moreover, another issue will be the competition for position to run the public organization or who will decide how these resources will be utilized. Again, it’s all about power politics even under different forms of government.
The critical moment here will be when the government revenues fizzle out or will come under increased pressure to match expenditures. The exigency to finance the wanton growth in public spending will likely spur the government to close their eyes on environmental politics.
As a side note, interestingly, Mr. Duterte has also declared war on tax cheats. He does so by issuing a threat to kill them! Yes, this may be a jest for now. Could such signify as indications of the current tenuous or fragile state of government finances? The Bureau of Treasury has yet to publish December data which it usually doesat the first week of the month. Will they show another boom to boost the peso? Yet, the supposed joke would be put into test when the economy meaningfully slows. Time will tell whether the joke is on us.
So an increasing clash in the underlying agenda will eventually result to a broadening conflict between Mr. Duterte and Ms. Lopez. Eventually, such conflict will lead to Ms. Lopez’s departure.
As I have said before, Ms. Lopez has been used as a convenient tool for the ochlocratic dictatorship propaganda.
As a side note, because of the Surigao earthquake, Mr. Duterte flip- flopped anew to express support on Ms. Lopez’s orders to close Surigao mines.
The propensity capricious decision-making process, aside, I believe that the logic anchored on power politics and government financing will ultimately set the tone for the mining industry.
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