Quoted at the Philippine Daily Inquirer

Professor Ciel Habito quotes your blogger in his column today, here is an excerpt:

THE STOCK MARKET AND THE FOREIGN exchange market may be looking upbeat these days, but as I said last week, that shouldn't mean it's time to celebrate, gloat, and/or get complacent. Too many people, specially those in high places, would like us to believe that positive market movements are due to internal developments within our economy. The implementation of the expanded VAT, in particular, tends to be given more credit than it deserves for supposedly lifting market sentiment, and even improving confidence in the economy in general. It should be welcome news if there is indeed stronger confidence from the business community in our economic outlook. But are recent positive market movements in fact being driven by improved confidence due to internal developments within the country?

Fickle funds

Not quite, according to my friend Benson Te, an exceptionally perceptive market analyst whose contrarian analyses have consistently been affirmed and given him gloating rights once in a while. For some time now, he has been pointing out that developments in the domestic stock and currency markets largely mirror the trends in the markets of the entire Asia-Pacific region. One only needs to eyeball the graphs of the Asia-Pacific Dow Jones index and of the Phisix to see how closely they move together.

To read the rest of the article press on this link ...

Thanks Prof. Habito!

Copper To A Lifetime High, But May Fall Warns Dr. Faber

Copper prices soared to a lifetime high despite signs of global demand growth weakness, rising inventories and threats of the Chinese government to dump its reserves into the global market.

Dr. Marc Faber in his latest outlook notes that the declining rate of change of Global Currency reserves and crude oil demand may presage decline in global economic growth, emerging market stocks and industrial commodity prices.

Dr. Copper On A Tear

He also warns that anything could trigger a steep drop in copper prices and expects copper to decline by as much as 40%.

Copper inventories in the warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped another 8,594 tonnes to 73,434 tonnes in the week ended Thursday. That followed a rise in stocks of 31,975 tonnes in the previous two weeks, according to Reuters.

London Mercantile Exchange Copper stocks have also climbed from its recent record lows.

Moreover, the Chinese government has threatened to intervene to contain the price increase of copper. Last week it sold about 40,000 tons in China and has vocally threatened to unload more in London. According to MSN Money Central, China's State Reserves Bureau said this week it would auction up to 20,000 tons of spot copper next week and potentially sell 100,000 tons to try to suppress prices.

However, traders are taking the Chinese threats with a grain of salt. According to MSN Money Central “Many copper participants questioned the normally secretive SRB's intentions and thought the bureau was trying to quell the red metal's momentous rise by jawboning it down.

"It certainly feels like that's what they're doing," said a New York dealer, pointing out that while other regions were selling copper on the SRB's announcement on Wednesday, traders in China were buying it.

"And that made a lot of people very skeptical," he said.”

If Dr. Faber’s projection that world growth is indeed slowing down then in the coming months demand for copper should slowdown too. This means that current prices could have been fueled by speculative funds riding on the coattails of momentum. Hence it would be a propitious time for producers to go on an offtake hedge, considering that copper maybe peaking.

As for Copper investors, David J. DesLauriers of Resourceinvestors.com has this to say, “All of this to say that even if copper falls back to $1.80 or $1.60 or $1.40, it won’t matter, and shouldn’t make a difference to investors because none of these companies saw their shares rally on the way up anyway. Of course, knowing the market, the small producers, near-term producers, and developers will probably get beaten up nonetheless on the way down.”

“It is an unfortunate situation to find in which to find oneself, but companies who only produce copper as a by-product don’t need to share the same discounted-valuation fate – they should hedge, it is the only way to force analysts and the market to ascribe the value.”

Trouble In Paradise?

So you thought the Philippines is in such a mess huh?

Look at the pictures below

Xinhua/AP

BBC

Ah ah not Africa too. This is in France. According to a Xinhua report, ``French President Jacques Chirac has promised arrest, trials and punishment for those sowing "violence or fear" across France after arsonists struck from the Mediterranean to the German border and into central Paris for the first time....Youths set ablaze nearly 1,300 vehicles and torched businesses, schools and symbols of French authority, including post offices and provincial police stations in the tenth consecutive night of unrest across the country...

Incredible anarchy.

The Xinhua report continues``From an outburst of anger in suburban Paris housing projects, the violence has fanned out into a nationwide show of disdain for French authority. The unrest has come from youths, including the children of Arab and black Africans angered by years of unequal opportunities.”

And this has been going on for the 11th day according to the LATimes!

November 7 US dollar from Fund to High Yield Currency?

Key Benchmark Interest Rate			Currency
Country	Nov. 3, 2005	Year To Date Change	Year To Date Change^
U.S.	4.00%	1.75%	-
EURO	2.00%	0.00%	-11.80%
Australia	5.50%	0.25%	-5.52%
China	5.58%	0.27%	2.38%
Hong Kong	5.50%	1.75%	0.26%
India	5.25%	0.50%	-3.98%
Indonesia	12.25%	4.82%	-7.59%
Japan*	0.15%	0.00%	-12.59%
Korea	3.50%	0.25%	-0.80%
Malaysia	2.70%	0.05%	0.62%
Philippines	7.50%	0.75%	2.79%
Singapore	2.38%	0.92%	-3.80%
Taiwan	2.13%	0.38%	-5.46%
Thailand	3.75%	1.75%	-4.77%
*Since 2001, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has targeted the outstanding balance of the current accounts at the BOJ rather than the overnight call rate. ^Relative to the U.S. Dollar Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Thailand, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Central Bank of China (Republic of China, Taiwan), The People's Bank of China.

Table from Matthews Funds Asia

According to Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen, ``The evolution of the dollar from a funding to a high-yield currency is a monumental shift in the global currency markets. The cost of funding is particularly important for exchange rates. First, it will be much more expensive to short the dollar. Second, with global equity portfolios overweight on non-US equities, the opportunity cost of not hedging against currency risk rises with the cash and short-term interest rates in the US. Third, investor risk aversion is likely to rise. With inflation the main source of risk, I don’t expect to see bonds and equities exhibit as strong an ‘offsetting’ pattern as usual.”

Rising interest rates in the US has definitely provided a boost to the US dollar while closing the yield gap among many Asian currencies. Except for the Philippines which has gained from its domestic interest hikes, as well as formerly pegged currencies as China’s remimbi and Malaysia’s ringgit, it appears that the ‘carry trade’ have shifted from borrowing low yielding Euro and Asian currencies and long Asian equities or dollar denominated assets. The current fund migration towards global equities could be such a result.

Phisix Confirms Peso's Advance!

Today’s superb rally in the Phisix came about as forecasted in my latest outlook, which was principally anchored on the premise that the domestic stockmarket would eventually confirm the Peso’s dramatic rise. As of this writing the Peso was quoted last at 54.74 according to Bloomberg while the Phisix climbed a splendid 46.9 points or 2.39% on the backdrop of Php 1.204 billion turnover. The Phisix is the best performer among Asian bourses today!

Foreign money again was responsible for today’s torrid buying. Capital inflows from overseas investors recorded a net inflow of P 231.813 million with foreign activities accounting for 58.7% of the cumulative trades. Market breadth was essentially bullish with 63 advancers against 14 decliners while 34 issues remained unchanged. In all 111 issues had been traded, which is below the 120 threshold, a statistic I use to measure local sentiment. This suggests that the locals remained net sellers in today’s activities, still skeptical of the day’s positive developments.

Because foreign money were the pillars of today’s ascent, the heavy market caps performed with gusto. Imagine BPI was in the list of top gainers usually occupied by second or third stringers. By jumping 8.65% to 56.5 one of the country’s leading banks landed on the 5^th spot. Other heavy caps performed well except for ALI and SMCB which posted declines.

Naturally various reasons would be floated as to why the Phisix rose remarkably. Most of which will be centered on current events, particularly the implementation of the EVAT. While EVAT for me is essential for the country’s fiscal health, its influence in today’s buoyant trading could be minimal. Instead, the planned reforms to be instituted by the Philippine Stock Exchange could have had a positive impact on foreign funds. In April according to the disclosure, the Phisix will shift from a market based capitalization to free float based. This means that component issues will be selected by the measure of liquidity or tradability. I think that this is an important development because liquidity is an essential consideration in the investment choices of foreign fund managers.

In addition there would be some changes in the component roster comprising the major Philippine benchmark starting December 1. Ginebra San Miguel, Ionics, Philippine National Bank, Music Corporation and JG Summit will be replaced by Banco De Oro, Manila Water, SM Investments, Pilipino Telephone and Philex Mining.

The latest round of foreign led buying resembles the sharp rise of the Phisix last June 2003 or during the onset of the cyclical advance phase. I also think we are in a late in the cycle rally, where the country lagged behind the region’s earlier advances due to political obstacles and is bound to a catch up phase.

If I am right about the Peso and the Phisix, then this is the initial upside leg which could last until the first quarter depending on the intertwined performance of the US and Asian bourses. There are many opportunities still out there.

A Freeze on Mining will Lead to More Mt. Diwalwal Fiasco

The recent mining disaster at Mt Diwawal Compostela Valley which reported 18 fatalities is an example of what happens when mining is left to small scale local miners or to illegal miners.

Most of the bishops, priests and other members of the clergy who are anti-administration have been so due to their opposition of the passage of the Mining Act of 1995. They have adopted the leftist mindset in believing that mining should be left to the locals (xenophobia) and or that it is harmful to the environment.

However, they fail to realize that the local investors do not have the technology (for efficient and socially responsible mining) and the appropriate finances to undertake these capital intensive projects. By advocating a freeze on mining, they fail to understand too that high prices of metals would NOT DETER BUT RATHER INSPIRE ILLEGAL MINING to mushroom in a country richly endowed with metals and minerals! It is simply about economics. As long as it would be profitable to mine due to high metal prices, mining activities would continue to flourish, illegitimate or legitimate. Now with insufficient expertise, technology and finances, illegal mining would only lead to more environmental degradation and more deaths, as in the recent case at Mt. Diwalwal, a dichotomy to the cause which they have been fighting for. It is another case of a proposed cure which is much worst than the disease. These members of the faith should concentrate on redeeming the souls of their constituents rather than engaging in leftist politics.

Integration of Asian Financial Markets To Improve Philippine Markets

``Everything you can imagine is real." -Pablo Picasso (1881-1973) Famous Spanish painter and sculptor

The gradual integration of the Asian Financial Markets could be gleaned as one of the bright spots or prospects for the domestic capital markets as savings could be channeled for efficient capital and investment allocations on cross border opportunities, provide for stronger financial linkages, better risk sharing and productive investments that may lead to a more resilient economic growth.

The region which holds more than $2.5 trillion in foreign currency reserves has also turned into a substantial holder of sovereign bonds of advanced economies. Aside, Asia received half of the world’s net private capital flows to emerging markets in 2003 and rising to about two-thirds in 2004. These are concrete evidences of the emerging relevance of Asia to the global financial markets.

In a recent speech at Melbourne, Mr. Takatoshi Kato, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, enumerated several key areas where developments for future integration could take place:

``Intra-regional financial integration has lagged. For example, the extent to which investors in Asia have internationalized their portfolios by investing in other markets in the region remains quite limited. With a few notable exceptions, money and capital markets in this part of the world are clearly still fragmented and disjoint. The trend is evident across three broad asset classes:

``Data on cross-border banking show that the major foreign lenders in emerging Asia are generally European, Japanese, or U.S. institutions, notwithstanding growing interest in recent years of regional banks in cross-border acquisitions.

``Local stock markets also have a large international presence, but few foreign players come from the rest of Asia. And, foreign listings on Asian stock exchanges have been on a declining trend nearly everywhere.

``Finally, in spite of initiatives underway to promote cross-border holdings, regional integration of bond markets remains underdeveloped by most metrics. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the expanding issuance of foreign-currency-denominated bonds by Asian sovereigns and corporates is for the most part in U.S. dollars--and is marketed outside of Asia.

The initiatives to integrate and deepen capital markets could be clearly seen with the establishment of ADB’s Asianbondsonline, an ASEAN+3 initiative funded by the Government of Japan, which provides investors centralized access to information on the region’s 13 bond markets as well as the indexation of select ASEAN publicly listed companies into FTSE/ASEAN 40 and FTSE ASEAN. Both indices are meant for performance benchmarking and to “brand” ASEAN as an asset class. These vehicles would be available for retail and institutional investors via Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) or through derivatives ‘OTC’ contracts.

The share distribution of the participant countries comprising the FTSE/ASEAN portfolio based on free float and liquidity screened considerations according to the FTSE International. Singapore gets the heaviest weighting while the Philippines the least.

So far, according to BSP data, foreign portfolio flows into the country has mostly been from the Euro zone which accounted for $268 million of the $517 million cumulative outflows in 2004. ASEAN accounted for $137 million with Singapore taking up the bulk or $134.96 million while Hong Kong among the Asian Newly Industrialized Economies contributed $138.6 of the $138.87 million. With the prospective ETFs and future cross listings, we could probably expect inflows to country’s capital markets to expand incrementally.

Further, the region has also embarked on a currency swap agreement via the Chiang Mai Initiative, which aims to reduce foreign currency crisis, support foreign exchange reserves of member countries and provide sufficient liquidity and exchange rate stability within the region. The swap agreement was designed as a contingent support for countries experiencing a foreign exchange crisis to access foreign currency, mostly in US dollar, from another member country to bolster reserves until the crisis has passed.

Lately the Philippines signed an agreement with the Bank of Korea to swap $1.5 billion worth of local currencies. According to a Dow Jones report, ``In May, finance ministers from Japan, China, South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, agreed to increase the size of their US$39.5 billion currency-swap program, and individual nations have since been negotiating terms of their particular deals. South Korea, for instance, has expanded its swap agreements with Japan and China as the previous arrangements expired.” In short, the region considering its horrific financial crisis experience in 1997 has undertaken measures to insure itself against the probability of a relapse.

In the continuing efforts to further integrate and strengthen the region’s financial markets, Mr. Kato further noted in his speech that it would require lengthy reforms as to induce the much needed cross border investments, these includes ``enhancing information disclosure and accounting standards, strengthening the role of minority shareholders, supporting effective creditor rights, tightening the prudential supervision of financial firms, and strengthening court processes and the judicial systems.” As well as on the regulatory side ``harmonizing the laws, regulations, tax treatment, and market structures that still prevent investors--from both within and outside Asia--from building pan-regional portfolios.”

Lastly, developing the bond market would also require the marketability of other products such as Municipal and corporate bonds, as well as Mortgage securities and other related instruments. This should provide alternative avenues for fund raising, hedging as well as market based valuations on the underlying securities.

In addition, compared to the previous commodity futures market, particularly the defunct Manila International Futures Exchange (MIFE), which traded foreign and NOT local commodities; in my opinion, a genuine local commodity futures exchange that deals with the country’s major resources or crops should be in place.

Where economics 101 tells us that “markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity”, the establishment of a commodity futures market that allows for pricing, delivery, payment and credit would essentially benefit producers and farmers. Through market based pricing, the farmers or producers would be able to realize the full value of their harvest or produce, eliminate or reduce the role of traders and middlemen and undertake hedging positions for seasonal volatilities in order to reduce risk.

Chart Buys: First Philippine Holding and Atlas Mining

Two interesting charts that I would like to share with this week.

First of which I believe that First Philippine Holdings has crossed a major inflection point, from which a state of indecision as reflected by the symmetrical triangle as shown in the chart below have been recently broken.

First Philippine Holdings

While some may argue that the developments in First Philippine Holdings (FPH) could be related to its proposed listing of its subsidiary First Gen or due to its dividend (P 1 cash ex-date October 18, special cash P 1 ex-date October 18), my inclination is that both these issues has little to do with the present breakout. I have been fundamentally bullish on the issue primarily because the company deals profitably with the sectors that I think would be the prime movers of the Philippine economy, particularly the energy and the infrastructure sectors, alongside my favorite the mining sector.

As you will note from the above chart, FPH is an uptrend given its one year outlook. However, since the Phisix peaked in March due to the spate of foreign outflows, FPH has moved lower during March to June and effectively consolidated from July to the present. It has formed what technicians would say as ‘higher lows’ where the bears have been unable to push prices lower than the previous. In effect, the symmetrical triangle is a manifestation of a stalemate between the bears and the bulls. However, it usually suggests of a continuation of the underlying trend, which in FPH’s case is an uptrend.

Last week, FPH broke out of the “sphere of indecision” with Friday’s activities built on heavy volume and a spike in share prices up about 6%. It tested its resistance level at 44.5 but closed a fluctuation lower or at 44. I believe that the momentum has switched greatly in favor of the bulls this time with a resistance breakout due possibly next week.

I would recommend a buy on breakout on this issue as it crosses the 44.5 level. The resistance levels are as follows 46.5, 49.5-50, 53-53.5, 61.5-63.5 and a stop loss on a break of 40.5 or 39 being key support levels.

Atlas Mining

The second issue which I would like to share to you is Atlas Consolidated and Mining Corp (AT).

Since its peak in February, the copper-nickel mining company has fallen in line with its industry mates but unlike the others has resolved to keep its uptrend intact as shown in the above chart. Since its recent peak in late August, AT has been on a decline forming a bullish ‘falling wedge’ pattern. As you would notice in the past, AT has the penchant for short term spikes, which incidentally allows you the opportunity for trades, if history would rhyme.

On Friday, it broke out of the falling wedge pattern on heavy volume. Aside, the technical indicators appear to support a next run. Relative Strength Index (RSI) shown on the upper window has bounced off its oversold levels while on the lower window the Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD) appears to have crossed, emitting bullish signals.

If Atlas would replicate its recent two spikes, I think it has an upside potential of 7.5 to 8 before retracing again. I would recommend a trade, buying at current levels and selling at the support levels, which should translate to about 30% in returns. Again, a stop loss at a break of the 5.2 support level considered, which translates to a loss of about 10%. In effect, your reward risk ratio is about 3:1.

The BIG Four Hedgers

Today’s argument is about gold mining hedges. Let us examine chart performance of the BIG Four according to GFMS “The industry’s “big four”, Barrick, AngloGold Ashanti, Placer Dome and Newcrest (who account for two thirds of the global hedge book in nominal terms)”

Barrick Gold

Placer Dome

Newcrest

anglogold ashanti

They may underperform but they are all on the rise...at least over the interim.

Mises.org: Free Markets and Social Welfare by Gabriel Openshaw

Our society’s penchant to ascribe effective governance or the lack of it to personality based politics leaves out the kernel of the country’s economic malaise. Mr. Gabriel Openshaw’s article published on Ludwig Von Mises (www.mises.org) correlates on a country’s economic straits, immigration patterns with that of social welfare states and those that adhere to free markets. As argued before, free markets and less governments are key to economic prosperity and NOT the other way around, Mr. Openshaw tells you why....

Free Markets and Social Welfare

by Gabriel Openshaw

Austrian utility and welfare theory [pdf] observes that all transactions in a free market economy take place only when both parties believe they will be happier as a result of an exchange. People act in ways that maximize their personal well being, subjectively understood. In contrast, in centralized economies the only way the state can enforce its economic decisions is through the threat of force for noncompliance, or fear.

We might say that capitalism is a happiness-based system where as communism (and all forms of interventionism) are fear-based systems.

This is a great idea in theory, but is there any way to validate its truth in practice?

If the thesis is correct, then we should expect to consistently see people wanting to move from fear-based economies to happiness-based economies.

According to the Index of Economic Freedom,[1] here are the 20 countries with the least economic freedom:

Congo, Republic of the Vietnam Guinea-Bissau Syria Suriname Bangladesh Nigeria Belarus Tajikistan Haiti

Venezuela Uzbekistan Iran Cuba Laos Turkmenistan Zimbabwe Libya Burma Korea, North

These are not typically countries that people want to move to. In fact, in a number of them it is against the law to leave the country.

Net migration statistics confirm that these countries have a migration outflow of minus 1.12 per thousand.[2] In other words, every year these countries see 1.12 more people moving to another country per 1,000 in population than people from another country moving in. Clearly, this represents overall dissatisfaction with life in that country (especially since these numbers would be higher if it weren't illegal to leave).

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the 20 most economically free countries in the world are:

Hong Kong Singapore Luxembourg Estonia Ireland New Zealand United Kingdom Denmark Iceland Australia

Chile Switzerland United States Sweden Finland Canada Netherlands Germany Austria Bahrain

Not surprisingly based on our thesis, these countries are much more desirable to live in and have a positive net migration inflow of 3.81 per thousand. And unlike those countries with extremely centralized economies where it was illegal to leave, in most of the economically free countries there are limits on immigrants allowed to move in due to overly high demand. If the restrictions weren't there on either side we would see an even bigger difference in net migration.

So our theory is holding: the most extreme centrally managed economies see either a net outflow of their population (or make it against the law to leave), while the most economically free countries see a strong net inflow of people from other countries.

This principle holds true not just for the extremes. Of the 154 countries that are ranked by the Index of Economic Freedom, comparing the top 77 with the bottom 77 you also see that the top half (more economically free) has an average positive net migration inflow of 0.83 per thousand, while the bottom half (less economically free) has an average negative net migration of minus 0.57 per thousand.

Migration patterns of people around the world clearly show that people consistently move from centrally-managed economies to free-market economies (and in fact the results of the analysis are statistically significant, with a P value of 0.0220).

Now, some may advance the argument that only rich countries can afford to be economically free, and thus it's normal to see migration from poorer countries to richer countries. This ignores the fact that rich countries are rich precisely because of their economic policies.

Here are the 22 "first-world" countries of Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, the United States and Canada, ranked by order of most economically free:

Luxembourg Ireland New Zealand United Kingdom Denmark Iceland Australia Switzerland United States Sweden Finland

Canada Netherlands Germany Austria Belgium Italy Norway Spain Portugal France Greece

These countries are among the most free-market-based in the world, including 7 of the top 10. Even the three least economically free of this select group (Portugal, France and Greece, ranking at 37, 44 and 59, respectively) are well above average in their free-market orientation.

If our thesis is correct, even among these we should be seeing migration from less economically free to more economically free. After all, if the spectrum analogy holds true, people will always gravitate toward the greater happiness found in more free-market economies.

Of these 22 first-world countries, the 11 most economically free have an average net migration rate of 2.68 per thousand, while the 11 less economically free have an average net migration rate of 2.01. In other words, even among these countries the most economically free show 33% more positive net migration than their less free peers. The principle holds.

Even within a country, we can see migration from more restrictive to more free market policies. In the United States, net migration is 23% greater to states that have a right-conservative governor than to states with a left-liberal governor, and in general the conservative political platform is more pro-free market.[3]

Even at the county level, 97 of the top 100 fastest growing counties in America voted conservative, or more free market, in the last election.[4] Again, the principle holds.

By analyzing the net migration of millions of people making individual decisions every year in every country around the world, we are able to objectively validate the thesis: that on the economic spectrum ranging from centrally-managed economies all the way to decentralized free-market economic policies, people will tend to shun central planning and gravitate toward the free market. In all cases, people are happier with freer markets and repeatedly demonstrate this by their choice of where to live.

---

Gabriel Openshaw [gopenshaw@yahoo.com] is business-development director in Fairfield, Iowa, and runs the blog LogicalOpinion. Comment on the Mises blog.

---

[1] Source: 2005 Index of Economic Freedom.

[2] Source: CIA World Factbook.

[3] Source: National Governor's Association & U.S. Census Bureau 2000-2004 Migration Statistics.

[4] Source: Los Angeles Times, November 23, 2004.

Australian News: RBA warns of 'meltdown'

The Central bank of Australia recently warned of the risks of a major financial meltdown. Is this another case of Boy who cried Wolf? Quoting David Uren for the Australian News...

"FURTHER rises in oil prices, the collapse of a major bank or an unexpected jump in inflation could be all it takes to send the increasingly fragile global financial system into meltdown.

"The Reserve Bank of Australia warned yesterday that the current calm in financial markets could be the prelude to a storm that could wreak havoc in the world economy. "