The Politics of Superhero Speeds Up: The Slippery Slope of the "State of Lawless Violence"

The acceleration and intensification of the politics of the superhero effect has truly been amazing

From the Inquirer

President Rodrigo Duterte early Saturday declared “a state of lawlessness” or “a state of lawless violence” to counter terrorism and strengthen the campaign against illegal-drug trade.

Speaking in a televised interview, he clarified “it’s not martial law but it would require nationwide, well-coordinated efforts of the military and the police.”

“I have this duty to protect the country. I have this duty to keep intact the integrity of the nation,” he added.

“There will be major checkpoints, curfews,” he said.

Around 4 a.m. Saturday, Duterte visited the site of the explosion at the Davao City night market that had left 14 dead and 67 wounded, based on the latest police reports.

My comments here will be predicated mostly from my previous notes.

When the government launched what seemed as conditioning of the public through assassination attempts at the leadership, I wrote, [War on Drugs: From Duterte’s Bounty to Alleged Counter Bounty. Death Penalty is a China Communist Model (June 11)]

One, if the administration has made this up, then they will be using drugs as a pretext to incite even more repression through violence. Or the government will use violence to justify the establishment of a dictatorship—all in the name of drugs. Drugs will serve as a false flag for Duterte's leftist ambitions. 

Two, if the allegation is true, then the war on drugs would mean blood on the streets. 

Violence will be bidirectional or a two way street. And violence will not just be about drugs but about repression, criminality and failure of law and order. 

Has current events been bidirectional violence or a false flag?

Now if bidirectional violence…. Philippine Political Theater: The Deepening State of War: From War on Drugs to Mining to Oligarchy! (August 15)

This is not a matter of public opinion. Rather it is the principle of causality—cause and effect—that will eventually prevail.

The ultimate consequence of a prolonged state of war will be to breed and foster tyranny, as well as to sow the seeds of revolution and or terrorism.

From the economic perspective, it is easy to see why this kind policy is self-defeating.

And contrary to popular delusions, violence has not signified a modern or sophisticated efficacious recourse on promoting civilization, but instead this represents an appeal to the primal instinct of dominance. 

Has barbaric policies resulted to locally fostered terrorism, thereby validating my prognosis? 

State of Lawlessness as defined by the government

From the Inquirer (emphasis added)

LAW EXPERTS on Saturday said the people’s rights should not be affected by President Duterte’s declaration of a “state of lawlessness,” as it is limited to calling out the military to help the police suppress violence.

Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II stressed the constitutionality of the declaration, which came hours after an explosion killed 14 people and wounded 68 others at a night market in Mr. Duterte’s hometown, Davao City.

Mr. Duterte’s authority under the declaration is limited to summoning armed forces to suppress violence “through ordinary police action,” according to Integrated Bar of the Philippines president Rosario Setias-Reyes.

Aguirre said the declaration did not amount to an imposition of martial law. Instead, it was a “precautionary measure” that had factual basis in the explosion.

The slippery slope of state of Lawlessness as interpreted by a domestic professor (from the same Inquirer article (emphasis added)

Ateneo School of Government Dean Antonio La Viña said the declaration provided extraordinary powers to allow Duterte to “wage a most efficacious defense of the nation in times of crisis, without being unduly straitjacketed by structural and bureaucratic restraints.”

La Viña explained in a Facebook post that summoning armed forces to combat lawless violence under the declaration is the “most benign” of the powers allowed under Article VII, Section 18.

Martial law is the power that is “most serious and carries the most impact on the social and political life of the nations,” he said.

But La Viña noted that the level of conflict warranting such extraordinary powers tends to “depend on this wide presidential discretion.”

He cited the Supreme Court’s ruling in David v. Arroyo that said “the power is by and large a discretionary power solely vested on the President’s wisdom.”

“For which reason, emergency rule becomes fraught with opportunities for abuse; a gateway to constitutional shortcuts. Once emergency rule is declared, the constitutional bonds are loosened that could create a window of opportunity for unrestricted power,” he said.

La Viña said the 1987 Constitution was designed with a pervading theme to “do away with all possibilities of strongman rule, no doubt a painful lesson of the Marcos dictatorship.”…

La Viña said the extraordinary powers of the President could be considered, at best, “a necessary evil.”

But he cautioned that “extraordinary powers should only be invoked as a last resort.”

“It should never be considered normal, must never be lightly granted by Congress, and if the right case or controversy comes, the Supreme Court have to scrutinize this carefully,” he said.

While there exists the “ever-present possibility” of the slippery slope of frequently invoking emergency rule, La Viña said: “For now, [Mr.] Duterte’s declaration does not appear to lead us to that slope, but we must be vigilant.”

Superhero politics based on a state of war leads to tyranny. As I wrote in Duterte Administration’s First Month: July Government Revenues Tumbles by NEGATIVE 4.6% as Deficit Swell by 57%! (September 1, 2016)

AS one would observe war on drugs and vices, corruption, media, mining, oligarchy, endo, the latest war on the “enemies of the state” (GMA, August 25) and coming forms of political wars… needs unwavering support from the military and police, which are of course, the essence of all forms of government.

And the substantial pivot for the outpouring of funds and of privileges to such militant institutions not only means the buying of support but of their loyalty. The critical objective is to attain the fealty of the military and police to the administration’s coming courses of actions.

And yet the ultimate objective appears as the establishment of a dictatorship founded on ochlocracy(government of mob rule).

Social policies that promote violence will have violence as an outcome—whether such has been an outcome of a false flag or of perceived injustices transformed into reprisal activities.

Benjamin Franklin was right:

Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.

Phisix 7,800: Trading Week of September 2nd Explained by One Diagram

The Phisix was down by .49% this week to close at 7,807 this abbreviated trading week. 

But the headline numbers don’t reveal of the real story….which can be seen below…

​While foreigners sold at the regular trade sessions (Php 7.61 billion up 115% week on week!!!), local price fixers went into panic buying at the closing bell for 3 successive days! Total amount pumped: 140.61 points or an astounding 1.81%!!!!! 

Thus, Project Maginot 8,000 defense—through the protection of PSEi 7,800 with a flurry of marking the close pump—signified MISSION ACCOMPLISHED (for the week)!!!!

Duterte Administration’s First Month: July Government Revenues Tumbles by NEGATIVE 4.6% as Deficit Swell by 57%!

The Bureau of Treasury updated its fiscal data to include the July—the first month of new administration.

 

Though I expected some boost to the data, given the inaugural month for the new administration, this just didn’t happen.

July collections for the Treasury (BIR, BOC and Non tax income) yoy fell by a substantial 4.6%! Since expenditures popped by +4.86% yoy, deficit ballooned by +57.36% to Php 50.667 billion over the same period!

 

Instead of using my excel, here is the Bureau of Treasury’s own chart depicting the current balances of the government.

Ok since this represents the first month then this could partly be about 'birth pangs' or transitional challenges.

But the downturn in revenues is unlikely to improve, because this has been a trend. As I wrote earlier: “That’s because falling tax collections have been a trend. The rate of growth of tax collections has been in downtrend since Q1 of 2015, or even from a longer period or from Q4 of 2012. 

Growth contraction appeared in FOUR out of the last 8 months!

For the 7 months of 2016, government collections were essentially flat (up only by a measly .6%) over the same period!

And even worse, the data reveals of a progressing divergence: A smoke and mirror between government collection and published GDP performance: “What a paradox: NGDP has been climbing since the low of Q1 2015 even as tax collections growth has been plunging to reach to its recent low (1Q 2016)!"

 

Amidst the much ballyhooed GDP,  government nominal revenues has been plateauing or flattening! Yes fact versus statistics!

In short, diminishing returns of the bubble economy have become apparent even in government collections.

Of course, part of this should signify the administrative component in term of collections efficiency or leakages. But in general, government revenues are likely to reflect on the real conditions of the economy

Additionally, the new government’s massive campaign on the war on drugs, where the economic effects of"crowding out" have already appeared even in government funding earmarks, PLUS the proposed freewheeling spending programs as declared in the SONA ensures that expenditures will zoom.

This comes even as massive curbs on businesses/enterprises activities (war on mining, oligarchy, endo, colorum, transport network vehicle services as uber and grab, vendors and more) underwrite the scenario of lesser economic activities for the private sector—thereby reduced tax collections.

Moreover, since government expansion comes in the face of reduced domestic production, imports will surge—as current conditions have presented.

 

This is will hardly be about G-R-O-W-T-H, but about substitution. Higher cost of doing business entails for import substitution.

With trade and fiscal balances in the red, which eventually may spillover to the current account, those derivatives enhanced GIRs will come under pressure. Strains from embedded dollar shorts will come out of hiding.

External liabilities will continue to bulge, as it has been during the past 9 months through June (Bureau of Treasury data here).

So instead of transitional challenges, July’s red numbers are likely to signify the baptism of fire—the onset of the deepening trend of red inks for government's fiscal balances.

Of course, this is not to discount interim monthly bounces.

Think of what this means to the peso, interest rates, bond prices and ultimately earnings, the real economy and stock prices!

And a last prediction, because of the penchant for the superhero effect, the government will most likely pursue HIGHER taxes (aside from debt and inflationism) to finance the growing financial gaps. This runs contrary to what has been said about the lowering of corporate taxes. They may lower corporate taxes (by a token amount) but significantly boost consumption related taxes.