Friday, May 07, 2010

A Black Monday 1987 Redux?

Was the plunge in the US markets, which allegedly had been due to "unusual trading activity" or from a rumored Citigroup Trader instigated 'quant' program selling, reminiscent of Black Monday October 19th 1987?
Intraday, the US markets fell by about 9% before recovering much of the losses but still suffered from a huge decline, a 3.2% for both the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500. (chart from Bloomberg)

Well opposite to the rising tide, we have most issues suffering, with only 28% of S&P 500 companies trading above their 50-day moving averages (courtesy of Bespoke)

Of course, perhaps one major difference is that as the market fell out of "fear" (VIX index spiked beyond the February high) along with a crumbling Euro (XEU), gold surged! And its also hardly about a sovereign contagion when US treasuries (TNX) were among the biggest gainers, via falling yields!


Anyway this was how October 19, 1987 played out. Could we see a rhyme or could this be a start of the the perma-bear scenarios?

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