The sexual molestation scandal has compelled the resignation of IMF’s Dominique Strauss Khan.
Now there are have been speculations on his replacement.
As of yesterday bookmakers have placed the odds on some possible replacement candidates.
This from the Economist
Here are some of the people viewed to be plausible contenders to replace Mr Strauss-Kahn, and the odds on their getting the top job according to William Hill, a British bookmaker. A win for a non-European would be a first for the IMF, as would the appointment of Christine Lagarde, who would be the first woman to head the organisation.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal describes part of how IMF politics works.
From the WSJ
Because the U.S. and European nations together have always held a majority voting stake in the IMF, that unwritten convention has guided the leadership process for the past six decades. Any executive directors on the 24-member board — representing the IMF’s 187 governments — can propose candidates for consideration, generally based on guidance from their home countries. In turn, the board has used informal straw polls — rather than formal recorded votes — to gauge support for the candidates. (Though formal voting isn’t used, the distribution of voting shares helps determine who can garner enough support as a candidate.)
At times, though, the U.S. and Europe have been divided on their options. In 2000, for instance, the European Union formally backed German deputy finance minister Caio Koch-Weser to take the top post at the fund, replacing longtime IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus of France. But the U.S. balked, leading the White House press secretary at the time to publicly oppose the choice. Many developing nations wanted then-Acting Managing Director Stanley Fischer, an American born in Zambia, to fill the job.
After a month of heated public debate, the IMF eventually settled on German national Horst Kohler, who was president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The U.S. has been expected to take a back-seat role in choosing the next managing director, focusing instead on its traditional role of picking the IMF’s No. 2 official. The current No. 2, John Lipsky, is slated to leave his post in August. For now, though, U.S. officials have put that process on hold considering the rush to fill the top post.
Since the IMF’s founding, all 10 IMF managing directors have come from Europe. The managing director is typically a former finance minister or central bank governor from a Western European country.
So the IMF has been mostly been a US-Europe turf, where the US has allowed Europeans to take the helm since.
Yet some have floated that the Kahn episode could even be a frame up.
Writes Bob Wenzel,
I continue to believe that the most likely explanation for him coming out of the bathroom naked is that he was expecting someone.
If he did make a call to an escort service than I fully believe a government agency could have set DSK up. What's more, this is a major French hotel, which means it his highly likely that French government agents are floating around the hotel as guests and employees.
The reasons: perhaps because he “broke free from the party line” (may have offended some vested interest groups) with his current policies or perhaps it was about the upcoming national elections in France or a combination of both.
A French poll reveals that about 57% believes that Kahn had been a ‘victim of a plot’
This only shows how politicking could have played a nasty part in the sordid Kahn affair which also reveals on the operational procedures of the IMF—which seems indistinguishable from any national agencies which redistributes resources politically.
Also the US-European political hegemony of the multilateral institution translates to the channeling resources to uphold their political interest. And this is why Emerging Markets are unlikely to gain a leadership foothold in the near future. The division of spoils belong to the winners.
Besides, the fundamental role for IMF’s existence have been exhausted, where the agency’s operations has shifted from ‘monetary’ to ‘developmental’.
As Cato’s Doug Bandow writes, [hat tip Dan Mitchell] (bold highlights mine)
The IMF's founding purpose vanished when the system of fixed exchange rates collapsed in the early 1970s. But instead of closing up shop (no jobs for international bureaucrats in that!), the IMF switched to promoting development. That is, it became a welfare program for Third World governments (and, more recently, for Eastern Europe and even Greece).
So maybe it’s not time to seek a replacement. Maybe it’s time for the IMF to stop meddling in the affairs of nations.
Maybe it’s time for the IMF to stop propping up collectivist regimes, bailing out unsustainable systems and promoting interests of political operatives behind the scenes.
As Leland B. Yeager writes in Cato (Hat tip Don Boudreaux) [bold emphasis mine]
I am inclined to concur in points made by Ian V squez (1997) and Allan Meltzer (1995) about activities of the IMF (and similarly of the World Bank). These tend to support government domination of economies, despite ``conditionality'' purporting to do otherwise; and politicization of economies increases the scope for rent-seeking. Thrusting debt onto poor countries, putting them onto a debt treadmill, ill serves economic development. Funds for bailouts create moral hazard, tending to delay reforming crisis-prone policies (see The Economist 1997b). New issues of SDRs, which the IMF staff likes to propose, accomplish international transfers of wealth in a way that most legislators do not even understand. Self-important international bureaucracies have institutional incentives to invent new functions for themselves, to expand, and to keep client countries dependent on their aid.
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