Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Phisix 6,700: Why the June 1st Banking-Financial Sector Pump

Obviously peeved by the last minute ‘dump’ last Friday, which had largely been centered on banks, index managers returned with a vengeance to put in place what had been lost. 


Using banks as key issues for the push, market manipulators pumped back the 1.2% to the PSEi index that had vanished due to Friday’s last minute dump (see blue rectangle). 


And 30.53 points or 33.96% of the June 1st PSEi’s close had been from marking the close. 

Curiously the 'panic day buying' and 'afternoon delight' stratagem which culminated with the 'marking the close' pump came with ONLY a very lean Php 5.79 billion peso volume (see right). 

Padded with Php 1.279 billion of assorted special block sales, total volume for the day still ended with a light Php 7.02 billion. 

And again the substantial index gains came with a NARROW 88 to 85 margin—in favor of advancing issues. (PSE quote June 1) [charts from colfinancial left, technistock right) 

So the oversold bounce appears to hardly persuade the broader market to participate (which again has been the dynamic since May 2013) 

What prompted this post has largely not been about the market manipulation angle, although it is important to mention this because they have been interconnected, but rather of the concentration of pump on 'select' financial issues. 


As you can see, yesterday’s 1.2% headline gains had been due to the financial benchmark's amazing 2.49% gains and which had been seconded by the holding sector's 1.36% 


And again the 34% contribution of 'marking the close' has largely been from finance (right) and holding (left). 

As I have been saying here, there won’t be a record without those illegitimate activities which both the PSE and the SEC tolerates. 

The big finance pump gave me an initial impression that the BSP may have been about rate cuts, but this apparently hasn’t been so. 

So with huge gains in the financial sector, I opened the charts of the bank and financial sector to see what today’s activities have been about. 


These are the 13 issues comprising the Bank-Financial index, I have noted a month back that about TWO THIRDs of them have been in bear markets 



That’s yesterday’s 3 issue pump led by BPI (4.29%), BDO (2.78%) and Metrobank (+1.68%). 

The charts above reveal of massive technical damages. Index managers would need a lot to work on to repair them. 

With market cap weights of BPI at 5.57%, BDO at 5.28% and Metrobank at 4.18% as of yesterday’s close, total weighting for these issues adds to 15.03% of the PSEi basket. Their significant share in the free float market cap based index makes them part of the top 15 issues in the basket. This explains part of the pump which obviously has been intended to paint the headlines but which the broader bank-finance issues hardly participated.

And proof broad market lack participation in pictures...
 



Except for AUB, a vast majority of the charts above have been lower than when I last posted them. 

Of course, the recent sell off CONTRIBUTED to their current plight. 
 
My next guess for yesterday's run up was about ‘liberalization’, but again the above says maybe not.

Yet the above speaks loudly of the quality of the recent record high--a hoax perpetrated to bamboozle the public into believing in the illusions of vast improvements in the nation's economic health conditions.

So it’s no wonder why index managers have been so desperate to fix the headline numbers.

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