A “Noble Lie” is knowingly propagated by politicians, often to advance an agenda. A Noble Lie is intrinsically paternalistic. The deceiver assumes that lying serves the best interest of society—Dr. Robert W. Malone
In this issue
Covid-19 Cases Surge Anew as Predicted! The Vaccine Elixir to Recovery and Growth: What Happened???
I. My Prediction: Mass Vaccinations Won’t Deliver the Economic Goodies
II. I Told You So! The Evidence: Mass Vaccinations, Runaway Cases of Escape Mutants!
III. Has the City of Mandaluyong Culled its Daily COVID Statistics Distributed by Vaccine Status?
IV. Naïve and Static Covid-19 Data Equals Reiterative Policy Mistakes
Covid-19 Cases Surge Anew as Predicted! The Vaccine Elixir to Recovery and Growth: What Happened???
A vaccine rollout will deliver economic salvation, proclaimed the mainstream! Or, economic reopening from vaccines will restore the growth dynamics!
From the Businessworld, January 7: The economy will lose P3 billion a week in productivity contributions due to the shift to the more restrictive Alert Level 3 in Metro Manila and nearby regions, government economic managers said on Friday.
From the Inquirer, January 8: There is a probability that Metro Manila will be placed under Alert Level 4 amid the rising number of COVID-19 cases, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said Saturday. According to Duque, the healthcare utilization in Metro Manila has not yet reached the threshold required for Alert Level 4 but noted that this may rapidly increase.
So what the heck just happened?
I. My Prediction: Mass Vaccinations Won’t Deliver the Economic Goodies
First, my predictions…
In June 2021, I wrote that the vaccine as elixir shibboleth represented a mass delusion propagated by the mainstream.
Coronaviruses naturally mutate. If so, how effective are vaccines against the original and mutant strains? And how lasting are its antibodies? More importantly, do coronaviruses build resistance against vaccines? Or do vaccines also cause or spur mutations in coronaviruses? What are the intertemporal side effects (adverse events) of these vaccines?
In any case, COVID-19 and vaccines are like a cat-and-mouse dynamic. It would seem like the current crop of vaccines chase the old strains while new strains emerge, rendering previous vaccines less potent and permeable to new infections or reinfections. A vicious cycle emerge.
Last November, I predicted a resurgence of COVID cases this January or February…
If durability issues signify a valid concern, COVID-19 cases may start to strengthen (when the 6-months protection period of the first wave of vaccination expires or substantially weakens) in the Philippines. The period for this to possibly happen is on January or February 2022.
Signs of seeding of COVID-19 cases have also surfaced in many countries in Latin America. Are they the next candidate for an outbreak?
The bottom line: When vaccines are not fulfilling their expected role, it would be a FOLLY to associate the COVID-19 vaccination rates with the economic performance.
Why a Vaccine-Induced Growth is an Illusion: COVID-19 Cases in Fully Vaxxed Europe and South Korea Surges! A Revival of Local Infection in February 2022? November 15, 2021
I also wrote in September, the City of Mandaluyong may desist from publishing its COVID-19 report card when infection numbers become skewed substantially towards the vaccinated. Back then, I called this the pandemic of the vaccinated.
Many have used the City's Covid statistical images to contest several Twitter posts promoting the vaccine apartheid. If the centralized political agenda to push for mass vaccination would be affected by the City's Covid-19 statistics, it may either desist from broadcasting these or could print only vaccine-friendly numbers.
Why the Vaccine’s Herd Immunity and the Bakuna Bubble Will Fail! September 13, 2021
II. I Told You So! The Evidence: Mass Vaccinations, Runaway Cases of Escape Mutants!
Next, the outcome…
From the ABS-CBN, January 9: The world recorded more than 2 million daily coronavirus cases on average between January 1 and 7 with figures doubling in 10 days, an AFP tally showed on Saturday. An average of 2,106,118 new daily infections were reported over the seven-day period, shortly after the 1 million case threshold was passed in the week of December 23 to 29, 2021. New global case numbers have soared by 270 percent since the highly contagious omicron variant was discovered in South Africa in late November.
So what happened to the vaccines? Were they not supposed to stop the transmission and achieve herd immunity?
Figure 1
Based on Google News, the global vaccination rate hit 50.4% of the world population as of January 6th.
While the distribution of vaccination remains skewed towards the developed economies, interestingly, it is the same economic group that has borne the bulk of the recent Covid-19 outbreak!
The Big O or Omicron was discovered first from four fully vaxxed travelers in Bostwana, Africa. Still, Africa has the lowest case counts!
Well, as predicted, Covid-19 cases in South America have also boomed!
Stunningly, Gibraltar, a British overseas territory at the southern tip of Spain’s southern Mediterranean coast, with a vaccination rate of 161% of its population, according to Reuters, has also seen a record outbreak! The excess rate of vaccination includes guest workers from Spain. Even before the emergence of the Big-O, the latest outbreak prompted authorities to suspend their Christmas celebration!
Amazing!
To be sure, there are no unvaxxed people to blame in Gibraltar!
Yet, the world has shifted from counting the fully vaccinated to boosters.
Based on the Financial Times Covid-19 tracker data, the national booster doses per 100 residents as of January 5-6 in cardinal order:
1 Chile 60.2
2 Iceland 55.9
3 UK 52.3
4 Denmark 52.3
5 Malta 52.1
6 Bahrain 51.5
7 Israel 46.8
8 Ireland 46.5
Here is how those boosters played out…
Figure 2
Booster jabs appear to have coincided with boosted COVID-19 cases! Incredible!
Interestingly, Israel and Chile are now on the fourth boosters! FOUR jabs in about a year! Stunning!
Vaccine boost to the nth is coming. The vicious cycle is here.
Charts from Our World in Data, a splendid site for various databases.
III. Has the City of Mandaluyong Culled its Daily COVID Statistics Distributed by Vaccine Status?
Figure 3
Events abroad resonate with data presented by a local government.
The City of Mandaluyong appears to be the only LGU that published local case counts distributed by vaccination status, which started from July 29, 2021.
However, their last update using this format was on January 6. Local authorities appear to have changed their publication goals. They presently publish only the distribution of Covid-19 cases by Barangay, excluding the distribution by vaccine status.
We can only guess that because events happening abroad resonate with the dynamics here, local authorities perhaps think that current data may push back on their thrust to vaccinate the entire population.
IV. Naïve and Static Covid-19 Data Equals Reiterative Policy Mistakes
Figure 4
Daily domestic Covid-19 infection has surged to a record 28,707 cases yesterday January 9th.
Nota Bene: Here are some caveats in the interpreting data.
The case numbers published by the DOH (and all COVID data overseas) signifies ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL data.
It DOES NOT distinguish several important things:
-the distribution of the caseloads from DIFFERENT VARIANTS (e.g. Alpha, Beta, Delta, Omicron…) spread over time.
-the distribution of the scale of use of the different TESTING KITS and the ACCURACY in detecting various variants over time.
-the distribution of caseloads of these viruses considering the DISPERSION OF THE VACCINES. Example, how these variants impact vaccinated individuals by different brands or technology (mRNA, adenovirus, inactivated virus, et.al.), by dose (first, full, boosters) and the period from the point of injections?
-the distribution of caseloads from different variants DISPERSED BY DEMOGRAPHICS, COMORBIDITIES and VACCINATION STATUS and TECHNOLOGY over time.
-the distribution of HOSPITALIZATION and DEATHS from different variants dispersed by demographics, vaccination status and technology, comorbidities and treatment stages over time.
-the dispersion of NATURAL and ADAPTIVE immunity in the population over time.
-the SOCIAL-POLITICAL conditions and weather during the outbreak.
These are just some of the many other aspects to consider.
Nevertheless, the crude data of covid case count shows the speed of the spread and its decline, and secondarily, the extent of coverage.
But we remain uninformed of the required information to adapt to pathological changes.
So the political approach remains “doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”.
First, authorities locked down the population supposedly to control the virus. Then, they gambled with mass injections (vaccinations). Next, having failed on these, they expanded to extend these shots, presently called "boosters". They also discriminate against the unvaccinated. When this fails, go back to the first.
Or, the policy response remains primarily anchored on the original template loop of lockdown, and vaccinate.
There appears to be little effort to suppress the virus through early treatment and natural immunity.
Needless to say, vaccines and reopening are unlikely causally related or mutually inclusive conditions.
Under this premise, the vaccine rollout can hardly serve as the foundation for economic growth.
Since all actions have intertemporal consequences, present health policies will have unintended and unforeseen socio-economic, health, and political repercussions.
The Vaccines’ Adverse Events signify just one of these. Official numbers in the US comprise over 1 million cases, involving 113,303 hospitalizations and 21,382 deaths as of December 31, 2021.
Nonetheless, there might be a silver lining. We share the hope that the highly transmittable but supposedly milder and less severe and deadly Omicron could provide immunity against the antecedent strains and transform COVID-19 into a common cold.
However, as usual, the WHO is against this idea. Without saying it, perhaps they know that under the leaky vaccine theory, mass vaccinations may continue to spur and exacerbate mutations.
Yours in liberty,
The Prudent Investor Newsletters
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