I loved the Jurassic Park movie series (Jurassic Park, Lost World and Jurassic III).
Although I didn’t realize that John Michael Crichton (October 23, 1942-November 4, 2008) was more than a highly distinguished author and an acclaimed film connoisseur (wikipedia.org), but as well, a medical doctor and importantly a contrarian socio-environmentalist.
In a fabulous speech in 2005, Complexity Theory and Environmental Management, his controversial views openly challenged the popular beliefs that appear to have engendered a preponderant influence in the direction of policymaking framework.
His basic premise was that science have repeatedly been used as a political tool to scare people into embracing unwarranted regulations. The problem is, “well intended” regulations operating under a complex environment tend to have undesired effects which has caused more harm than otherwise intended.
Two popular instances, which Mr. Crichton raised, that incited undue fears (and likewise entailed political repercussions…)
1. The Chernobyl disaster in 1986.
Media portrayed the Chernobyl accident as a catastrophe.
Yet according to Mr. Crichton,
``The initial reports in 1986 claimed 2,000 dead, and an unknown number of future deaths and deformities occurring in a wide swath extending from Sweden to the Black Sea. As the years passed, the size of the disaster increased; by 2000, the BBC and New York Times estimated 15,000-30,000 dead, and so on…
``Now, to report that 15,000-30,000 people have died, when the actual number is 56, represents a big error. Let’s try to get some idea of how big. Suppose we line up all the victims in a row. If 56 people are each represented by one foot of space, then 56 feet is roughly the distance from me to the fourth row of the auditorium. Fifteen thousand people is three miles away. It seems difficult to make a mistake of that scale.
``But, of course, you think, we’re talking about radiation: what about long-term consequences? Unfortunately here the media reports are even less accurate.
``But most troubling of all, according to the UN report in 2005, is that "the largest public health problem created by the accident" is the "damaging psychological impact [due] to a lack of accurate information…[manifesting] as negative self-assessments of health, belief in a shortened life expectancy, lack of initiative, and dependency on assistance from the state."
``In other words, the greatest damage to the people of Chernobyl was caused by bad information. These people weren’t blighted by radiation so much as by terrifying but false information. We ought to ponder, for a minute, exactly what that implies. We demand strict controls on radiation because it is such a health hazard. But Chernobyl suggests that false information can be a health hazard as damaging as radiation. I am not saying radiation is not a threat. I am not saying Chernobyl was not a genuinely serious event.
2. Y2K
Predictions like this
And this…
From Mr. Crichton, ``But once again, notice the urgent language. The situation is desperate, unprecedented action is necessary, ordinary values must be pushed aside, anyone who disagrees is dangerous and reactionary. Terror, fear, and the end of civilization.”
Mr. Crichton’s message was that when people get frightened (even from unsubstantiated claims), they become very vulnerable into allowing political forces to dominate them. People are willing to sacrifice their freedom in exchange for safety (via regulatory control).
However, Mr. Crichton lucidly articulates why most of the time regulations can’t hold up with a dynamic and complex environment.
The purpose of this article is to excerpt Mr. Crichton’s trenchant explanation of the Complexity Theory.
From Mr. Crichton’s speech (which is a highly recommended read),
All highlights mine
``In a word, we must embrace complexity theory. We must understand complex systems.
``We live in a world of complex systems. The environment is a complex system. The government is a complex system. Financial markets are complex systems. The human mind is a complex system---most minds, at least.
``By a complex system I mean one in which the elements of the system interact among themselves, such that any modification we make to the system will produce results that we cannot predict in advance.
``Furthermore, a complex system demonstrates sensitivity to initial conditions. You can get one result on one day, but the identical interaction the next day may yield a different result. We cannot know with certainty how the system will respond.
``“Third, when we interact with a complex system, we may provoke downstream consequences that emerge weeks or even years later. We must always be watchful for delayed and untoward consequences.
``The science that underlies our understanding of complex systems is now thirty years old. A third of a century should be plenty of time for this knowledge and to filter down to everyday consciousness, but except for slogans—like the butterfly flapping its wings and causing a hurricane halfway around the world—not much has penetrated ordinary human thinking.
``On the other hand, complexity theory has raced through the financial world. It has been briskly incorporated into medicine. But organizations that care about the environment do not seem to notice that their ministrations are deleterious in many cases. Lawmakers do not seem to notice when their laws have unexpected consequences, or make things worse. Governors and mayors and managers may manage their complex systems well or badly, but if they manage well, it is usually because they have an instinctive understanding of how to deal with complex systems. Most managers fail.
``Why? Our human predisposition treat all systems as linear when they are not. A linear system is a rocket flying to Mars. Or a cannonball fired from a cannon. Its behavior is quite easily described mathematically. A complex system is water gurgling over rocks, or air flowing over a bird’s wing. Here the mathematics are complicated, and in fact no understanding of these systems was possible until the widespread availability of computers.
``One complex system that most people have dealt with is a child. If so, you've probably experienced that when you give the child an instruction, you can never be certain what response you will get. Especially if the child is a teenager. And similarly, you can’t be certain that an identical interaction on another day won’t lead to spectacularly different results.
``If you have a teenager, or if you invest in the stock market, you know very well that a complex system cannot be controlled, it can only be managed. Because responses cannot be predicted, the system can only be observed and responded to. The system may resist attempts to change its state. It may show resiliency. Or fragility. Or both.
``An important feature of complex systems is that we don’t know how they work. We don’t understand them except in a general way; we simply interact with them. Whenever we think we understand them, we learn we don’t. Sometimes spectacularly.
Lessons:
FEAR is tool for bondage.
Before adhering to mainstream media or any politician’s angle of truth, think of possible unseen effects, untold truths or the veiled interest behind claims.
Remember, complex systems can hardly be controlled but can be responded with.
Lastly, regulations have in many cases unintended “harmful” consequences.
RIP Mr. Michael Crichton.
