Philippine Politics: Always Waiting For Godot

``In our age there is no such thing as ‘keeping out of politics’. All issues are political issues, and politics itself is a mass of lies, evasions, folly, hatred, and schizophrenia.”-George Orwell, Politics and the English Language

Philippine elections are near, and so the politicization trends have apparently been intensifying.

In contrast to the public, whom are seemingly severely obsessed with sensationalism, we think that the Con Ass is nothing but a diversionary ploy, because it lacks the time element and the legal channels and risks running the same parallels to the Honduran experience.

This means I don’t buy the balderdash that the highly unpopular PGMA will run anew or that the passing of President Corazon Aquino will “harm” PGMA’s political interest for the said reasons.

For me, the ‘Hello Garci scandal’ signifies as the apogee of any political capital damaging events that could have undone her, yet she persisted.

Media and its gullible captive audiences, simply loves to pick on fights that can’t go beyond superficialities. Worst, they promote abstractions (fair, good or evil, greed or etc…), when the truth is that political winds always see a shift in allegiances.

In politics (here or elsewhere), the rule of thumb has been ‘there are no permanent friends only permanent interests’.

As an aside, it would be downright naïve to also believe that Philippine politics runs on simple “partyline” platforms; as if ideology ever mattered.

Yet do any of the aspiring candidates have one?

Yes, every candidate wants corruption free “good” government alright, but unfortunately their aspirations operate asymmetrically on the platform of free lunch and an ever expanding bureaucratic based redistributive system of command and control. Regrettably, a system, which runs utterly in conflict to such supposed goals and which always penalizes the productive segment of the economy.

The reality is that politicians organize and run their bureaucratic network not by appointing people of virtue or by meritocracy but by political affiliations and interests.

Hence, policies are determined politically by populism or by political lobbying groups (hence the proclivity to corruption) or by the quirks of political leaders- preferences based on personal value priorities or marginal utility, familiarity (e.g. would favor industry from which the politico has experienced with), biases, perception and interpretation of events, ego, comfort zones and or preferred social networks (e.g. schoolmates, social organizations etc…).

Robert Ringer has this piquant quote to analogize our version of democratic politics ``You have to throw welfare programs at people — like throwing meat to a pack of wolves — even if the programs don't accomplish their alleged purpose and even if they're morally wrong." liberal Bennett Cerf quoted by Nathaniel Branden in Judgment Day: My Years With Ayn Rand” (emphasis added)

Political advertisements that dangle free this or free that or give away houses over media are fundamental examples.

The popular delusion is that the deliverance of the Philippines will come from a SAINT like leader. This shows that what matters for Philippine politics has been personality imagery, which signifies as the lotto mentality of short term gratification and is hardly about the realities of correcting the deeply flawed institutionalized political patronage system that relies on license based economic rents. Hence, the clueless citizenry will remain perpetually Waiting for Godot who in Samuel Beckett’s play never appears.

Moreover, since national election is just a few months away political forces have been mobilizing. And considering that the elite constituency of the Philippines have related or shared interests or direct/indirect affiliations, it is likely that unpublished alliances will determine the 2010 outcome.

This is where I think the administration and their allies will field multiple candidates, some camouflaged as the “opposition” or Trojan Horses.

So for clues of the possible contestants for the national elections, simply watch for the actions of the kingmakers involved in the ongoing Meralco episode as discussed in Bubble Thoughts Over Meralco’s Bubble.

Bottom line: The upcoming presidential election will likely have two known characteristics well described in quotes:

one, the road to hell is paved with good intentions, and

second, the more things change the more they remain the same.

Hence, I don’t expect any fundamental change in the political economy unless it is demanded for and in the interest of the political elitist segment of our society.

Has San Miguel's Shifting Business Model Been Linked To The Philippine Presidential Elections? Lessons

In San Miguel’s Shifting Business Model: Risks and Opportunity Costs, we opined that San Miguel's drastic "overnight" overhaul of its business model could have possibly been partly motivated by tactical political developments than just strategic financial or economic goals.

Here is what I wrote, `` the company’s chairman Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., who is founder of the National People’s Coalition and has ran against Fidel V Ramos for the 1992 presidency but lost, could possibly have politically associated strings to these acquisitions with the 2010 elections only a year away."

And this from today's headlines at the Inquirer.net...

``Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro could be the “dark horse” in the ruling Lakas-CMD party’s short list of presidential aspirants, Senate Majority Leader Juan Miguel Zubiri said Thursday.

``The other day, Teodoro, a member of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) founded by his uncle, San Miguel Corp. chair Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco, announced that he would run for president in 2010.

Including the fracas over the management control of Meralco, [see Beware Of The Brewing Meralco Bubble!], these actions appear to reinforce the connections of the corporate makeover to the corporate takeover to the political spectrum or the 2010 Philippine presidential elections.

What seems apparent is the solidifying alliance of the PGMA- San Miguel's Danding Cojuangco and possibly Imelda Marcos, wife of ex-President Ferdinand Marcos in preparation for 2010.

But this seems not limited to politics but likewise in the economic arena as the collaboration appears to work on securing economic rent from government imposed monopolies or heavily regulated industries.

Of course we maintain the previously risks enumerated from the San Miguel's business reconfiguration.

Nonetheless all these goes to show how the Philippine political economy functions- operating under the Keynesian framework, political elites battle for control over government ordained economic and political privileges.

And of course the only way to secure such bounty is to assume command of the Philippine government, with the affiliates or political constituents gaining control of the said institutions- we describe this as our "crony capitalist" paradigm.

Hence, the moral is that the belief in "virtuous" leadership to emancipate the Philippines from poverty bondage seems like an eternal fantasy-an impossible dream which almost everyone seem to fail to grasp.

The dismantling of the Keynesian political economic structures and a broader adaptation of economic freedom is required more than just an "honest" bureaucracy, whose underlying incentive is driven primarily by politics than by virtuous.