Chart from PanjivaThis from Businessweek's Joe Weber,
``In yet another sign that some key players are acting as if recession is on the run, more offshore manufacturers are shipping goods into the consumer-driven U.S. market, global-trade tracker Panjiva reports. The May trade data mark the third consecutive monthly rise in the number of shippers moving such goods, the first such Trifecta since the firm began following this metric in July 2007.
``“Increasingly, it feels that the worst is behind us,” says Josh Green, chief executive officer of the trade-tracking firm. Waxing cautious, however, he adds “Still, we have a long way to get back to the pre-crisis level of global trade.”
``Nonetheless, the data, released June 16, suggest that global trade has hit bottom and is taking the first steps toward recovery. Some 131,688 suppliers were active in May, up 2% from the number in April. The rises in shipper tallies give the Panjiva analysts heart, since such totals have been sliding since at least July 2007, when they counted 161,905 shippers moving goods into the U.S.
``The analysts point to other barometers of improvement, too. The percentage of significant manufacturers on a watch list – those in danger of going out of business – dropped a percentage point to 30% in May, for instance. This marked the first such decline since Panjiva started tracking this metric last September."
Read the rest here. (Hat tip: Mark Perry)
The recent rise in the Baltic Dry Index, commodities (CRB) and oil could be partly be due to this.
Nevertheless, our take has been that the collapse in global trade was mainly a consequence of the seizure "shock" in the US banking system which virtually shackled global trade flows by constricting access to financing.
Although the paradigm which underpinned the past boom won't be revived, present signs of recovery could have been due to the replenishment of inventory destocking.
As for how sustainable this would be remains to be seen.
