Oh, Gold!!!!

Gold (Gold)

Always believe in your soul

You've got the power to know

You're indestructible, always believe in, 'cos you are

Gold (Gold)

I'm glad that you're bound to return

There's something I could have learned

You're indestructible, always believe in

—Spandau Ballet (1982)

Oh, Gold!!!!

The financial media have recently bannered unprecedented heights attained by major equity benchmarks of developed economies. The adrenalin rush, however, overshadowed the feat of a critical financial asset: gold.

Of a few establishment media that carried gold, the CNBC reported: Gold jumped more than 1.5% on Friday to its highest level in seven years as investors rushed to the metal’s safety due to concerns over the global economic fallout from the fast-spreading coronavirus. 

 

Up 1.75% on Friday, February 21st, the (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) CME gold prices sprinted to a 7-year high to $1,648.8. For the week, gold was up by 3.93%, boosting year-to-date return to 8.93%.

Despite the spirited run, the USD gold has still been off by about 12.2% from 2011 high of $1,878.

The US financial media broadcasted the USD price of gold. But it did not cover the prices of the gold in OTHER currencies, where the action truly mattered.

What you are about to see is a defining monumental process in financial history!

Lo and Behold, Gold’s phenomenal rise against central banking’s Fiat Money standard!

Gold prices broke into ALL-TIME highs against almost all of the most traded currencies, in particular, the euro, the yen, pound, the Aussie dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and the New Zealand dollar! Like the USD, gold is within breathing distance of overtaking its previous apex against the Swiss franc.

Like a pandemic, gold’s upsurge had almost been ubiquitous. Gold’s insurgency spread to the emerging markets. Please do note that this is not a one-time event, but a process represented by their underlying trends.

 

Except for China’s yuan where gold prices seem about to test its breakout point, gold has likewise forayed into uncharted territory relative to the major emerging market currencies led by the acronym BRICS, specifically, Brazil’s real, Russian ruble, Indian rupee, and South African rand!

Gold’s rebellion has spread even to ASEAN.

 

It’s a new zenith for gold prices in the Philippine peso!

Gold prices in Malaysian ringgit, the Indonesian rupiah, and the Vietnam dong have also reached fresh spectacular heights! Though lagging, like her peers, gold prices in the Thailand baht appears on the way to set a new record.

In a publication at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), the Philippine central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), enumerated reasons for their gold reserves*: (bold mine)

The BSP holds gold for several reasons. First is for security purposes as it is a real asset and it is no one’s liability. Further, it is an attractive asset to hold during times of uncertainty as it is considered a safe-haven. Another reason is for diversification as it has a low correlation with other assets that the BSP manages. Still another reason is that investors prefer to own gold when inflation and inflation expectations are high as this precious metal is considered a hedge against accelerating prices. Finally, the BSP maintains a portion of its reserves in the form of bullion since the Philippines is a significant producer of gold.

*Joni Teves, Treasury Operations Officer, A Heart of Gold: Gold at the Heart of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Reserve Management, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas LBMA

The near-simultaneous upside price actions of gold against almost every currency has signified a CONVERGENCE.

A convergence of or against what?

For the time being, to cushion the global economy from a slowdown, which is being intensified by the emerging coronavirus COVID19 pandemic, many global central banks appear to have been synchronizing financial easing policies by slashing policy rates (and) or by revving up on asset purchases (monetary inflation).

For instance, major central bank rate cuts from last year (2019) to date: Fed: -75 bps ECB: -10 bps Denmark: -10 bps Australia: -75 bps Brazil: -225 bps Russia: -175 bps India: -135 bps China: -26 bps Korea: -50 bps Mexico: -125 bps Indonesia: -100 bps Philippines: -100 bps Thailand: -75 bps Malaysia: -50 bps Turkey: -1325 bps.

In aggregate, a total of 22 rate cuts as of last week had been implemented by central banks across the world in 2020 alone!

But the negative real rates from these, intended to maintain and support current credit positions, as well as to boost its use, won’t be sufficient to fuel gold’s run. It’s the outcome from it vis-a-vis real economic forces that shapes the socio-economic climate.

Whether street inflation surges or not, in reaction to the massive supply-side disruptions from a crucible of real adverse forces in the face of central bank actions, the escalating uncharted experiments on monetary inflation have pointed to the magnification of uncertainty on a global scale.

In an interview with Ms. Gillian Tett at Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) on October 2014, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan aptly remarked:

Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency, where no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it. And so that the issue is if you are looking at the question of turmoil, you’ll find as we always find in the past, it moves into the gold price.

The bottom line: Gold's uprising against central banking fiat currencies warn that the world is in the transition of entering the eye of the financial-economic hurricane!

Buckle up!

Will Turkey’s Unfolding Currency Crisis Signify as the Periphery to the Core Transmission?

Turkey’s lira crashed by 13.7% last Friday, plunged by 21% over the week and 41.1% in 2018. As a sign of the deterioration of the US-Turkey relationship, US President Donald Trump’s recently imposed sanctions on the Erdogan government. The crashing lira represents the “first currency crisis of the floating era”, according to a popular economist.

Say what? A currency crisis in the era of floating exchange rate regimes?! Have floating exchanges not been the Holy Grail?

How about foreign reserves? Have they not been designed to function as a shield against a currency crisis?

 

To stanch the lira’s hemorrhage, Turkey’s central bank has raised policy rates by a stunning 975 basis points in May and in June. Unfortunately, such aggressive rate hikes haven’t calmed the crashing lira.

 

That’s because Turkey’s money supply growth has exploded. A surge in debt levels fueled money supply's double-digit growth for years. Short-term external debt has grown faster than foreign reserves.

Turkey had been previously acclaimed for its infrastructure based ‘economic miracle’: an economic miracle that had been propped up by money supply growth through massive debt expansions.

Today it suffers from a currency crisis. It may be Turkey’s time to pay the piper.

Turkey’s predicament has not been in isolation.

 

Currency pressures have emerged and have been intensifying in emerging market currencies: Argentina’s dollar, Iran rial, the Russian ruble, the South African rand, Brazil real et.al as shown by the weekly chart above.  The Chinese yuan also fell.

Will Turkey’s currency crisis morph into a banking or debt crisis? Will it spread to the emerging market sphere?  

 

How will this impact Turkey’s major creditors, mostly European banks with some exposure by US and Japan banks? How will such dynamic impact external trade with Turkey?

Will Turkey’s currency crisis highlight the periphery to the core transmission?

Aggressive Interventions from Philippines and Emerging Market Central Banks

Actions speak louder than words.

Central banks of emerging markets including the Philippines have aggressively been intervening in the marketplace signaling an ambiance of heightened instability.

From the Bloomberg,

Just three months after the biggest developing economies sold dollars to support their currencies, policy makers from Colombia to China are moving to weaken exchange rates and revive exports as the International Monetary Fund forecasts the slowest trade growth in three years.

Colombian Finance Minister Juan Carlos Echeverry urged the central bank on Aug. 3 to boost minimum dollar purchases from $20 million a day, saying the country needs “more ammunition” to drive down the peso in the global “currency war.” The Philippines banned foreign funds from deposit accounts and unexpectedly cut interest rates in July as the peso hit a four- year high. In China, authorities lowered the yuan reference rate to the weakest since November, which according to Citigroup Inc. will create “headwinds” for other Asian currencies.

After spending more than $59 billion in foreign reserves in May and June to stem currency depreciation, developing nations are reversing policies as the European debt crisis outweighs the risk of faster inflation. South Korea and Chile may weaken exchange rates to make their exports cheaper, according to UBS AG. The IMF estimates global trade will expand at the slowest pace since 2009.

“Policy makers will become more aggressive,” said Bhanu Baweja, a London-based strategist at UBS. “The currency strengthening is in contrast with the state of the economy. That argues for much weaker foreign-exchange rates.”

Again the elixir of cheap currencies reveals of the deep seated mercantilist dogma espoused by central bankers. ‘Cheap currencies’ to promote exports have signified as the standard slogan in justifying ‘inflationism’. The real concealed reason has been to promote the interests of the elites.

The Philippine’s Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has been no exception.

From the same article,

In the Philippines, the central bank tightened rules on capital inflows last month by prohibiting foreigners from parking funds in so-called special deposit accounts. Policy makers also cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter- percentage point on July 26 to a record 3.75 percent, a move that Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said will help “temper” peso gains. The currency’s 4.6 percent advance versus the dollar this year is the best performance in Asia. The peso fell 0.2 percent yesterday.

There are many ways to skin a cat as the old saw goes. This means that should foreigners decide to put in money here, they can do so through many law circumventing options such as padding of local export receipts or transfer pricing and etc…, so the BSP’s action can be seen as superficial and symbolical.

None the less, given that the risks of a global economic slowdown seems to be intensifying, home bias has been the natural response resorted to by foreign investors. The possible exception would be from the capital flight dynamic in response to the Euro debt crisis.

All these inflationism resorted to by global central bankers will distort the real economy through the pricing system. This only means that boom bust cycles will be global and will intensify.