It is the absolute right of the state to supervise the formation of public opinion—Joseph Paul Goebbels, Nazi Propaganda Minister
In this issue:
Why Vaccine Apartheid Policies Will Fail!
I. Mass Vaccination: It is Not Science, But Political Bias and Ideology!
II. NCR Reaches "Herd Immunity": Covid-19 Cases Spike Leads National Case Count!
III. The Economic Costs: Disruptions in Say’s Law and the Division of Labor
IV. The Political Costs of Repression
Why Vaccine Apartheid Policies Will Fail!
It is election season! Authorities need to be seen by the public "doing something" in response to the record spike of COVID-19 cases!
Figure 1
To begin with, why exacerbate the miseries of a harried public? The recency bias, the inherent inclination to remember the most recent events, should likely play a critical role in the voting preferences of the public.
So, national and local authorities responded to the record surge of COVID-19 with surprising permissiveness in social activities. They resisted imposing a rigorous lockdown and also rebuffed demands to re-implement curfews.
That’s the good news.
But someone has to take on the blame. That’s the nature of politics.
Indoctrinating the public that mass vaccinations are the elixir to the pandemic, the leadership used this to justify launching a war against a defiant minority, the unvaccinated.
A health gulag, through a stringent lockdown, was imposed on them. The arbitrary mandates allowed only the privileged group access to commercial establishments and public transportation.
Instead of voluntarism and targeting the vulnerable, the hope is that such policies will instill fear, foster inconvenience, and provoke ostracization enough to compel everyone to comply.
In the name of health, such knee-jerk unilateral responses represent socialism at its finest.
The current political climate and popular opinion have transmogrified civil liberties into a privilege than a right, essentially condemning the centrality of the 1987 Philippine Constitution’s Bill of Rights: "No person shall be deprived of life, liberty, or property without due process of law, nor shall any person be denied the equal protection of the laws".
Sadly, these despotic policies are about to fail.
And that’s the bad news.
Sure, even if such measures should prompt a significant segment of this population to comply, the adverse consequences are manifold.
I. Mass Vaccination: It is Not Science, But Political Bias and Ideology!
As a starter, the current crop of experimental "vaccines" has barely proven its worth as effective in stopping transmission. For instance, the immune evasion capabilities of the COVID-19 variant Omicron have enabled it spread rapidly, according to several studies and reports (including the US CDC).
Failing that, the establishment shifted to the next goal post: to reduce severity, hospitalization, and death.
Please allow me to deal again with the inequality I presented last week.
Covid-19 Cases Surge Anew as Predicted! The Vaccine Elixir to Recovery and Growth: What Happened??? January 10, 2022
Figure 2
It is interesting to note that in perspective covering the crude data of the distribution of COVID-19 cases and vaccines among income groups, again, there seems to be little support of vaccines containing the spread COVID-19 cases globally.
Figure 3
Or, the inequality of vaccine distribution has generated a mirror image in Covid-19 cases.
And it seems hardly the question of the technical aspects, whether the class of strains, namely, Alpha, Beta, Delta, or Omicron, et.al., and their respective severity, hospitalization, and death rates, instead, the data implies that the more widespread the vaccination penetration rates, the greater the incidences of COVID-19.
More importantly, the evolution of COVID-19 cases and vaccines appear to be synchronous.
But here is the thing.
Death rates have also resonated with vaccine penetration levels, although death rates have grown slower than the previous waves.
Curiously, considering that low-income countries are supposedly lesser equipped to handle an outbreak, even low case counts should have fueled an acceleration of death rates. But that didn’t happen.
In sharp contrast to the high-income group, the low-income group with the least vaccination rates has the lowest death rates. The difference appears to be statistically significant.
So even from the secondary goal, vaccines as an elixir disappoints.
One can even conclude that COVID-19 could be a rich man’s disease!
Again, this is a snapshot of the overall picture. The details such as demographics, the scale of testing, treatment, weather, social and economic conditions etc., are not included to provide a sharper panorama of reality.
Figure 4
Interestingly, COVID-19 cases in Israel, which presently is on a rollout of the fourth jab, have exploded skyward! The tweet exhibits how the rigorous responses of their authorities to contain COVID-19 have only backfired.
When political biases masquerade as science, the blowback can be phenomenal. And we are talking about the immediate impact only.
Even some in the mainstream appear to be undergoing an epiphany.
Believe it or not, Eurozone authorities appear to have stunningly backpedaled on boosters!
From Fortune, January 12: Here's another influential voice joining the growing pushback against overdoing it on the COVID booster front: the European Medicines Agency (EMA). On Tuesday, EMA vaccine strategy chief Marco Cavaleri said there was still no data supporting the need for a fourth COVID vaccine dose. And even if multiple boosters do prove to be necessary, they would need to be spaced out in the style of annual flu jabs, rather than delivered every several months. He also warned that overly frequent booster doses could potentially lead to "problems with immune response."
Once labeled and denounced as anti-vaxx conspiracy theories, "problems with immune response" have entered the center stage.
Even more, despite record cases, some nations have considered downgrading the pandemic into an endemic phase! Or, adapt to live with COVID-19!
Yet, one should expect the unintended effects of lockdown and mass vaccination policies to surface unevenly over time.
II. NCR Reaches "Herd Immunity": Covid-19 Cases Spike Leads National Case Count!
Dynamics abroad have resonated locally.
The recent spike of COVID-19 cases to unprecedented levels led by vaccinated individuals has prompted the City of Mandaluyong to cease publishing its daily data of infection rates distributed by vaccine status. Mandaluyong was the only LGU that published this.
Concerned over the possibility that this may fuel hesitancy and pushback the thrust for mass vaccination by the central government, local authorities may have decided to discontinue it.
National health authorities have also withheld similar data or other related statistics like vaccine adverse event reports (VAERS) from the public.
Nonetheless, like a jigsaw puzzle, we can piece from various news to forge a picture.
From GMANews, January 15: Some 30% of residents in the National Capital Region (NCR) have yet to be vaccinated against COVID-19, an official of the Department of the Interior and Local Government said on Saturday.
NCR has attained the previously accepted threshold level for "herd immunity": 70% vaccination penetration level. Or, NCR's vaccination rates are at par with the high-income and upper-income group distribution globally.
But NCR has functioned as the recent epicenter of the recent spike in COVID-19 cases. (Figure 4, middle pane)
According to the independent research group OCTA Research, the metropolis domiciled 56% of the COVID cases on January 13th!
This development squares with the data of Mandaluyong before they ceased publication. It shows that instead of curbing the spread, the vaccinated population has become carriers themselves.
Yet, despite the misalignment between health policies and actual results, authorities continue to push hard for mass vaccination. WHY???
There’s more.
While OCTA sees NCR cases "slightly declining" ahead, the DoH stunningly projects a doubling of active cases by mid-February!
If the current push to vaccinate succeeds, considering the baseline of a 70% vaccinated population, why such forecasts? What must have gone awry which authorities have not been telling us?
Based on Our World in Data, the local vaccination campaign has intensified and perhaps peaked in the last two months of 2021. Its effectiveness should have been at its strongest, yet the nationwide record spike in COVID-19 cases. (Figure 4. Lowest pane)
Incredible.
From the perspective of peak vaccination, should durability issues re-emerge, another wave of COVID-19 surge may occur in May or June! Or at the nick of the national elections!
That said, how can the current health policies be successful when it seems to advance an undeclared political agenda?
Rather than discover and tell the truth, facts are concealed, dissenting voices suppressed, debate disallowed, media function as echo chambers of political interests.
As a side note, official data on COVID-19 cases depend on the people who took tests and reported to authorities.
Given the availability of antigen home kits, those who thought they only had flu, or those who refuse to test, the DoH may have been understating actual infection rates.
Of course, false positives are also an issue for those tested. Because of probable inaccuracy, the US CDC is promoting alternative methods to test for COVID-19 in place of the RT-PCR.
The implication is that spiking cases may translate to a widespread diffusion of natural immunity in the population better than vaccines.
III. The Economic Costs: Disruptions in Say’s Law and the Division of Labor
Seriously, can vaccine apartheid policies spur economic growth?
From GMA News, January 11: Malacañang on Tuesday said there are around 28 to 30 million Filipinos still not vaccinated against COVID-19. At a press briefing, acting presidential spokesperson Karlo Nograles said this number includes three million senior citizens or those aged 60 and above.
All actions have consequences.
At the outset of the pandemic, China locked down substantial numbers of her provinces. Back then, I warned…
Because the war on people translates to the disruption to the global division of labor, shocks to the demand and supply chains will occur.
On the demand side, prolonged suspension of trade and work would lead to diminished, if not loss of income, thereby curtailing expenditures and amplifying the risks of debt delinquency.
…
On the supply side, prolonged suspension of trade translates to the discoordination in the allocation of resources, revenue shortfalls, reduction of savings, capital losses and depletion, a rise in credit delinquencies, and most importantly, reduced output.
The Coronavirus Pandemic: Who is Panicking? More From the Year of the Rat: Will History Rhyme? February 2, 2020
Have authorities not realized that the unvaccinated population represents both producers/providers of services and consumers?
By throwing a significant minority of the population out of work or business, consumption will also slow. How can the economy recover?
To support the politically oppressed sector requires benefactors. Will the latter be consuming dispensable income instead of building savings? How will such loss of savings or capital decumulation help rebuild the economy?
With the loss of income, how will liabilities be repaid? Will this not affect the BSP lifeline-dependent balance sheets of the banking and financial institutions?
As seen elsewhere, will there be disruption in the supply network from labor shortages and dislocations? Will these aggravate the challenges in the labor segment hobbled by absences from COVID-19 infections or quarantines?
And if there are significant dislocations in output, will these not lead to higher prices, or even worst, supply shortages (empty grocery shelves)?
These are just some of the few economic questions surrounding such arbitrary political mandates.
IV. The Political Costs of Repression
And there will be social and political ramifications.
Instead of unity or harmony, the selective war on people in the name of health will drive a deeper wedge within the society.
Will these lead to mounting dissent or incite deeper social frictions as evidenced by protests in Europe, the US, Australia, and elsewhere as South Korea, where families of vaccine deaths have mounted a protest?
Will these not incentivize extortions and abuse of authority for the enforcers?
Will these not lead to increased criminality?
Even when vaccinated, social activities remain substantially restricted.
Should cases further surge despite the state of vaccination status, will vaccine mandates serve as a slippery slope to further curtail the economic and civil liberties and promote tyrannical governance?
But for some of the promoters of discriminatory mandates, it has not been smooth going.
The US Supreme Court struck down the US President’s Biden workplace vaccine mandate that helped pull down his approval ratings to a new low.
Even with COVID-19 cases raging in the US, reliance on lockdowns has also diminished. With the national elections also on the horizon, the plunging approval ratings of the Democratic leadership have compelled them to salvage political capital by resorting to reduced repression.
In the meantime, one of the largest news outlets in Denmark confessed last week "we failed", apologizing for uncritically parroting official messages of COVID-19 developments.
These are just some of the likely consequences of a repressive, tyrannical and divisive rule.
But ultimately, the boomerang from these measures will matter most, in the fullness of time.
The "Big Lie" attributed to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels:
If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.
Yours in liberty,
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