From Bloomberg,
Anyone who expects Apple Inc.’s growth to rebound after sales and earnings shortfalls last quarter is “living in denial,” according to David Nelson, chief strategist at Belpointe Asset Management LLC.
As the CHART OF THE DAY shows, shares of the maker of iPhones and iPad tablet computers have trailed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and a gauge of S&P 500 technology companies since the company reported fourth-quarter results a month ago.
“This is no longer a hyper-growth company,” Nelson said yesterday in a telephone interview. Apple’s products are now reaching customers who are less likely to upgrade as newer models are released, he added…
Let me first disclose that I have no interest in Apple [AAPL] since I don’t use Apple’s products nor am I a stockholder.
The reason I posted this is to show what in insurance is known as Key Man Risk—the effect of losing one important member of the team.
I have no judgment of Apple except to say that the market currently prices the company as undergoing an uncertain transition process without the presence of the Key Man—Steve Jobs. In short, Apple appears to be suffering from a Key Man Risk.
I think the same Key Man dynamics will apply to Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway [BRK/A and BRK/B] or to Bill Gates’ Microsoft [MSFT] or to any successful company whose image has been built as an alter ego of the owner-manager.
Nonetheless, I don’t think that the markets has entirely written off Apple, as all will depend on the performance of the current team (owners and managers) in serving the consumers, which should theoretically reflect on the company’s stock prices.
