Showing posts with label oil markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil markets. Show all posts

Thursday, November 04, 2010

Oil Markets: Inflation is Dead, Long Live Inflation

There seems to be an ongoing dissonance in the oil or energy markets.

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Bespoke Invest shows us that crude oil inventories “are now at their highest levels of the year”, while distillates and gasoline “both saw larger than expected draws in their stockpiles”.

Yet crude oil prices are approaching the April highs.

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And as mentioned above it isn’t just crude oil, such dissonance is likewise extended to the gasoline markets (Gaso).

The obvious answer is that the recent actions don’t just reflect on the consumption pricing model but from the reservation pricing model.

As we previously pointed out, commodities are not just meant to be consumed (real fundamentals) but also meant to be stored (reservation demand) if the public sees the need for a monetary safehaven.

Thus, we seem to seeing inflation dynamics incrementally playing out in the commodity markets.

Meanwhile, there has also been a small recent pop in the natural gas market (NATGAS).

I’d be convinced of the deepening risks of the inflation cycle, when Natural Gas chimes in. So far, this hasn’t been so.

Yet the odd part is that mainstream says inflation hardly exist. I wonder what kind of world they seem to be living in.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Decoupling In Oil Markets: Asia's Developing Thirst

Decoupling in oil markets as seen by the Economist.


According to the Economist, ``GLOBAL demand for oil is set to rise from 84.7m barrels per day (bpd) in 2008 to 105m bpd in 2030, says the International Energy Agency in its latest annual energy report. Transport will account for 97% of this increase as rising numbers of cars hit the roads of the developing world. Demand from these countries will overtake that of the industrialised OECD nations by 2030. By then, America, Japan and Europe will be using less oil than in 1980. But the thirst for oil will balloon in Asia—and in India and China in particular—where demand is predicted to rise by as much as 400% compared with 2008."

See our earlier June post:


Decoupling in Oil Markets: The Centre of Gravity in Energy Markets Has Shifted To Emerging Markets