Geopolitical Risk Theater Links: Russian Bombers Threaten Guam, ISIS Success Story?, Japan’s War Hawks, the Ukraine Freedom Support Act and more…

1 It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s a UFO? Or has it been a Russian military experiment? Watch mystery explosion that lit up Russian night sky - but nobody knows what caused it Mirror.co.uk November 19, 2014

2 Like stocks, ISIS bullish momentum keeps going: Report: ISIS Takes Control of a Libyan City Time.com November 19, 2014

3 Like stocks, could the bandwagon effect be the secret formula behind the ISIS successful streak? : Why ISIS is spreading across Muslim world CNN.com November 19, 2014

4 Potential peace between US-Iran? : 5 DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT BY NOV. 24 DEADLINE FOR IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS Wall Street Journal November 19, 2014

5 Doubling down on policy errors: Abenomics PLUS brinkmanship politics;

a) Japan’s War Hawks And Imperial Apologists Are Antagonizing Everyone; Japan's war hawks and imperial apologists are alienating the country’s allies and making a confrontation with its rivals more likely. Foreign Policy in Focus Business Insider November 19, 2014

b) Japan's Military Is Revving Up To Meet China's Growing Regional Ambitions Business Insider November 19, 2014

For a long time, Japan's military force was an exercise in contradiction. The country has ranked among the world's top military spenders, at almost $50 billion in 2013 — despite a constitution that explicitly forbids war (and even the maintenance of "land, sea, and air forces").

But in July, the cabinet of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved a reinterpretation of the pacifist clause called Article 9.

Without changing the constitution's wording, Abe made clear that Japan intended to step up its military prerogative in the region, allowing it to come to the aid of an attacked ally, for instance.

The country spends the equivalent of 1% of its GDP on defense, a figure that could grow after a decade of flat-lining; last year Abe's cabinet approved a five-year spending plan on a laundry list of military hardware: Three surveillance drones, stealth aircraft, 52 amphibious troop carriers, 28 next-generation fighter planes (the F-35) and 17 Osprey aircraft units.

The total expenditure from the plan is estimated to reach $232 billion to $240 billion.

Poor Japanese taxpayers, yen holders and uniformed pawns. If a regional war materializes, poor Asians. :(

6 Soliciting for money the geopolitical way: North Korea Is Making New Threats Aimed At The US Business Insider November 19, 2014

7 Reading current performance into the future? Why China won't be Asia's dominant power CNBC.com November 19, 2014

China may be Asia's economic powerhouse but it won't become the region's dominant power, according to a new report.

"In examining the factors that go towards the development of Chinese national power-and its ability to use it to achieve national objectives-predictions about a Chinese superpower with the ability to dominate Asia would be premature, if not improbable," said Paul Dibb and John Lee, authors of the report published by Australian think tank Kokoda Foundation.

The argument that China is already Asia's pre-eminent power based on its growing economic and military capacities is weak, the authors say. They expect the limitations of China's economic might, a lack of close bilateral relationships and weak military capability to keep the country from becoming an advanced political-economy that wields influence in the region anytime soon.

How about financing? After all, military might depends on resources.

8 More arms flexing by Putin: Russian Bombers Threaten Guam Four Tu-95 Bears circumnavigate Pacific island, site of major U.S. base Freebeacon.com November 19, 2014

9 During the latest US inspired revolt in Ukraine, who took the Ukraine government’s gold? Ukraine Admits Its Gold Is Gone: "There Is Almost No Gold Left In The Central Bank Vault" Zero Hedge November 18, 2014

10 Russia’s Putin attempts to defuse strains with the US; Putin: Mutual respect, non-interference will improve relations with US RT.com November 19, 2014 (italics original)

Putin said that Russia and the US share responsibility for ensuring safety and stability around the globe, and reiterated that Moscow was willing to work with the US following strained relations between the two countries.

Underlining the importance of the two countries’ roles around the world, Putin said, “Russia and the US have a particular responsibility to support safety and stability in the world and to counter global challenges and threats,” according to a transcript of his remarks reported by RIA Novosti.

11 With neocons back in power, so has the risk of World War III been raised. An evolving legal tit for tat by US-Russia on Ukraine that could send both parties to war.

a) Michael Rozeff Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 Lew Rockwell Blog November 19, 2014

Writes Mr. Rozeff (bold mine)

This proposed act is here. Its current co-sponsors are here. Among other provisions that sanction Russia, this Act commits America to reestablish the territorial integrity of Ukraine by providing advanced weapons to Ukraine’s government. This sets America against Russia, which supports Crimea as a Russian federal district. Russia also respects the eastern Ukraine Donbass republics whereas the U.S. does not. 

The U.S. already has committed America to Ukraine in substantial ways. 

A few days ago, President Poroshenko of Ukraine said 

“We are prepared for a scenario of total war… We don’t want war, we want peace and we are fighting for European values. But Russia does not respect any agreement.” 

The proposed legislation deepens the American commitment to Ukraine. It places America a significant step closer to direct confrontation with Russia. It places advanced weapons in the hands of a government that has attacked its own people and whose current leader is more than willing to conduct a “total war”. He sees the earlier fighting in Donbass as a prelude and warmup. He tells us that he has in mind a much deeper and more destructive application of force. The bill before Congress proposes to support him.

b) Michael Rozeff U.S. Is Creating A New Enemy: Russia Lew Rockwell Blog November 19, 2014

The Russian response, writes Mr. Rozeff (bold mine)

Russia will soon publish a revamped military doctrine. Rumor has it that the U.S. and NATO will be designated as threats or adversaries or enemies. This speculation is bolstered by the statements of a senior Russian Defense Ministry General.

Even without an official document having yet been published, we can say now that the U.S. and NATO policies, especially as they have transpired over Ukraine, have caused this hardening of the Russian position. The U.S. is creating a new enemy: Russia. This is purposeful. Only a big enemy like Russia can get Americans to accept the costs of the American military levied upon them. Only a big enemy like Russia can be used to justify a big military establishment. The war on terror no longer provides enough of a justification for a people tired of such losing propositions.

Although Obama conceives that he is in the right over Ukraine and Russia in the wrong, and although he conceives of sanctions as justifiable and measured, he has still nonetheless made Russia into an enemy. Russia is responding in kind. Obama’s sanctions came along with strong NATO rhetoric and a history of broken promises or betrayed understandings about the expansion of NATO. What Obama has done didn’t occur in a vacuum. The anti-Russian policy stance goes back to the end of the Cold War. If Obama wanted a friendly or cooperative Russia, he certainly didn’t achieve it.

13 Chart of the day: from Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative-Center for Strategic and International Studies AMTI.CSIS.org