Even
if the Phisix remains at 7,850, you and I witnessing a monumental
sign our time!
First
news.
The PSE adjusted the PERs of the 30 issue index yesterday. Perhaps
they now reflect on the end of the year 2015 performance. And guess
what? The average PER for the PSEi 30 have skyrocketed! They have now
reached 26.06! This accounts for just a few points off the 1996 level
at 26.14!
Worst,
the market cap weighted PERs have equally soared to presently reach
26.84! (market cap weightings based on Friday’s numbers)
Déjà
vu 1996!!!!!!!!!
Understand
that stratospheric valuations don’t just happen. Or they don’t
emerge from random events or from a vacuum. They are a function of prices
rising INTENSELY FASTER than the earnings which underpins these
securities!
They
are SYMPTOMS of a disease. And that disease is nothing more than BSP
(trickle down negative real rates or zero bound) policy’s induced
malinvestments!
Also
note that the credit bubble which has been financing these also
represents a symptom. The progressing credit bubble represents the
transmission mechanism of the said trickle down policy predicated on
the Keynesian framework of borrowing from the future to bolster
present GDP and eps!
All
actions have consequences.
And one of the repercussions has been to serially blow prices off
proportions with reality! To consider, “fundamentals” have also
been a product of credit based subsidies!
The
other ramifications can be seen on the mounting imbalances in
the balance sheets of the many listed companies, the dislocation from
coordinative functions of the production structure of the economy
(now weighted towards bubble industries), as well as the disruptions
of brought about by asset bubbles on people’s spending and saving
patterns and the reacceleration of CPI.
And
what just will be the consequences of the blow off phase?
Second
news: The fascinating and breathtaking “this time is different”
perspectives have only been escalating as seen from the accelerating
violent upside price actions of major issues comprising the headline
index.
Had
all this occurred in 2015, the PSEi would probably be at least at
9,000! We might even be at 10,000!
Note
that
ALL of the top 15 issues are presently undergoing violent price
actions.
The
difference is that the charts posted here are the MOST
expressive of this time is different. These charts have SPEARHEADED
the present ramp.
And
curiously while the top 15 have been conducting their vertical
renditions, the
price actions of many of the next 15 issues appear to have STALLED!
Hence,
because of this developing divergence, the headline remains at 7,800
despite the massive and passionate vertical pumps!
Here
is the most outstanding chart of them all.
SMPH.
Perhaps
SMPH may have found the Holy Grail! Not even 2013 have shown the same
tenacity in the context of price actions.
SMPH
from the long term perspective!
For
the FIRST time EVER! This time is different?
Let
me present to you the other awesome charts which highlights This time
is different!
SM
JGS
AC
AEV
JFC
(the most expensive PER of them of all at over 50s)
MPI
Caveat emptor!
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